Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:38AM||Sunset 5:49PM||Wednesday February 24, 2021 11:24 AM CST (17:24 UTC)||Moonrise 2:53PM||Moonset 5:14AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shipman, ILHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 241106 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 506 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
UPDATE. Issued at 456 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
Light showers are beginning to spring up east of St. Louis this morning along the cold front. While some adjustments to PoPs were made this morning regarding the timing of any showers, no substantial changes were made. Temperatures are falling at a glacial pace, even behind the front, which will set us up for another warm day. Though not quite as warm as yesterday, guidance is handling surface temperatures poorly. Highs today were raised in St. Louis and areas south/east as a result.
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
While it will be hard to top yesterday's picture-perfect weather, quiet conditions are expected through the short-term period. Broad upper-level ridging responsible for the above-normal temperatures yesterday slid east overnight in the wake of a shortwave trough and weak surface cold front. Weak, disorganized moisture convergence along the front, currently stretching from southwest MO through west-central IL, inhibited precipitation through the early morning. CAMs are backing off any precipitation developing until the front is about to exit the CWA, but given the low potential for showers to develop, PoPs remain in place through sunrise. Air behind the cold front is not impressively- cold by any stretch of the imagination, which will set us up for another relatively warm day today.
Surface high pressure will move east over the region today, and the northwesterly flow will act to cool temperatures slightly. That being said, the strongest CAA will be tied to the better forcing northeast of the Mid- Mississippi Valley. That will allow sunshine to overcome the CAA and warm portions of the area into the still-abnormal mid/upper 50s by this afternoon. Low 60s are appearing more likely in the far southern CWA, where the cold front did not help to lower overnight temperatures. Lower clouds associated with weak low- level forcing/WAA should filter south out of the northern Plains this afternoon, affecting northeast MO and west- central IL during peak heating hours. Those clouds would put an end to afternoon heating in that area. Factoring in that the ground in northeast MO/west- central IL is still quite cold from the newly- melted snowpack, temperatures there will only reach the upper-40s. By the time those clouds move further south, the sun will be setting and peak heating would have been achieved.
Tonight and tomorrow will stay dry and uneventful in the midst of high surface pressure and zonal upper-level flow. Colder air should filter further south tonight across the CWA, aided by the weak forcing spurring the clouds. WAA-induced high clouds will develop through the morning tomorrow, which will contribute to cooler temperatures by dampening diurnal heating effects. As a result, highs should peak around normal (mid/upper 40s) areawide tomorrow.
LONG TERM. (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
Tomorrow night, a trough-ridge pattern sets up across the CONUS, putting our region in southwesterly mid-level flow through the weekend. Two impacts from the pattern change will be warmer temperatures and the chance for precipitation over the weekend.
Latest deterministic guidance is signaling at an increased potential for some light precipitation late Friday night into early Saturday morning across a majority of the CWA. While there will be dry air in place that will initially inhibit precipitation, a stronger surge of unobstructed Gulf moisture is expected to move north and interact with low/mid-level forcing early Saturday morning. Two main areas of forcing in the mid-levels move through the region Saturday morning, one across northern MO and the other across northern AR. The question remains whether the forcing will interact with sufficient moisture to result in precipitation. The usually-conservative National Blend of Models is pessimistic regarding precipitation chances through this period, but deterministic and ensemble solutions are at least hinting at light precipitation starting as early as Friday afternoon. Slight chance/chance PoPs were added for Friday night through Saturday morning to account for this potential. Precipitation type should be of little concern: model soundings suggest a warm-enough low-level thermal profile for rain if precipitation does fall.
Concerning rain chances through the rest of the weekend, ensemble and deterministic guidance backed off from yesterday's solutions and favor suppressing precipitation south of our CWA. Sufficient forcing appears to be far-removed from the bi-state region to our south. WPC Cluster Analysis does hint at the potential for light precipitation extending as far north as St. Louis, and CIPS Analog Guidance from Saint Louis University also highlights the potential for light rain this weekend. If forcing migrates further north amidst the southwesterly mid-level flow, guidance disagrees to how much available moisture that forcing will find. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF favor a drier boundary layer, while the CMC is markedly saturated across most of the eastern CONUS. The NBM output for this time period was left alone given the uncertainty outlined. After Sunday, guidance diverges considerably regarding the upper-level pattern, but the potential still exists for precipitation through the middle of next week. The NBM PoPs were left alone through the rest of the period due to this uncertainty.
Temperatures will be on the rise through the weekend amidst relatively robust WAA. Saturday looks to be the warmest day: deterministic guidance is in good agreement regarding abnormally- warm boundary layer temperatures. The NBM distribution of high temperatures on Saturday is relatively slim, suggesting good agreement among its constituent members. Surface winds will be out of the southwest to start the day Saturday, which is usually a preferred wind direction for efficient warm advection. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 50s/low 60s, but with guidance's poor handling of this preferred wind direction for warming temperatures, these may prove to be a bit too low. Sunday will also see above-average temperatures, but a more southerly wind direction and more cloud cover will keep temperatures lower than Saturday. As is the case with precipitation, uncertainty beyond Sunday is considerable (NBM interquartile range for high temperatures is 15-20F). How the upper-level pattern develops will understandably have an impact on temperatures. Some guidance develops broad ridging across the area early next week (warmer), while others have a more amplified shortwave move through (cooler/wetter).
AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 456 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
A cold front currently (as of this issuance) passing through the St. Louis metropolitan area will be the dominant weather feature today. Light showers began to develop along the front, but after the front had cleared the terminals. VFR conditions will be in place for the first part of the day today, however MVFR stratus appears more likely this afternoon and tonight. KUIN would be impacted first around 23Z, then the St. Louis metropolitan terminals by 05Z. While lower clouds are also expected at KCOU, confidence in MVFR CIGs is not high enough for mention in the TAFs. The stratus should begin to lift to VFR during the overnight hours tonight with drier air moving in, first at KUIN by 05Z and in the St. Louis area by 08Z. Otherwise, winds will be predominantly northwesterly and gusty today, turning to the north and weakening tomorrow.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.
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|Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL||17 mi||29 min||NW 10||10.00 mi||Fair||51°F||39°F||62%||1013.9 hPa|
|St. Louis Regional Airport, IL||19 mi||34 min||NW 12||10.00 mi||Fair||55°F||43°F||63%||1014.2 hPa|
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Wind History from 3LF (wind in knots)
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