Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kane, IL

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A cold front is gradually making its way into the forecast area from the northwest early this morning. Convection along it has been fairly limited, but has increased in recent hours across Kansas and western Missouri where low level moist convergence is greater.
Further east in our area, locally lower dewpoints have led to a reduction in instability so much of the convection to the west has rapidly weakened as it moves northeast. Expect this trend to continue over the coming few hours as the cold front continues to slide southeast. Although we cannot rule out a strong to severe storm especially if low level moisture can increase instability, this is looking increasingly less likely. Convection in our forecast area is likely to be more limited in strength and coverage, being primarily driven by initiation upstream across Kansas and Oklahoma and advected northeast in the vicinity of the advancing cold front.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the surface front will be positioned across southeast MO and southern IL by around noon today with some convection still ongoing from earlier activity advected into the area. The potential for severe storms this afternoon will primarily be to the south of this front where diurnal instability will be maximizing. Shear will be a bit weaker, but still sufficient for organized storm clusters posing primarily a threat for damaging winds. This threat will be mostly to the south of our forecast area. The threat for flash flooding has decreased primarily due to the more scattered nature of convection making it less likely that multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will track across the same areas.

The front continues south to about the Memphis area before stalling tonight. Additional showers and storms develop in an area of moist advection across Oklahoma overnight driven by the approach of a southern stream trough. Some remnants of this activity may track into our area on Wednesday morning. As the upper trough moves east out into the Plains on Wednesday, the surface front gets shoved back northward as a warm front, putting much of our area into the renewed warm sector before the trough arrives Wednesday night. Although modest shear exists to aid in organizing convection into multicell clusters or an MCS, the timing of the trough's arrival during the overnight hours will limit the available instability. So once again we cannot rule out a strong to severe storm, with damaging winds the primary threat, low level stability in the nocturnal environment may prevent this front occurring.

Additional showers and storms continue on Thursday as the trough finally exits to the east. Although we do get into the warm sector on Wednesday, another cold front pushes through with the trough on Thursday, eventually ending this period of wet weather.

Kimble

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Cooler and drier air moves in behind Thursday's front, but a secondary trough dropping in from the northern stream may trigger more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on Friday. With little moisture to work with (dewpoints falling into the 40s), this instability will be very limited and driven by cold advection aloft rather than moist advection in the low levels. As a result, we do not expect severe thunderstorms with this round or even that much rainfall. It will, however, renew a push of cooler and drier air into the region that sets the stage for a beautiful weekend.

Although cool air moves in with surface high pressure Friday into Saturday, ridging will be building across the Rockies and moving out into the Plains late in the week. This will allow a warm up to begin especially once that surface high moves east and allows a low level southerly flow to begin again. Gulf moisture remains cut off by that rather expansive surface high, so we expect dry weather to last into the first part of next week.

Kimble

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The period will be hindered by active weather with showers and embedded thunderstorms progressing through the region this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday morning. Unfortunately, the consecutive train of disturbances and dependence each round will have on behavior and evolution of preceding rounds result in a high degree of uncertainty with regard to direct impacts stemming from thunderstorms. This scenario lends highest confidence in the near term (first 6 hours) with opportunity for refinement in later amendments and updates. The approach was to time out morning potential and use SHRA in the prevailing groups later in the TAF package to convey the best potential for precipitation.

Aside from thunderstorms, higher confidence exists with ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR as the warm front pushes north Wednesday morning. This next round lacks the instability to produce stronger thunderstorms, but will likely bring numerous showers and even widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday morning.
This eventually lift north of the TAF sites from late morning through early afternoon with isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, just beyond the end of the 24 hour period.

Maples

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.