Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Edgemere, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:51PM Monday November 18, 2019 1:47 AM EST (06:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 12:22PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1236 Am Est Mon Nov 18 2019
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 1235 Am Est Mon Nov 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure off the southeast coast tracks slowly northeastward, remaining east of the carolina coastline. This low will track northward across the western atlantic into early next week as high pressure builds to our south toward the middle of the workweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgemere, MD
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location: 39.19, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 180206
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
906 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Synopsis
Coastal low pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast
tonight into Monday. An upper-level disturbance will pass
through Tuesday and pacific high pressure will then build into
the region from the west for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front will pass through late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Coastal low pressure will continue to move northeast off the
east coast of the CONUS tonight while high pressure new england
wedges into the mid-atlantic. A low-level easterly flow will
continue to bring clouds to the area tonight, and there may even
be some drizzle light rain. The best chance for drizzle light
rain will be near the bay overnight where moisture is deepest
and along the blue ridge mountains. Temperatures along the blue
ridge mountains are near freezing and are likely to remain near
or just below freezing overnight. Therefore, freezing drizzle is
expected. A winter weather advisory has been issued for the blue
ridge mountains for freezing drizzle. Elsewhere, freezing
drizzle is possible across the ridges in the allegheny and
potomac highlands. However, moisture is not quite as deep across
these areas so confidence in drizzle is not as high. Therefore,
a winter weather advisory has not been issued for these areas at
this time. This will have to be monitored overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
The coastal low which has been parked off the southeast coast
for a few days will continue to shift northward up the east
coast tomorrow in response to a shortwave approaching from the
ohio valley. This shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it
passes overhead late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Over the past
few days, guidance has been hesitant to produce precipitation
in association with this feature. However, 12z guidance has
started to produce light rain over the area tomorrow afternoon
and evening. The 12z euro and eps are most aggressive, producing
a steady rain over much of the area. Pops were upped across the
area with the afternoon update to account for this, and may
need to be upped further if the trend continues. Synoptically
speaking, it makes sense given the shortwave taking on a
negative tilt, with the upper low closing off.

Most of the precipitation should come to an end by midnight, but
a few showers may linger through the night. A few upslope rain
and snow showers will be possible along the allegheny front, but
no accumulation is expected. Another lobe of vorticity at mid
levels will build overhead into the base of the longwave trough
on Tuesday. No precipitation is expected in association with
this shortwave, but it will act to keep skies mostly cloudy.

Skies will start to clear out as the shortwave progresses to the
east Tuesday night. The exception will be along the allegheny
front, where a upslope rain and snow showers will be possible
in northwesterly flow.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
The upper trough will swing offshore on Wednesday, with an upper
ridge building in behind it. Surface high pressure will build to the
southeast during this time as well. Overall, this will result in dry
conditions, with temperatures in the mid 50s. Could see some
lingering upslope activity into Wednesday along west of the
allegheny front though.

Thursday and Friday, high pressure will slide east and offshore.

Meanwhile an area of surface low pressure forms over the central
u.S. And tracks into the great lakes region, connected to a weak
piece of shortwave energy ejecting out of the southwest. The cold
front associated with this system will push through on Friday,
bringing a chance for some showers along with it. Temperatures
gradually warm each day, as southerly flow gradually returns to the
region. Highs Thursday a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, then on
Friday into the low 60s.

Beyond Friday, things become much more uncertain. A cutoff upper low
over the southwest will finally try to eject eastward next weekend.

Surface cyclogenesis across the central u.S. Is expected when it
does so. The uncertainty lies in how quickly the upper low ejects to
the east, and where the surface low moves once it does form. With a
few upper level disturbances in the northern jet as well, that makes
for a lot of moving pieces to forecast 7+ days out. So, something to
monitor at this point in time.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
MVFR CIGS are most likely over the terminals tonight through
much of Monday. A period of ifr conditions cannot be ruled out,
especially over the eastern terminals. Confidence was not high
enough to have in the forecast at this time but it will be
close.

An upper-level disturbance may bring more low clouds later
Monday afternoon and evening, especially if rain were to move
in.VFR conditions will return for Tuesday.

Winds out of the wnw on Wednesday at 5-10 knots, with gusts up to 20
knots possible, as an upper level low pushes off towards the east.

Vfr conditions are expected though, as dry weather is expected.

Winds turn more southwesterly into Thursday, again at 5-10
knots, but likely won't be as gusty, with high pressure in
control.

Marine
A northerly will gradually turn northwest overnight through
Monday. An SCA remains in effect for much of the bay and lower
tidal potomac river tonight, and for the middle portion of the
bay and lower tidal potomac river Monday. The winds should
gradually diminish to below SCA criteria for Monday night and
Tuesday as the gradient subsides behind the departing coastal
low.

A brief period of small craft advisory level winds is possible
on Wednesday afternoon, but other than that, should remain below
sca criteria through Thursday.

Winds will begin to pickup overnight Thursday though, as a cold
front approaches from the west. So, small craft advisory may be
needed during that time.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies have leveled off this evening. Will continue with the
coastal flood advisories for the high tide cycle tonight in
washington dc and for Monday morning in st marys county.

Elsewhere, with the northerly flow continuing and anomalies
leveling off, confidence is too low to extend headlines at this
time.

However, anomalies remain around 2.5 near norfolk over the mouth
of the bay. As the flow subsides Monday these anomalies are
expected to creep back north. Have issued a coastal flood watch
for potential of moderate flooding for straits point and
annapolis. Minor flooding is expected elsewhere, and moderate
flooding is possible. Confidence is too low at this time for any
additional watches, but that will have to be monitored. Tide
levels should be dropping Tuesday as the low pulls away.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am est Monday for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood watch from Monday evening through late Monday
night for mdz014.

Coastal flood watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for mdz017.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 am est Monday for mdz017.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Monday for vaz507-508.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz531-539.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530-538.

Small craft advisory until noon est Monday for anz532-533-
540>542.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Monday for anz534-537-543.

Synopsis... Rcm kjp
near term... Bjl kjp
short term... Kjp
long term... Cjl
aviation... Bjl cjl kjp
marine... Bjl cjl kjp
tides coastal flooding... Ads bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi47 min NNE 8.9 G 12 40°F 1014.8 hPa (-2.1)
FSNM2 4 mi53 min N 8.9 G 11 40°F 1014.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 8 mi47 min NE 8 G 9.9
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi53 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 42°F 48°F1015.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi47 min 41°F 1014.1 hPa (-1.9)
CPVM2 14 mi47 min 43°F
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi23 min NE 12 G 14 42°F 48°F1014.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 20 mi47 min N 17 G 19 42°F 50°F1015 hPa (-1.7)37°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 31 mi137 min N 2.9 41°F 1015 hPa37°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 37 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 7 41°F 46°F1014.9 hPa (-2.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi47 min NE 6 G 11
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi35 min NE 16 G 19 43°F 1014.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi47 min N 11 G 17

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD10 mi53 minno data mi41°F33°F73%1015 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD11 mi72 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F33°F76%1015.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi53 minNNE 67.00 miLight Drizzle41°F35°F79%1014.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD15 mi53 minN 810.00 miOvercast42°F36°F79%1014.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi53 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast37°F33°F87%1015.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi52 minNE 810.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBWI

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N8W654NW5W4W7W4CalmW33NW3N4N7N10
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Tide / Current Tables for North Point, Maryland
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North Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:46 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:10 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.60.40.30.30.40.50.70.80.80.70.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.81.11.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:30 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     0.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:20 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:21 PM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:33 PM EST     0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.40.60.80.80.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.