Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:35PM Friday July 10, 2020 2:37 AM EDT (06:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:11PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 138 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt this morning through this afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Widespread showers and scattered tstms.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Tropical storm fay will lift north from just off the north carolina outer banks tonight, passing north of ocean city Friday, and continuing to move north toward long island Friday night. A cold front is poised to encroach on the waters late Saturday into Sunday, lingering nearby into early next week. Sporadic gale force wind gusts may be possible over portions of the waters this morning. Please consult the latest nhc advisory for information on tropical storm fay.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 100003 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 803 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will continue to work its way northward this evening, and will be located near the NJ coast on Friday. By Saturday, the storm will push off to our north, working its way across New England. Behind this system, another area of low pressure is forecast to drag a cold front through the region Saturday into Saturday night. An additional disturbance is forecast to move through the region late Monday into Tuesday before high pressure builds across the eastern U.S., ushering in warmer air. A cold front may affect the region by late Thursday next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/.

Biggest update to the late afternoon package was to issue tropical headlines for the NJ coast and offshore waters as the coastal low off the NC coast has been upgraded to a tropical storm (named Fay). This system will progress northward through the overnight period, and will likely be centered off the Virginia coast by daybreak Friday.

The cirrus shield associated with Fay will continue to spread northward this evening, with the lower clouds and rain showers likely encroaching upon southern Delmarva around or just after midnight, and then spreading northward into NJ near daybreak.

An easterly wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 20 MPH near the coast overnight. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s with an increasingly muggy airmass in place.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/.

The low is forecast to work its way up the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey on Friday, before moving into New England on Friday night.

Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Friday. The rain will be heavy at times. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches should be common in our region with locally higher amounts possible based on the nature of the system.

The back edge of the heavy rain is anticipated to lift gradually northward across our region during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance of showers will likely decrease on Friday night.

The wind is expected to favor the northeast on Friday at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH near the coast, and around 10 MPH inland. The wind should become light and variable on Friday night.

Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows on Friday night should favor the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Thankfully, nothing dire in the extended forecast as our coastal storm exits Saturday night to the northeast as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Exact timing on this front remains quite questionable given ambiguities with the coastal storm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday as the mid-level trough further amplifies and shifts ever so slightly eastward over the Northeast. Some timing differences remain over how fast these exit the region, so kept a general mention of PoPs in the forecast for now. The afternoon and evening look drier at this point. Highs Saturday and Sunday remain seasonably warm in the upper 80s to near 90.

A shortwave perturbation will pivot toward our region out of the Great Lakes as the synoptic trough nudges eastward into the day Monday. Ripple effects regarding timing issues appear to be carrying over with this system with guidance taking it through Sunday night to sometime on Monday. The exact evolution of this weak surface low and cold front remain far from certain. Highs Monday once again at or around 90.

High pressure looks to expand eastward as we head into the middle portion of next week with increasing heat and humidity as warmer air that has been building across the south-central U.S. shifts eastward. May approach Heat Advisory criteria by Thursday with highs in the mid 90s across the urban corridor. Dew points in the low to mid 70s may make it feel close to, if not above 100F. Thankfully, this appears to be short-lived as an area of low pressure moving out of the Mid-West and into Ontario pulls a cold front southeastward into the region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to accompany this front, though exact details have yet to be ironed out.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR this evening, with conditions lowering to MVFR late tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to overspread the region from the south after 06Z. Easterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 knots inland and 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 knots near the coast. Medium to high confidence.

Friday . MVFR/IFR conditions with heavy rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. East to northeast wind around 10 knots inland, and 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots near the coast. Medium to high confidence.

