Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilkesville, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:20PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilkesville, OH
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location: 39.18, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 191043
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
643 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Upper level trough passes overhead today, increasing chances
for afternoon showers and storms. Hot weather continues for the
first half of the week. Cold front crosses late in the week.

Near term through tonight
As of 215 am Monday...

moisture in the lower levels along with an upper level trough
passing overhead today will provide assistance for diurnally
driven thunderstorms to develop. However, light flow aloft will
should not support any severe storms although any storms that
train or back build over an area will have potential to cause
water issues. The northern sector of the area across oh and
into WV is in a risk for excessive rainfall today. This area
will be more prone late in the day with moisture advection due
to a frontal boundary to the northwest initiating development
ahead of the front. Pwats are near 2 inches creating sufficient
fuel for storms to produce heavy rainfall and potential flash
flooding in the aforementioned areas.

Any convection should be confined to the northwest sector of
the CWA mainly across oh and lightly into WV as well as along
the eastern mountain counties. With plenty of instability with
cape values >3000 j kg, and sufficient lifting we cannot rule
out thunderstorm development in other areas as well. The
frontal band to the northwest will become quasi-stationary and
meander just north of the region causing inclement weather and
increasing chances for shower and storms into Tuesday.

Temperatures will reach in the low 90's in some places, however
cloud coverage should keep other areas from breaking the 90
degree mark.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
As of 315 am Monday...

will continue to see hot and humid conditions Tuesday with
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Given rather modest
shear but decent instability would expect mostly multi-cellular
clusters of storms with a limited risk of a few damaging wind
gusts as well as heavy rain through the afternoon Tuesday.

Will likely see an MCS emerging into the middle ohio valley
Tuesday night in response to approaching compact shortwave.

While convection will likely be on the downtrend before it
crosses into the forecast area could see a limited damaging wind
threat primarily across far northwestern portions of the
forecast area.

Will see similar diurnal convection Wednesday, although this may
be somewhat tempered by stabilizing influence from overnight
convection.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 315 am Monday...

upper level trough and associated cold front approach Wednesday
night into Thursday morning bringing more widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms. Based on current overnight timing,
think severe risk along the front will be limited to isolated
gusty winds.

The region will gradually dry out and cool off from northwest
to southeast Thursday evening into Friday as the front slowly
sags south with mostly dry conditions expected into the weekend.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 640 am Monday...

clouds will cover most of the area from a decaying system to the
west. This will aide to suppress most fog development this
morning as well the accompanying dry air in the low levels.

Most sites will see a few patches of fog which will dissipate
slightly after sunrise. Mainly aVFR day across the region for
Monday and the rest of this forecast period. There are chances
for showers and possibly an isolated storm around pkb hts in the
early afternoon and at virtually any site later in the day,
however confidence is low on timing.

Light southerly flow changes over to westerly in the late
afternoon with gusts in the low teens. With high instability
and an upper level trough providing lift in the late afternoon
we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated storm near or
at any terminal during daytime heating as mentioned above. With
light flow and low shear any development should be sub-severe,
however storms have potential to train or backbuild with weak
flow. This could promote lengthly inclement weather such as low
cigs vis as well as gusty winds. Expect any convection to
dissipate around sunset and a better chance for fog development
for Tuesday morning.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: diurnal thunderstorms in the afternoon
could be more prominent and affect terminals, however
confidence and chances are low so the timing and mention of
them directly affecting sites where left out of tafs.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
edt 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency l l l h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h l m h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h m h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency m h m h h h h h h h h h
after 12z Tuesday...

ifr possible with showers and storms mid week, stratus and
valley fog redeveloping by Friday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Jp jz
near term... Jz
short term... Jp
long term... Jp
aviation... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
OHIO U/ATHEN-ALBANY, OH7 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair73°F69°F88%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUNI

Wind History from UNI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4SW3S4S6S5S4S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW10
G15
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1 day agoCalmCalmSW4W7SW5CalmW7SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW5W7SW4CalmW6S3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.