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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kane, IL

June 25, 2024 11:26 AM CDT (16:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM
Moonrise 10:43 PM   Moonset 8:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kane, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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279 FXUS63 KLSX 251151 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- The heat continues for one more day. Heat index values of 105+ are likely across parts of central, east central, and southeast Missouri as well as southwest and south central Illinois. The Heat Advisory remains in effect with no changes needed.

- Thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon/evening along a slow moving cold front over Iowa, and move into our area during the late evening or overnight. Some storms could produce damaging winds of 60 mph or greater. A few could also produce some 1 inch hail. The highest threat of severe storms will be across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois, with a diminishing threat as the storms move farther south.

- The cold front passes more slowly than expected in previous forecasts.
While We`ll see relief from the heat on Wednesday, it will be more from clouds, and showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon south of I-70 where a few strong and possibly severe storms may develop.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The Heat Advisory should be in good shape with the latest temperature guidance giving us upper 90s and even some 100-101 highs in the St. Louis Metro Area. The one fly in the ointment is the potential for mixing this afternoon. The RAP and to a lesser extent the GFS forecast soundings show deep mixing (over 700 mb on the RAP!) which drops surface dew point temperatures into the 60s across parts of southeast and east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. In this scenario the heat index would be closer to the air temperature. Though we technically wouldn`t make it to advisory criteria, the air temperature would likely be hotter than forecast, and the potential health effects would be the same, so I`ve made no changes to the advisory at this time.

The heat and humidity will produce strong instability over northern Missouri into Iowa this afternoon ahead of the cold front which will ultimately bring us relief from the heat. The GFS and RAP show 4500 to 5000+ J/Kg MLCAPE late this afternoon across Iowa. They both develop convection and push it south slowly ahead of the front. Most CAMs have not been handling the ongoing convection across the Upper Midwest well, but the ARW WRF does seem to have a clue, which is making me lean on its solution. It develops several clusters of convection along the front which grow upscale into a QLCS that races south-southeast through the forecast area. Timing may not be perfect, but the evolution makes sense. The RAP and GFS never show more than about 2000 J/Kg MUCAPE Tuesday night as the line moves through, and deep layer shear is only about 15-25kts. That being said, we could see some damaging wind, particularly across northern portions of the area as the QLCS moves out of Iowa. Not sure how far south the wind threat will continue, but the storms should weaken as they move south away from the greatest instability.

The latest guidance continues to show a slower solution for the FROPA which will bring us relief from our hot spell. This looks like it`s primarily due to a slower and sharper upstream short wave moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest late tonight into early Wednesday morning. The stronger wave forces low level cyclogenesis over the eastern Plains to along the Missouri/Iowa border. The surface-850 low closes off and takes its time meandering southeast through Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. While the front doesn`t make it all the way through the area until some time during the late afternoon/early evening, clouds and convection should keep temperatures in the 80s. Speaking of convection, both the RAP and to a lesser extent the GFS show instability increasing again in the afternoon across southern Missouri and Illinois ahead of the front. The RAP is showing 3000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE with deep-layer shear of 30+ kts, so there will be another threat for severe storms Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front.

Carney

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Not much has changed for the remainder of the forecast. After a cooler Thursday under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, southerly flow returns on Friday and we warm back into the 90 on Friday. Another cold front develops over northern Plains as a short wave aloft moves across the US/Canada border late Friday and the cold front associated with this system dives through the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday. Temperatures ahead of the front on Saturday are forecast to reach into the 90s again, although ensemble guidance is showing a pretty wide spread across the area due to differences with the speed of the front. The 25th to 75th percentile high temperature spread on the LREF is 9 degrees at Lambert on Saturday, and the NBM forecast is warmer than the 75th percentile, so the current forecast may be a little hot. I did not adjust it this morning due to the uncertainty in the speed of the front at this time. One way or another, Sunday should be much cooler with another strong high pressure system moving into the Midwest and continuing to the east over the Great Lakes on Monday.

Carney

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at least through the afternoon into the early evening. An isolated or few widely scattered thunderstorms are possible almost any time today, most likely up across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
More widespread thunderstorms are expected tonight, and some will be capable of producing 50kt wind gusts. The most likely location for the strongest storms will be across northern Missouri into central Illinois...and most likely during the mid-late evening.
The storms are expected to drop south overnight, weakening as they go. With that said, guidance does not have a good handle on current convective trends across the Midwest this morning. While I`m confident there will be storms in our forecast area tonight, I don`t feel very confident in the timing of these storms.

Carney

CLIMATE
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot temperatures forecast, here are some of the daily high temperature records:

MON JUN 24 TUE JUN 25 ST LOUIS 102 in 1988 102 in 1954 COLUMBIA 103 in 1988 102 in 1988 QUINCY 99 in 1988 102 in 1931



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Callaway MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Warren MO-Washington MO.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Cole MO- Moniteau MO.

IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSET ST CHARLES COUNTY SMARTT,MO 17 sm32 minW 13G1910 smClear97°F72°F44%29.85
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St. Louis, MO,




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