SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday night. Radar is less active versus 24 hours ago with a few cells developing in far east- central Nevada. The air mass has dried out considerably since last night. Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continuing developing in the central part of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Southwest flow aloft will keep the moisture at bay tomorrow as a weak upper trough tracks across northwestern Nevada. Afternoon highs will be much cooler than what we have experienced with readings in the 80s, with some low 90s possible in the central sections. Winds will be breezy with some gusts to 25 to 30 mph.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon across northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the 80s with low 90s possible in central Nevada. Clear and quiet conditions persist during the overnight with lows dipping into the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday

Confluent upper level flow over northern California and Nevada on Sunday lead in to a quiet weather pattern for the area in the long term. Zonal flow over the region separates the upper level trough to the north over the northern Rockies and the upper level ridge attempting to build back into the Four Corner region and southern Plains. Aided by an upper level low working its way up the Pacific coast from the Baja of California, the ridge will slowly amplify over the SW CONUS through Friday.

Sunday afternoon there will be a low 10% to 15% chance for a stray storm over far NE Elko County, with any storms that do form most likely will be dry which will elevate fire weather concerns due to lightning strikes. Precipitation and convective chances are difficult to come by for the rest of this week over the area.
Monsoonal moisture will steer clear of the region through Friday.
Single digit RH values over Nye and White Pine counties Monday combined with potential 25-30 knot wind gusts prompt concerns for elevated fire weather in those areas.

Temperatures will slowly increase through the week as the ridge builds into the region from the south. Highs in the 80’s on Sunday will give way to low-to-mid 90 values Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday and Friday highs across the region will reach the upper 90’s with a few locations even touching triple digits. What is unclear at this point will be the effects of potential wildfire smoke over the area. At the time of forecast the Park Fire in northeastern California was emitting appreciable smoke over northern Nevada. The impact of smoke on the forecast will need to be monitored and updated as the week progresses.

AVIATION
VFR conditions exist this afternoon away from any thunderstorms that form over the southern portion of the CWA
Conditions could deteriorate over northern Nevada for the KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO terminals with the return of smoke from wildfires in California. MVFR and potentially IFR conditions (mainly KWMC- KBAM) may occur overnight as models indicate smoke drifting back over the area.

Afternoon VCTS are expected to be present at KELY and KTPH, beginning later in the afternoon, between 22Z and 00Z. Winds will be somewhat breezy in the afternoon with gusts 18KT to 20KT expected at all terminals, though convective wind gusts to 45KT are possible with any storms that move on terminal at KELY and KTPH. Localized blowing dust, small hail, and brief heavy rain fall will be additional concerns under any thunderstorms and periods of MVFR or IFR may be possible. VCTS chances diminish after sunset and should remain away from the region through Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Drier air has pushed across much of northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Enough moisture exists in east- central Nevada to allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These will continue into the evening hours tonight. By tomorrow, a weak upper trough will keep the southwest flow aloft with mainly dry conditions continuing. Isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in northeast and east-central Nevada. Winds in the afternoon will become breezy with gusts to 30 mph in some locations. This will bring elevated fire weather conditions across portions of 437, 438, 469, 470, and 425 due to winds and minimum relative humidity values around 10 to 15 percent. Conditions will remain dry Sunday with lighter winds. However, Monday is looking like another elevated fire weather day as winds are expected to gust in the 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidity values around 10 to 15 percent. This will need to be watched for any fire weather headlines. Look for afternoon highs to warm back into the mid to upper 90s by mid-week, though smoke from wildfires in California may limit warming by a degree or two due to the smoke.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.