Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:18 PM CST (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 102312 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 512 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

. AVIATION UPDATE .

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

As of mid-afternoon, the center of a 1030mb surface ridge was sliding southward out of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Looking aloft, water vapor imagery depicted a broad troughing pattern in place across the Midwest with a stream of moisture moving over the eastern US ahead of a 500hpa shortwave trough over TX. Closer to home, a mid level deck of clouds and associated light radar reflectivities was moving across north-central portions of the state. However, no evidence of precip was noticed on sfc obs given the very dry airmass in place. A few high resolution models are showing another quick moving batch of very light precip moving through the northwest flow over the CWA. Have kept POPS less than 15 percent with no mention of precip given low level dry air in place and lack of any obvious lift.

The surface ridge will continue southward tonight as another ridge moves out of Canada. In the meantime, lee cyclogenesis will occur in the Colorado Front Range tomorrow in response to an upper wave moving across the Rockies. Southerly flow will set up over the CWA allowing for low level WAA to commence. As a result, temperatures should be noticeably warmer tomorrow afternoon with highs forecast to reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

In the long-term, conditions stay fairly settled until a more active pattern sets up during the weekend/early next week.

On Thursday, the surface low over CO will sweep northeast across western and northern KS with no impactful weather expected to occur here. Temperatures continue to moderate with highs in the low 50s for much of the area Thursday and mid 50s on Friday. A cold front is then expected to move through the area Friday night followed by the arrival of a much cooler airmass. The EC model is hinting at precip occurring behind the front in an area of weak ascent on Saturday. The going forecast is currently dry, but we will monitor trends for the possibility of introducing POPS on Saturday. Attention then turns to a system brewing over the western CONUS on Sunday. At this range, there is not good agreement between models regarding chances and timing of potential precipitation. As of right now, models show a surface low working across TX on Monday, which would place northeast KS too far north for the most favorable area of decent snowfall. Confidence in details should begin to increase as we move closer so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Water vapor imagery suggests the subtle upper trough axis is beginning to move east of the forecast area. This along with models showing mid level frontogenesis weakening and a relatively dry low level airmass still in place should allow VFR conditions to prevail. There remains the possibility for some LLWS overnight due to a strengthening low level jet after the boundary layer has decoupled.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Teefey LONG TERM . Teefey AVIATION . Wolters

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi26 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds30°F12°F49%1029.8 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi27 minN 09.00 miPartly Cloudy26°F15°F63%1030.1 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi26 minWNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F12°F45%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTOP

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW6W3W3SW3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmW4NW3CalmW3W8NW7N11NW9N8
G17		NW9NW10NW8W4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SW3SW4S3S4W7NW5NW12NW19
G29		NW20
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G32		NW22
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G22		NW10
2 days agoS7SE5SE5SE4SE3S5CalmS5S5S7SW6S8S7S3SW7S7SW11
G20		SW11S8S7SW5S5CalmNE3
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.