Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingston, NV

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level ridge situated over the four corners continue to bring near record heat in most of central and northern Nevada today with major risk for heat-related illnesses as temperatures remain in the upper 90s to 100s. Various heat related products are still in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday across all zones except for the Excessive Heat Warning for eastern Elko County ending at 11 PM PDT Monday as overnight lows remain in the upper 70s combined with high temperatures around 100 degrees.

The upper ridge pattern is bringing in moisture over Arizona and the Baja that is moving northward into Nevada. Active monsoon weather pattern returns across much of central and parts of northeastern Nevada this weekend as PWAT values increase up to 0.8 to 1 inch, along with CAPE values increasing above 200 J/kg.
Today, much of the thunderstorms are expected to be dry, however the slow motion of these storms may contribute with some wetting rains reaching the valleys. Tomorrow, a more mix of wet/dry thunderstorms expected across much of central Nevada with dry thunderstorm reaching into northeastern Nevada. Storm motion is expected to be a little fast early in the day, but by the afternoon, the motion will slow down, allowing the potential for more rain reaching the valleys. Throughout the next week, the active monsoon pattern is expected to continue each afternoon with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across central and northeastern Nevada. As for Humboldt County, PWAT values increase up to 1 inch, however little to no instability is leading to little to no chance of active weather throughout the week.

Elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow across northern Nevada along the state border as winds expected to gust up to 20-25 mph with low humidity around 10% and very high temperatures. Red Flag warning is in effect today in central Nevada until 9 PM this evening due to dry thunderstorms. Over the week, fire weather conditions will begin to ease as the monsoonal flow will continue to bring moisture, causing minimum relative humidity to be 20% or above across the region by the end of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of near record temperatures over central and northern Nevada this afternoon and tomorrow. Moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions due to hot, dry, and breezy winds over northern Nevada today and tomorrow. High confidence of Red Flag conditions this afternoon and evening over central Nevada due to dry thunderstorms. Made changes to the POP and weather grids to better reflect the active monsoon pattern over central and northeastern Nevada.


AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. VCTS conditions this afternoon and evening over KELY and KTPH as monsoonal flow pushes into Nevada this weekend. Winds will be light below 10 kts with some breezy gusts up to 10-17 kts over the terminals, however strong gusty erratic winds up to 40-50 mph from nearby thunderstorms may be present at KELY and KTPH. CIG levels around FL100-120 with some as low as FL050 as cloud develops from increasing monsoon moisture. Active monsoon weather is expected across central terminals and into the northeastern terminals tomorrow and throughout the next week.


FIRE WEATHER

Active isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over fire zones 425, 426, and parts of 427 as monsoon moisture pushes into central Nevada with increasing instability. Red Flag warning is still in effect until 9 PM this evening due to dry thunderstorms. The storm motion is moving slow which may allow some wetting rains to reach the valleys, however probabilities for ample amount of precipitation is very low. Elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow across the northern zones due to dry, hot, and breezy conditions. Active monsoon pattern is expected to be more widespread across central and parts of northeastern Nevada tomorrow with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms.
Look for active monsoon thunderstorms to continue in the afternoons through the next week.


LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-036-037-038-039-040-041

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033