Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sea Isle City, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Complex forecast in the near term as multiple areas of low pressure move across the area, but fortunately they are all pretty weak. Early this morning, expect dry conditions with increasing clouds, but patchy mist/light fog may develop where skies stay clearer longer. Temps bottoming in the 40s, except near 50 coast and urban centers.

During the day today, one weak wave of low pressure will ride northward along the coast, but its path has shifted a little further east, and less confidence in widespread rainfall than existed 24 hours ago. Still should get SOMETHING as it moves just east of us, with best chances late morning south and afternoon north, but probably not a washout of a day. With warmer air arriving as well, expect temps to manage the 60s for much of the region despite plenty of clouds and some showers, though 50s more likely especially north of I-78. Could even be a thunderstorm mainly across southern areas.

A break late this afternoon into this evening looks probable, though timing it is a little more tricky. In any case, another round of showers with the primary low and cold front should move through overnight. Again a risk of a thunderstorm, mainly south, but overall QPF thru tonight looks pretty meager, certainly below a half inch and in fact, probably below a quarter inch for much of the region
Lows dropping into the 40s, mostly
30s Poconos, near 50 along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will be the beginning of a temporary pattern change as the strong front departs and a modified arctic airmass is ushered into the region as a deep, strong upper trough arrives. As cold air advection increases on Monday under cyclonic flow, this should support a large strato-cumulus cloud deck to occur, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Thus, high temps on Monday are expected to peak by mid-day with highs ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s.

The deep upper trough begins to move into the region on Monday night with the trough axis located over East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some of the coldest air of the season arrives as 850 mb temperatures will be as cold as -10C to -12C. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will be below freezing for all on Monday night, except for areas along the immediate coast. Wind chills should be fall well into the teens and 20s.
Some guidance also indicates snow showers, especially in the Poconos and Lehigh Valley overnight. Looks like this is tied to lake-effect upstream, so wouldn't be surprised if occasional flurries survive the trip with such strong flow at the surface and the trough overhead. Temps on Tuesday will feel more like December than November, with highs only in the low to mid 40s (30s in the higher terrain). The other item of note, is that the Mid-Atlantic region will be situated between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure over northern Gulf coast. This results in a strong pressure gradient over the area. Blustery west-northwest winds are anticipated with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible before diminishing later in the day. The area will remain nestled within the upper trough through the afternoon before departing the region by Tuesday night. This will allow the airmass to moderate aloft. So, while it will still be quite chilly, low temperatures for Tuesday night will not be as cold compared to the night before.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
For Wednesday and Thursday...While the main upper-level trough has already departed, additional shortwave energy diving southeastward from the Midwest and Great Lakes should maintain a trough into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through Thursday. As this occurs, surface high pressure centered across the Southeast US will track eastward. A notable breeze looks to be present for both Wednesday and Thursday as a modest pressure gradient persists. A weak clipper system will also track across eastern Canada on Wednesday, with a weak cold front crossing through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Overall, this front looks to be moisture-starved. Aside of a stray shower up into the higher terrain, suspect much of the area will remain dry. Temperatures will be warmer compared to earlier in the week, but largely will remain a few degrees below normal.

For Friday and Saturday...The Mid-Atlantic region looks to be situated on the backside of the aformentioned upper trough as it gradually moves away later Saturday. High pressure still looks like it will be centered off to the west, so seasonably cool temperatures shall continue into the start of next weekend.
Fortunately though, this period looks to be mostly dry.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z...Mostly VFR, though patchy mist may result in MVFR.
LGT/VRB to nearly calm winds. High confidence.

Today
VFR in the morning
then MVFR/IFR conds in stratus and SHRA. Cannot rule out an isolated TSRA, especially around KMIV and KACY. ESE winds 5-10 kt, becoming VRB by 00Z. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Cold front passes through with SHRA and MVFR/IFR intervals. VRB winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W-NW late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Mainly VFR with occasional sub- VFR ceilings. A slight chance of a rain shower during the day with a slight chance of a snow shower at night. Gusty winds up to 25 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. Gusty winds expected each afternoon with gusts up to 20-30 kt, diminishing at night.
Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.

MARINE
Sub SCA conditions through tonight. Winds and seas increase some today into tonight and could get near SCA conditions at times but confidence not high on this. There will also be some showers and fog around today and tonight and even the risk of a few thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...SCA conditions probable due to wind gusts of 25-30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.

Tuesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with gales force winds possible on Tuesday and Thursday. Seas as large as 6-8 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.