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FXUS63 KTOP 040846 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 246 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Forecast Key Messages:

- Any area fog this morning should be shallow and mainly over the Missouri river valley areas.

- Less than a 15% chance for any showers this evening as one more minor shortwave passes over portions of northeastern KS.

- Mainly near to above normal temperatures through this week beginning today. Could be near 70 on Thursday.

- Still too much variability in the storm system next weekend. Could develop over or just east of the area.

Forecast Discussion:

The upper air pattern continues to evolve steadily with a minor shortwave helping to advance the larger wave trough axis east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. A broad long wave ridge continues to build over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft still remains over the local area. This will allow a corridor for one last minor shortwave to influence conditions this evening across the area. Weak DCVA should provide enough ascent this evening to bring more clouds across the area. Some may develop a few light showers or produce a few sprinkles or light drizzle across portions of the area once again. Have kept any precipitation chances less than 15% for now as subcloud dry air and minimal depth of saturation appear to be in play as this shortwave works overhead and a subtle boundary works through the area during the evening and early overnight hours.

Also, this afternoon, high fire danger may set up for a couple hours this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase and relative humidity drops to around 30 percent before clouds move in along with the aforementioned minor shortwave and associated weak surface boundary which helps winds veer from the southwest to the northwest.

Tuesday may be slightly cooler with the northerly breeze but then the ridge builds east helping to deepen a lee trough bringing southwest winds back to the area. The southerly flow, along with increasing H85 temperatures, help afternoon highs reach the 50s and 60s with near 70 possible Thursday. Should be windy Thursday with increasing mixing heights.

The overall progressive pattern continues with another Pacific trough digging into the central Plains by the weekend. Still highly variable on the overall track and development of the overall system.
Looks like the best Gulf moisture probably remains east of the area along with development of surface boundaries which appears to be one of the ideas with the most consistency amongst long range solutions.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

MVFR stratus will continue through 8Z behind the surface cold front. Eventually, through the early morning hours, isentropic downglide should scatter out the stratus. KTOP and KFOE could see some light drizzle through 7Z as well. after 9Z expect VFR conditions.



TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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