Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Milford, WV

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:03PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:02 AM EDT (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Milford, WV
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location: 39.18, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 260720
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
320 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Synopsis
Upper level system Monday night. Cold front Tuesday night. High
pressure through Friday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 311 am Monday...

upper level ridge that brought the dry conditions this past weekend
in our area continues to move further eastward into eastern canada.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is moving nne across the mid
mississippi valley, with widespread light to moderate showers
streaming northward in the central ohio valley. As the upper ridge
continues to slide further east and the shortwave trough pushes into
the ohio valley this afternoon, moisture advection and broad ascent
will be increasing across the region. Currently, the western edge of
our area remains on the edge of a sharp moisture gradient, where
pwats are greater than 2 inches in central ky while values are
less than an inch in the tri-state region. However, as the
aforementioned trough continues to approach later today, pwats
are progged to increase to around 1.50-1.75 inches as southerly
flow increases. Thus, pops will generally increase from west to
east through the day, but the shortwave trough will be lifting
more northward as opposed to eastward, so only expecting a slow
eastward progression in the precipitation activity towards our
area. In addition, added slight pops for far northeastern areas
of the CWA late afternoon and evening as low level ese flow on
the southern edge of a surface high in eastern canada may allow
a few light showers to develop along the eastern slopes in
advance of the approaching trough.

Despite the increase in moisture later this afternoon and evening as
pwats increase and the column saturates, only light to occasional
periods of moderate rain is expected to develop. This will be due to
the better forcing remaining north of the area as an upper level low
embedded in a deepening trough in manitoba digs southward and pulls
the lead shortwave trough northward. However, there will certainly
be enough lift to maintain pops through the end of the near
term period. Another thing to mention is that convective
chances today appear to be extremely low as instability is
expected to be nearly non-existent, which will keep rainfall
rates in check. Given the thickening cloud cover and increasing
rain chances expected today, temperatures will be around 5
degrees below normal, as most areas struggle to reach 80f.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
As of 245 am Monday...

an upper level wave exiting to the northeast will lead to
decreasing pops from 12z Tuesday going forward through the day,
with weaker disturbances in the flow aloft traversing the area
preventing elimination of the pops. This is all ahead of the
main cold front that will work its way into the ohio counties
after 00z Wednesday, with passage through the mountains of the
cwa expected by 15z Wednesday. The closed upper low surface low
will track northeastward towards hudson bay, and with some
weakening of the system overall, the better dynamics will exist
well to the north of our area, minimizing the severe potential.

The lower level 850mb flow is likely to be less than 25kts with
the front and instability is lacking due to mid level warming,
and agree with the SPC diagnosis of general thunder for the
area.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 245 am Monday...

getting back into a drier pattern in the wake of the cold front
and high pressure building over the appalachians through Friday.

Flowing gradually transitioning from broad cyclonic to zonal
likely will not produce anything given the lack of column
moisture until the next cold front drops in, steered by the
500mb flow that will be much more active over canada than at our
latitude. The timing of any frontogenetic forcing with this
boundary has not been consistent in the long term models, but
should see some shower activity later in the weekend in our
zones.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
As of 142 am Monday...

surface high pressure in eastern canada will maintain fairly
quiet conditions through the remainder of the night. However, low
level ese flow on the southern end of this feature will maintain
low stratus along the eastern slopes, though this activity
shouldn't have any impact at ekn. Meanwhile, mid upper level
clouds are increasing from the southwest ahead of a disturbance
in the mid mississippi valley. This increase in cloud cover
through Monday morning should help preclude fog development
tonight across the region soVFR conditions should prevail.

By Monday morning, areas of light to moderate showers will move
across the ohio valley as the aforementioned disturbance lifts
to the nne. As the upper disturbance and associated showers
continue to approach the region from west to east through the
day, CIGS will gradually lower as the afternoon progresses.

MVFR CIGS are expected to approach the area as the atmosphere
continues to moisten this evening. Vsby restrictions will also
be possible as precipitation continues to increase in coverage.

In addition, periods of ifr conditions can't be ruled out during
periods of heaviest showers.

On and off showers will continue through the end of the taf
period as the upper disturbance swings through the region,
maintain MVFR and possibly ifr conditions.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: high through majority of the period.

Alternate scenarios: flight restrictions arising late Monday
afternoon as rain moves in from the west.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Mon 08 26 19
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
edt 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h l l l l l l h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 06z Tuesday...

ifr is possible in showers Tuesday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 rg
near term... Rg
short term... 26
long term... 26
aviation... Rg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV15 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair55°F50°F83%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKB

Wind History from CKB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE5E7E7SE9E9E10E13
G17
E8E10E7E5E5SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE4CalmNE4NE3NE3N5E5NW6N12N9NE10N10E7NE7NE7NE6NE5NE3E4NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN12N13
G18
NE7NE7N4NE4E4NE3CalmN73N53N6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.