Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:31 AM EDT (09:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 435 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S with gusts to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area today before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290834 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 434 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front is forecast to lift into our region today as high pressure slides out to sea. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes today and tonight and it should pass through eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey early on Friday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Friday and Saturday. Another cold front from the northwest is expected to move toward and through our region on Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure should briefly influence our weather on Monday before low pressure passes off the Middle Atlantic coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY .

The key message for today is the threat for severe weather across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the area in an Enhanced risk for severe weather. The threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. The primary threat time will be this afternoon into evening.

Currently, surface high pressure was analyzed across NY and MA with a stalled frontal boundary just northwest of the PA/ NJ border. This frontal zone is leftover from the cold front that cleared the coast yesterday, before retreating back west from an inland moving sea breeze. The aforementioned surface high is already heading east and moving off the coast this morning allowing surface winds to remain calm or light and out of the southeast. This weak surface convergence working in combination with convergence at the nose of a ~20 kt LLJ has allowed for weak showers to form over SEPA and northern DE. These weak showers will continue to expand in coverage this morning and slowly progress east, along with the convergent zone. Simultaneously, an impressive MCS is currently heading south across northern IL. Model guidance has really struggled with how this MCS and attendant MCV will progress through the day today. Even at this stage, CAMs still are having relatively low run to run consistency. The general idea is that the MCV will head southeast over Michigan this morning and approach eastern PA by this afternoon. So what does this mean for us? As described above, the forecast is for the morning showers and isolated thunderstorms to slowly translate east. As this occurs a fractured stratus deck will start to lift. The stalled front currently near the fall line will also lift north as a warm front with rich theta-e air surging northwards. This recycled moisture regime will help to destabilize the region even if the stratus doesn't ever completely clear. Both the GFS and NAM are indicating MLCAPE values of around 1000/1500 J/kg. Still though, the amount of available instability is one of the potential failure modes today (esp. if morning showers prove to be more robust than initially forecast). Generally though, during late July it doesn't take much to destabilize the region.

Early this afternoon the MCV will be approaching from the west with showers and thunderstorms across central PA. Ascent will increase across the region as the MCV approaches. Across the warm sector, effective bulk shear values of ~45 kts will be more than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Some upscale growth is forecast as multiple cold pools start to be deposited and merge. The primary threats with these storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado (thanks to slightly back southeast flow and impressive directional shear). The storms look to enter the CWA most likely around 2 to 4 PM and clear the coast by 8 - 11 PM.

As the storms clear the coast, surface low pressure will be located near the NY/Canada border and be dragging a surface cold front through the area. Winds will slowly turn from the northwest through the night with skies slowly clearing from the west.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A long wave trough will continue to affect the northeastern states from Friday through Saturday night. A couple of short waves are forecast to pass over New York and New England on Friday and Friday night. Any showers associated with short waves will likely remain to our northeast. Surface high pressure is anticipated to slide from the Great Lakes on Friday to the waters off the Middle Atlantic coast on Saturday night, bringing our region dry weather conditions.

The surface high is expected to be accompanied by unseasonably low humidity levels in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and eastern Maryland. Dew point readings are forecast to drop into the 50s by late Friday afternoon and they should favor the upper 40s and lower 50s on Friday night and Saturday. They may begin to creep upward into the middle and upper 50s on Saturday night in the return flow as the high moves off the coast.

High temperatures should be mainly in the 80s on Friday and around 80 degrees on Saturday. Readings will likely not get above the lower and middle 70s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey on either day. Lows are anticipated to favor the 50s on Friday night, and the upper 50s and lower 60s on Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The long wave trough is expected to remain over the eastern states from Sunday through Wednesday. A closed low may develop over Ohio and vicinity on Wednesday. The pattern will prevent the heat and humidity from building back into our region. Daytime highs should favor the range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s with overnight lows mostly from the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

A mid level short wave and its associated surface cold front are anticipated to approach from the northwest on Sunday before making their way across our region on Sunday night. We are mentioning a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The cold front is expected to nearly stall to our south on Monday as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into the northeastern states.

Low pressure developing and traveling along the cold front to our south should impact our weather in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. The guidance differs on the details, timing and number of waves of low pressure, so we will simply keep a chance of precipitation for both days.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z this morning . All TAF sites are VFR this morning as surface high pressure over eastern NY retreats east. However, MVFR cigs will be possible beginning around daybreak as a low stratus deck looks to set up around this time. The most likely formation zone of the stratus will be along and west of the fall line, or between the retreating high pressure and approaching upper level disturbance. Moderate confidence.

Today . MVFR cigs in the morning will likely be rather widespread with weak showers forming along a convergent zone of the retreating high pressure and approaching upper level disturbance. These weak showers will head east in the morning hours with a brief break in the precipitation expected. By early this afternoon an upper level disturbance and corresponding surface low pressure will be quickly approaching from the west. This wave will then likely ignite showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 kt range and gradually shift from SE southerly then to SW/W very late day towards 0z. However, stronger and erratic winds are likely in and near thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall with low confidence in thunderstorm timing.

Tonight . Becoming VFR after evening showers/thunderstorms and associated restrictions. Cold front moves through. Winds gradually shifting from the northwest with prevailing speeds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest. High confidence.

Sunday . Some early morning low clouds and visibility restrictions are possible, otherwise mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. South to southwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. This morning . Sub-SCA conditions expected with southeast winds around 10 kts. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

This afternoon into tonight . Winds will continue strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens with gusts very close to or at SCA criteria. Seas building 3 to 4 ft. Given the above, have issued an SCA for the Atlantic Coastal waters starting at 2 PM this afternoon and continuing until midnight tonight. Thunderstorms will cross the waters late this afternoon into evening. Winds and seas will be higher in and near thunderstorms.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents .

Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts today with gusts at SCA criteria. There will be an onshore component for the NJ coast today as winds veer from the south. Given the above, and the 8 second period forecast, the rip risk for Coastal Cape May and Coastal Atlantic will be MODERATE today. The rest of the beaches will be kept at LOW given the orientation of the coastline relative to the wind direction. Winds shift offshore for Friday, so the rip risk for Friday will be LOW.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.



Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Haines Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . Haines/Iovino Marine . Haines/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi44 min E 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 83°F1015.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi44 min SSE 9.9 G 12 76°F 1014.6 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi44 min SSE 8 G 11 76°F 1014.9 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi44 min 76°F 72°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi44 min S 2.9 G 7 76°F 84°F1014.6 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi38 min SSE 9.7 G 14 74°F 82°F1 ft1015.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi44 min ESE 7 G 9.9 77°F 85°F1014.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi32 min ESE 9.9 G 12 75°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-0.3)75°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi44 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi62 min Calm 68°F 1015 hPa67°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi44 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 1015.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi44 min 72°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi62 min S 1 71°F 1016 hPa71°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi50 min ESE 6 G 7 73°F 84°F1015.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi44 min SE 14 G 18 75°F 82°F2 ft1015.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi44 min E 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 84°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi37 minE 710.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1015.6 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi34 minESE 48.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F71°F99%1015.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi38 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1015.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi38 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F68°F79%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW7N4SE7SE8E6E7E5E5E4E6E5E8E7E8SE9E4E3E4SE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4SE6SE6--SE6SE7SE6SE7SE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3E6E5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
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Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.41.10.90.80.70.811.21.41.51.51.41.210.70.50.40.50.711.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.300.40.60.70.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.80.9

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