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FXUS63 KLSX 282132 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 332 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- A big rebound in temperatures is expected on Wednesday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal

- Widespread beneficial rainfall is still on track to impact the area Thursday into early Friday. The potential for rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches remain along and south of I-70, with localized higher amounts possible



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface ridge overhead will begin to slide off to the east southeast tonight. In the meantime, with northwest flow aloft, a weak trough will sink southeast into the region. The latest deterministic models keep the best lift and moisture well north of our area, over the Great Lakes region. Thus only expect scattered stratocu as well as winds veering to the west as the trough moves through our area early Wednesday morning.

Trough will eventually stall and washout by midday on Wednesday, thus winds will back to the southwest once again. So warmup on Wednesday is still on track as a low level jet ramps up from the west to southwest. Thus highs will be a bit above normal and 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today.

By Wednesday night, the first in a series of shortwaves will lift east northeast towards the region from the deep trough over the western CONUS. As the surface ridge continues to move east, the low level flow will back to the southwest to south, ushering in plenty of moisture from the western Gulf. Also, with modest WAA due to strong south to southwest surface flow, temperatures will initially dip down just after sunset, then either remain steady or slowly rise through the overnight hours.

Byrd

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Even though there remains some differences in the location, speed and strength of the system as it moves into the region, they are fairly minor. Thus still expect a widespread rain Thursday through Friday morning.

With increasing lift and low level moisture Thursday morning, will see rain develop and spread northward through the day. By Thursday evening, the associated surface low will continue to deepen and move into southwestern MO. As the low slides northeast along the I-44 corridor, heavy rainfall is expected especially over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some of the latest ensembles as well as latest NBM runs, have trended lower on storm total rainfall amounts, but still indicate widespread 1" rainfall (50-85% probability), especially along and south of I-70.

In the meantime, still some concern for the potential for light snow across far northern portions of the forecast area (between Kirksville and Quincy) as colder air filters in by early Friday morning. The latest NBM has less than 10% of it's members with at least a tenth of an inch of snow, so just expect a few flakes mixed in at this time.

Beyond Friday, the latest deterministic and ensembles have differences on how they handle the system as additional shortwaves move through. Some are a bit slower with each shortwave, while others have the original front stall out near the Missouri/Arkansas border. So could expect more rounds of rain Saturday night through Monday, for now stuck with the latest NBM solution with low end chance POPs through the period.

Otherwise, after a brief cool down on Friday, temperatures warm up to a bit above normal for the weekend.

Byrd

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Otherwise, winds will back to the south and pickup this afternoon. By later tonight, a low level jet will develop from the west around 35-40 kts, between 04z and 06z Wednesday, so will see LLWS develop. Kept mention in TAFs until 08z-11z Wednesday, then a weak front will move through with winds veering to the southwest to west.

Byrd

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Saint Louis 30 58 40 52 / 0 0 5 80 Quincy 25 48 33 50 / 0 0 0 50 Columbia 28 55 37 50 / 0 0 5 80 Jefferson City 28 58 38 52 / 0 0 5 80 Salem 23 53 36 50 / 0 0 0 80 Farmington 24 58 38 49 / 0 0 5 90

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.

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