Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Milford, WV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:33PM Friday January 24, 2020 1:02 PM EST (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 5:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Milford, WV
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location: 39.18, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 241523 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1023 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. More widespread rain Friday with rain and snow showers lingering into the weekend, transitioning into an upslope snow event at the end of the weekend, most likely in the mountains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1015 AM Friday .

Forecast generally in good shape. Several bands of showers will pivot through for the remainder of the afternoon with the final one associated with the actual cold front late this afternoon and into early evening hours. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch across portions of southeast OH and especially northern WV this evening which may result in localized high water. Some of the usual trouble creeks in southeast OH will have to be monitored for exceeding bankfull tonight as well.

Temperatures today were reworked using HRRR as a base which shows the usual downslope compressional warming effects from strong southeast flow. 50-60 kt low level jet will remain in place until the front arrives, though much of this will remain aloft given WAA upglide. Some downslope gusts to 35 kts on the west facing slopes are possible, however, and along the highest ridges in Pocahontas/Randolph counties where a wind advisory remains in effect.

As of 630 AM Friday .

Made minor changes to temperature and dew points this morning to reflect current observations. Lower levels of the atmosphere appear to be moistening in eastern Kentucky this morning, allowing for some rain to make it to the ground near the HTS airport. POPs will continue to increase over this particular area and further down the line today through the remainder of the forecast area.

As of 300 AM Friday .

Nearly-stacked upper level low meandering around the Mississippi River Valley will be the culprit behind today's active weather. At the time of writing, current observations show dew points still portraying dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Rain aloft will take some time to overcome the dry low levels, so precipitation overnight will be light to start off, becoming more prominent after sunrise along the Ohio River Valley and up the eastern fringes of the forecast area in the mountains once the atmospheric column moistens.

In typical fashion, the positioning of the low will cast a rain shadow upon portions of central and northeastern West Virginia for the first half of the day, then gradually filling in with higher POPs as the afternoon wears on. This area will achieve the warmest afternoon highs into the mid 50s, while the mountains and southeast Ohio will struggle to escape the 40s due to rain overhead, depleting efficient warm air advection from taking place. On the topic of temperatures, Friday morning lows over Randolph and Pocahontas Counties may allow for mixed precipitation to fall before switching over to all rain by midday. Maintained the trend started by previous forecasts with no chance of freezing rain during this time, so chose to hold off on any winter headlines. A similar event of rain/snow showers over the mountains is progged for overnight Friday into Saturday.

Strengthening low level jet accompanying the aforementioned low will punch into Central Appalachia by Friday afternoon, translating to very strong wind gusts over the highest elevations of our mountain counties. Forecast soundings and central guidance both suggest gusts possibly as high as 50 mph over the ridgetops if full momentum transfer is realized. Elected to go with a Wind Advisory starting Friday morning, aligning with WFO Blacksburg and Pittsburgh's Advisory in effect for the same timeframe.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 220 AM Friday .

Some chances of precipitation will continue through most of the area Saturday morning as a low pressure system north of the area moves to the northeast. Precipitation will fall as mostly rain, with chances of snow in the mountains, however, accumulations of precipitation will be relatively low due to the low moving off to the northeast. Chances of freezing rain may be possible in the mountains Saturday morning, but these chances will transition to snow in the afternoon. The chances of precipitation Saturday night will be more of a mix of rain and snow throughout the area. The mountains will have the highest chances of precipitation Saturday night with upslope snow, continuing throughout Sunday into Monday and dissipating by Monday night. There is disagreement in the models over a possible southern system Sunday into Sunday night, possible grazing the southern counties. However, due to various models, confidence remains low on whether this will happen.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 220 AM Friday .

Models start to show much more disagreement during this period. Tuesday should be dry with a possible system affecting the area sometime Wednesday through Friday.

Each of the models show small disturbances crossing the area Wednesday, however the timing of these differ between the models. The GFS and ECMWF have a ridge over the area on Thursday while the Canadian has a disturbance over the area. On Friday, both the GFS and ECMWF show low pressure systems, approaching from the west, north of the area Friday. The ECMWF shows the low higher to the north than the GFS shows. The Canadian only shows a small disturbance around the area at that time. Overall, there is a possibility of precipitation for this part of the period, however, there is low confidence in the timing and the type of precipitation that will occur.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 640 AM Friday .

VFR will open up the period for a fleeting time this morning before MVFR CIGs maneuver their way into the Ohio River Valley and the higher terrain. Portions of central and northeastern West Virginia will hold onto VFR conditions into the afternoon before succumbing to MVFR by late tonight. Strongest signals for visibility restrictions comes with the frontal passage late tonight as well as with heavier rain bands. A secondary drop in visibility plagues the Ohio River Valley region for the new Zulu day Saturday with wrap around moisture from the low pressure system. The mountains will also see a drop into IFR or worse overnight tonight.

Strengthening low level jet over the region today will inflict strong wind gusts during the day. Maintained LLWS for a few more hours this morning while the nocturnal inversion holds on by a thread, then introducing wind gusts at all terminals aside from HTS and PKB after sunrise. Gusts could approach 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon, subsiding overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds may be stronger than currently forecast at terminals outside of mountains. Timing of MVFR or worse conditions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M H H L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY . IFR possible in rain and snow showers Saturday and Sunday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ518-520-522- 523-526. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . MEK/CG NEAR TERM . 30/MEK SHORT TERM . CG LONG TERM . CG AVIATION . MEK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV15 mi70 minE 910.00 miFair54°F44°F69%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKB

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Last 24hrW3W6CalmN3NE3N3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmNE6NE5E9SE9
G23
1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW55CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W3CalmSE3E33W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.