Thursday, August6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shipman, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday August 6, 2020 7:28 PM CDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:08PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shipman, IL
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location: 39.18, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 062328 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

The surface high responsible in part for the pleasant weather over the past several days is continuing to shift eastward and is now situated over the Great Lakes region. Likewise aloft, the mid-level trough to our east will continue on its eastward trajectory will continue to shift eastward tonight and Friday, making way for the mid-level ridge that will dominate our sensible weather over the period. Southwesterly low-level return flow has started to pump warm, moist air back into the southern central Plains. This southwesterly flow will continue through the end of the period, bringing increased moisture and instability into the mid-Mississippi River Valley and fueling chances for convection.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across western Missouri along the nose of the south-southwesterly LLJ as it ramps up tonight. Most of the convection is expected to stay to the west of our CWA, but I cannot rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm making it into our far west. Convection is expected to stay out of our CWA through the day Friday without any substantial forcing to keep thunderstorms going. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across Missouri Friday night, especially central and northeast Missouri, as the LLJ veers into the CWA, promotes moisture convergence, and taps into 500-1000 J/kg of modest MUCAPE.

WWA by the southwesterly low-level flow will continue to moderate temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s and slightly warmer than today, though still a couple degrees be normal for early August.

MRM

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

The mid-level ridge currently over the High Plains will continue to broaden and build into the southern half of the CONUS over the course of the weekend, leaving the mid-Mississippi River Valley in the southern edge of the westerlies. In the low-levels southwesterly flow will continue advect warm, moist air into the region. The NAEFS and ECMWF indicate the low-level specific humidity will be above the 90th climatological percentile across the region well into next week. Numerous weak disturbances moving through the mid-level flow will be able to tap into the growing instability and moisture, and produce several chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region through the end of the period.

Ongoing convection should continue Saturday morning as mid-level vorticity maxima shift through the area. A small dry period is possible Saturday afternoon as the mid-level disturbance shifts eastward out of the area and before the southwesterly LLJ sets up overnight. Nocturnal convection is possible once the LLJ sets up Sunday night.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will come Monday when a cold front approaches the region, driven by the mid-level trough axis as it swings through the upper Mississippi River Valley. Operational guidance currently depicts the front stalling out somewhere near central Missouri. Given how far the low center is from the CWA and the proximity of the mid level ridge, there is low confidence that the front will make it all the way through the CWA. Climatologically speaking, it's more likely the front will stall somewhere in the area, acting as a focus for thunderstorm development before possibly lifting northward as a warm front sometime midweek.

The cool September-like weather we experienced over the last week won't be returning to the area anytime soon. Guidance points to the mid-level ridge and southwesterly low-level flow sticking around through the end of the period, keeping temperatures near to above normal through next week. This return to a more August-like pattern is echoed in the CIPS Analogs from St. Louis University which depict the mid-Mississippi River Valley in anomalously warm temperatures through the end of the period.

MRM

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Scattered mid to high clouds continue to push southeast and erode over central Missouri, while diurnally driven clouds around 5k feet fade out through sunset. VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least late tonight. Friday should be dry and quiet again for most locations. The caveat will be over central Missouri, where a stray shower/thunderstorm could develop early Friday morning. However, chances are rather low and confidence in any impact to KCOU is not high. Therefore, stayed the course without VCTS mention.

Maples

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL17 mi34 minE 510.00 miFair74°F56°F55%1019 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL19 mi39 minENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F62°F65%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K3LF

Wind History from 3LF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3CalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E6SE4E7CalmSE7SE3E5E6E3
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6CalmNE3CalmE3E3
2 days agoN5N5N4N7N5N5N5NW4NW5NW4N4N7N5N7N7N5N6NE7N9N9N9
G14
N10N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.