Friday night . Mainly MVFR conditions with a chance of showers. Variable wind 10 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Generally VFR with afternoon showers and thunderstorms bringing possible MVFR restrictions. Southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Saturday Night . Possible MVFR restrictions with lingering showers and thunderstorms in the evening will give way to VFR conditions. West to southwest winds generally 5 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Sunday . VFR conditions expected with only a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. West-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday Night . Showers and thunderstorms with restrictions possible as a warm front lifts north of the region, visibility restrictions possible with patchy fog. Light southwest winds generally around 5 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday . Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front crosses the region. These may lead to temporary restrictions. Southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday Night . Restrictions possible as showers and thunderstorms push off to the north and east. Southwest winds turning westerly from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

Tuesday . VFR conditions expected with west-southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE.

Conditions over the waters will deteriorate starting late tonight into Friday morning as Tropical Storm Fay approaches. Tropical storm conditions will be possible over the NJ ocean waters on Friday while borderline Gale conditions will be possible over the Delaware ocean waters and Delaware Bay. Squalls with heavy rain and lightning will also be possible starting late tonight.

Outlook .

Saturday . Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into the afternoon, with south-southwesterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and occasional gusts from 20 to 25 knots. This will be highly dependent upon how fast the coastal low exits to our northeast. Slower motion will likely extend advisory conditions into the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Seas from 3 to 5 feet on the ocean waters and 1 to 3 feet on the Delaware Bay.

Sunday . SCA conditions possible with southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots and seas from 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. 1 to 2 foot seas expected on the Delaware Bay.

Monday . SCA conditions possible once again with southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas dropping from 4 to 6 feet to 3 to 5 feet.

Tuesday . sub-advisory conditions expected with southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots and seas from 2 to 4 feet across the ocean waters and 1 to 2 feet on the Delaware Bay.

Rip Currents .

Conditions are expected to deteriorate on Friday, as a longer- period swell begins to develop with seas continuing to build as Tropical Storm Fay begins to move into the region. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is therefore forecast for Friday, with potential for an elevated rip current risk to continue through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The area of low pressure moving northward near the coast from tonight through Friday night is not expected to be particularly strong, and it should be somewhat progressive. As a result, we are not anticipating much in the way of tidal flooding. Positive departures in excess of 2 feet are needed to produce minor flooding. It seems as though tidal departures will remain less than 2 feet at most coastal locations on Friday.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027. Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday afternoon for NJZ021>025. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NJZ014-024>026. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for DEZ001. Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday afternoon for DEZ002>004. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for DEZ004. MD . Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for MDZ008. Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr/Davis Near Term . Carr Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Davis Aviation . Davis/Iovino Marine . Carr/Davis/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi49 min NE 1 G 2.9 75°F 84°F1013.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi49 min ENE 8 G 8.9 78°F 1013.4 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi61 min ENE 8 G 11 1013.4 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi49 min 78°F 75°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi49 min ESE 8 G 8.9 79°F 85°F1013.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi49 min NE 4.1 G 6 78°F 84°F1012.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi37 min NE 9.9 G 11 77°F 81°F1014 hPa (+0.4)76°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi49 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 85°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi127 min ENE 1.9 1013 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi49 min NE 5.1 G 7 76°F 79°F1013.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi49 min 76°F 84°F1013.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi49 min NE 8.9 G 12 77°F 84°F1012.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi31 min NE 12 G 14 78°F 82°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi49 min 77°F 1014.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi49 min NNE 1 G 5.1 79°F 85°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast79°F75°F89%1013.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi42 minE 410.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1013.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.7 hrsE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F72°F86%1014.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi43 minENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F85%1013.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi43 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--NE4SE8E3E3CalmE4E6E5E5E8E5E5E4E4CalmNE3NE5
1 day agoSE4SE6--S3S4SE5SE4E6SE6SE6SE7SE7S8SE6SE8--S4S4CalmCalmS3S4S3--
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5E7SE8SE9SE5SE5SE4SE5SE5SE8SE8SE5E3SE5SE9SE8--

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:31 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.10.90.70.60.70.811.31.51.61.61.51.310.70.50.40.50.60.91.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:42 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.50.70.70.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.50.70.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.