Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lucerne, CA

DISCUSSION

Today through Monday

We continue to see clear skies across the area, with a few cumulus clouds in the Sierra (south of Highway 50) and near the Coastal Range. Temperatures are expected to climb into 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with minimum RH values in the teens to 20s for portions of the Valley. Winds remain out of the south to southwest today, with a few gusts to 25mph possible. Periodic Elevated Fire Weather conditions this afternoon and evening due to the low RH values combined with the breezy south to southwesterly winds.
Continued Elevated Fire Weather conditions on Memorial day as we will see low RH values, with increased south to southwesterly winds. Highest winds will be on Monday, with occasional gusts of 30-40mph for the Sierra, Shasta County, and areas in the northern Sacramento Valley.

There will be a isolated threat for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for areas south of Highway 50 within the Sierra. Chances are low due to the limited moisture and instability across the area. Please be mindful of any holiday weekend activities that involve fire/flame; the fuels will only continue to dry as we dive into the dry season.

Tuesday through Saturday

A low pressure system moves away from the region with the back edge of the system bringing northerly winds, low RH values, and chances for showers/thunderstorms. Tuesday we will start to see the winds shift toward the north throughout the day.
Temperatures will be at or below average, with highs in the 70s across the area. Cooler temperatures expected in the mountains.
The winds fully shift toward the north on Wednesday, with gusts increasing throughout the day. Areas along and west of I-5 have the best chance to see gusts 35-45mph on Wednesday, with lower winds as you move toward the northern San Joaquin Valley and Sierra (south of Highway 50). Guidance over the past 24-48 hours has trended the winds lower along with slightly increasing RH values. The probabilistic range of the 25th-75th percentiles has gotten smaller, with little variability between wind, RH, and temperature values for areas in the Valley. This is an indication of some consensus on the winds, temperature, and RH values as the NBM has gotten a better hold of the track of the low pressure system. None the less, due to the low RH values and gusty northerly winds, fire concerns are still Elevated for the Valley late Tuesday through Wednesday. Confidence is around 40 percent for any fire weather related products during this time. We will continue to monitor conditions for Tuesday through Wednesday for the need of any wind or fire weather products as we move through the Holiday weekend.

Temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s across the area Wednesday through Friday, with a slight increase toward the mid to upper 80s by the weekend. The gradual warm up is due to the low pressure system moving away from the region and a ridge of high pressure building in.

Besides the heat, winds, and fire conditions we will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday for the Mountains and areas around Shasta County. The best chances lie in the Sierra both Wednesday and Thursday where instability and moisture at the higher elevations is the highest. A few stronger storms can't be ruled out, with the potential for small hail and gusty winds.

AVIATION

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with south to southwesterly winds this evening for the Sacramento Sites. Gusts to 20kts are possible at times this evening for MCC, MHR, SAC, and SMF. SCK and MOD will see north to northwesterly winds this evening.
Conditions go light and variable overnight, with clear skies.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.