Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Edgemere, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Web cameras and microwave imagery from several NOAA polar passes continue to indicate snow is still falling across western Garrett and western Grant Counties. The trend should be for the snow rates to diminish as subsidence inversion begins to strengthen and low-level curvature becomes more anticyclonic as high pressure starts building closer to the area.

The main story tonight and Monday will be the bitter cold wind chills with values approaching zero at the lower elevations and negative teens across the higher elevations. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect, mainly for the higher elevations of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains into Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

For the past couple of days, models have been trying to develop an area of very light snow across northern MD Monday afternoon as shortwave energy drops southeastward from Lk Huron. Close examinations of model soundings show very dry air/large dewpoint depressions below 700 mb across northern MD and southern PA.
Very doubtful that anything would be able to reach the ground.
Very cold Monday night as high pressure settles in and winds become light. Slow warming trend begins Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore and winds turn more southerly with time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Temperatures continue to warm midweek as a result of high pressure weakening and pushing further off the East Coast. Zonal flow will prevail aloft with warm air advection ensuing out of the southwest at the surface. This will help temperatures rebound back to normal levels if not above normal on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures Wednesday will push into the mid to upper 40s with portions of the Shenandoah Valley and central VA Piedmont reaching into the mid 50s. Mountain locations will thaw out as well with highs in the upper 30s. Lows Wednesday night will fall back into the upper 20s and low 30s.

Dry conditions will likely prevail through Thursday afternoon with increasing clouds as a potent trough and surface low pressure system work into the Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will send a series of weak warm frontal boundaries through the region Thursday afternoon and evening with a potent cold front set to cross late Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures Thursday will warm into the low to mid 50s with upper 40s in the mountains.

With the series of fronts passing through expect increased cloud cover throughout the day and perhaps a spotty shower during the afternoon. Any substantial rain and/or convection looks to hold off until Thursday night into early Friday morning. Severe weather does not appear to be concern at this time, but given the strong wind fields aloft and strong warm air advection at the surface, convective elements cannot be ruled out. As it stands now, the highest winds look to be confined to the mountains with lower gusts over the lower elevations. Rain will change to snow over the mountains Friday morning with upslope snow showers lingering into Friday night. This is concurrent with 12z ensemble/deterministic guidance which continues to show overlap on the late Thursday evening into early Friday morning timeframe for hazardous weather concerns.

High pressure will build in from the west Friday into Saturday.
While cooler, a zonal flow pattern aloft will remain resulting in near to slightly above normal temperatures. The forecast has a small chance of rain/snow in the Alleghenies Saturday with some potential for embedded weak shortwaves in the zonal flow to round out the weekend.



AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Brisk NW winds gusting up to 30 kt are expected through this evening before diminishing to 25 kt late and below 15 kt Monday.
Bkn cigs 050 will scatter out tonight. Light winds Monday night and Tuesday with winds shifting to SW and then S.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday afternoon as high pressure shifts offshore. Gusty southerly winds develop Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front Thursday night into Friday. Sub-VFR conditions will return with the front Thursday night into Friday as a line of showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm push through. VFR conditions return for the weekend ahead.

MARINE

Gale conditions will continue through tonight in brisk NW winds before winds begin to diminish Monday. SCA conditions will continue through the day Monday before diminishing further Monday night.
SCA conditions are possible again Tue night.

Any residual southerly channeling should come to an end Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Sub-SCA level winds return Wednesday afternoon and evening with high pressure nearby. SCAs return late Wednesday night through Thursday night as south/southeasterly flow increases. This is in association with a potent low pressure system and associated cold front pushing in from the Ohio River Valley. The cold front will cross Thursday night bringing a brief period of gale conditions. Additional SCAs will be needed Friday with high pressure returning this weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Low Water Advisories have been issued for the waters south of Pooles Island to North Beach where water levels at 1 ft below MLLW are expected. Water levels will recover slightly on Monday as NW winds diminish.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for MDZ008.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MDZ501.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ509-510.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ509.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ504-507-508.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ503.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ025-026.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for WVZ503-506.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ501-505.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-531-535- 536-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ531-532- 538>540.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.