Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM   Moonset 2:01 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of today - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

ANZ500 1034 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
marine conditions will gradually deteriorate later today and into the weekend as low pressure passes south of the waters. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KPHI 171539 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1139 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Middle Atlantic coast today before drifting out to sea. Another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast over the weekend. High pressure appears to finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front arrives toward the latter part of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Onshore flow continues across the area while weak ridging takes place aloft. There is less in the way of precipitation across the area today (compared to yesterday) and clouds are becoming thin in places, especially north/east. We continue to expect that more breaks and thin spots will develop this afternoon.

Temperatures will remain near normal with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s near the shore to low 70s for the western areas.

Clouds start building in again tonight as the next mid level trough begins to approach from the southwest. Rain showers associated with this system may start to encroach on our region before sunrise, especially for portions of Delmarva and areas of SE PA. Rain amounts should be light though.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Approaching upper trough and surface low will spread a risk of showers into the region from the west on Saturday, along with plenty of clouds, but instability will be weak to non-existent with lingering marine influence and weak upper forcing, so don't expect any thunder of significance, and showers will generally be dwindling as they work eastward across the CWA as the upper trough washes out and the bulk of the energy stays south. Highs mostly in the 60s.

Surface high pressure nudges southward back into the area on Saturday night and Sunday, with most energy now completely confined to the south of the area, so this should help completely end rain chances. However, lingering low-level moisture may keep some patchy fog/drizzle/low clouds around, especially at night into early Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, do expect at least some breaks of sun, if not a partly to mostly sunny afternoon. After lows mostly in the 50s, highs rebound into the lower 70s, but cooler near the water with lingering onshore flow.

High pressure builds a bit stronger southwestward Sunday night, potentially clearing out some more low clouds, but opening a better window for patchy fog development. Otherwise, quiet with lows again mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Several days of mostly dry and mostly sunny weather are looking increasingly likely with near to slightly above normal temps as we start the next work week as high pressure tries to hold firm for several days. This should help keep any precip away, with temps rising well into the 70s to near 80 during the daylight hours. Lows will remain in the 50s Monday and Tuesday nights thanks to mostly clear skies and light winds under the high.
Can't rule out patchy fog but won't include in forecast yet.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, clouds and southwesterly flow will increase ahead of the next cold front. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday but still temps near 80 after a night where temps may not fall below 60 for many.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Mostly MVFR with a slow trend to VFR especially N/E.
Breaks at times in the OVC. Timing of changes to VFR tricky with less mixing and high clouds already thickening across the area.
Wind speeds 5 to 15 kt through the day. The direction will be starting from the NNE, but should be out of the SE by late today for most TAF sites; KACY could remain NE through the TAF period. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exact timing of improvement.

Tonight...Starting VFR, but after 06Z, could see ceilings and visibilities reduced to MVFR in rain showers. TAF sites most likely to see the reductions before sunrise are KILG and KRDG.
Wind speeds should drop to 5 kt or less overnight. As for wind direction, winds may go light and variable for a period, but should generally favor the easterly direction. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...
Saturday and Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with chance SHRA and patchy BR.

Sunday...MVFR possible early with patchy BR, then mainly VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with MVFR possible due to patchy BR.

Monday...MVFR possible early due to patchy BR, improving to VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect elevated seas to gradually diminish through the day. Once they do, expect winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight.

On the Delaware Bay, winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through tonight.

Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday: Sub-SCA with winds less than 15 kts and wave heights less than 5 feet. Chance of showers Saturday into early Sunday, otherwise no significant weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 026.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.

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Chestertown
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Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:45 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chestertown, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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