Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS
July 3, 2024 12:36 AM CDT (05:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM Moonset 6:20 PM |
FXUS63 KTOP 022318 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat Advisory continues until 8pm.
- Severe thunderstorms look to develop by late this afternoon with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. Flood Watch has been issued for parts of northeast and east central KS.
- Additional rounds of thunderstorms, potentially severe, are possible Wednesday night and again on Independence Day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Cold front has entered our north central KS counties with the inverted sfc trough bisecting the CWA as of 19Z. Broad cyclonic flow now encompasses much of the northern Rockies and Plains with southwesterly flow over the area. Mid to high clouds cover much of the western half of the forecast area with showers having developed along the sfc trough axis as well as near and just behind the front itself. Outside of this, hot and muggy conditions will continue through the afternoon with heat indices between 105-110.
Both SPC mesoanalysis and our 18Z RAOB indicate substantial MLCIN remaining early this afternoon, though further mixing and heating should help to erode the cap with chances for more robust convection increasing toward 4-5pm when MLCAPE increases to around 3000 J/kg with shear around 30-40 kt. An inverted-V profile and DCAPE up to 1000-1400 J/kg should support a damaging wind threat. If a strong enough updraft were to develop initially, perhaps some hail would be possible, but high freezing levels lead to lower confidence in this threat. Confidence in the tornado threat has also lowered, given that the front is moving east a little faster, which is helping to place that risk further northeast into MO and IA.
What may be the bigger concern, in addition to some damaging winds, is potential for heavy rain and flooding. Storm motions parallel to the boundary would likely result in storm mode becoming messy quickly with interactions between individual storms. Pwat values are already approaching 2" in far northeast KS and that 2 to 2.2" moisture axis is progged to drop back south and set up near the frontal boundary when the stronger convection develops. While ensemble means aren't showing much potential for widespread high rain amounts, a closer look at individual CAMs shows the potential for isolated locations receiving between 1-3" of rain, which seems reasonable for thunderstorms given the moisture in the column.
Additionally, these heavier amounts look to occur over areas that have recently had heavy rain and flooding issues. The 6-hr flash flood guidance of 2-3" and 1-hr guidance between 1-2" lends to some concern that efficient rain-producing thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding. So have issued a Flood Watch for portions of northeast and east central KS from 5pm this afternoon through 7am Wednesday.
There could be some lingering, weakening storms in southern portions of the area Wednesday morning. The sfc front looks to be south of the area by this time, but could lift back north as a warm front Wednesday into Thursday. An embedded perturbation in the flow aloft should kick off another round of convection late Wednesday into early Thursday with winds and heavy rain again being the main concerns. Confidence in the forecast for the 4th of July holiday on Thursday still isn't overly high as it will depend on where sfc boundaries end up after the overnight/morning convection. At this time though, there are some hints that perhaps the upper trough and associated sfc front are trending a bit further east. If this holds, that could mean less of a severe risk particularly for western parts of the area, but everyone should still keep an eye on the forecast as details change in the coming days. Eastern KS could still see damaging winds and heavy rain with storms that remain as long as the front is still in the area.
Once the holiday passes, the more notable upper trough looks to be passing northeast of the area to give us a bit of a break from the active weather Friday into Saturday. Longer-range guidance has another system bringing another rain chance Sunday into Monday, but probabilities are on the lower side with lower confidence at this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The main aviation hazard over the first half of the TAF will be scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain. Rain intensity at times could reduce visibilites below VFR at times and added mention of this in a TEMPO group for KTOP and KFOE.
VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF with chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder by Wednesday afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat Advisory continues until 8pm.
- Severe thunderstorms look to develop by late this afternoon with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. Flood Watch has been issued for parts of northeast and east central KS.
- Additional rounds of thunderstorms, potentially severe, are possible Wednesday night and again on Independence Day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Cold front has entered our north central KS counties with the inverted sfc trough bisecting the CWA as of 19Z. Broad cyclonic flow now encompasses much of the northern Rockies and Plains with southwesterly flow over the area. Mid to high clouds cover much of the western half of the forecast area with showers having developed along the sfc trough axis as well as near and just behind the front itself. Outside of this, hot and muggy conditions will continue through the afternoon with heat indices between 105-110.
Both SPC mesoanalysis and our 18Z RAOB indicate substantial MLCIN remaining early this afternoon, though further mixing and heating should help to erode the cap with chances for more robust convection increasing toward 4-5pm when MLCAPE increases to around 3000 J/kg with shear around 30-40 kt. An inverted-V profile and DCAPE up to 1000-1400 J/kg should support a damaging wind threat. If a strong enough updraft were to develop initially, perhaps some hail would be possible, but high freezing levels lead to lower confidence in this threat. Confidence in the tornado threat has also lowered, given that the front is moving east a little faster, which is helping to place that risk further northeast into MO and IA.
What may be the bigger concern, in addition to some damaging winds, is potential for heavy rain and flooding. Storm motions parallel to the boundary would likely result in storm mode becoming messy quickly with interactions between individual storms. Pwat values are already approaching 2" in far northeast KS and that 2 to 2.2" moisture axis is progged to drop back south and set up near the frontal boundary when the stronger convection develops. While ensemble means aren't showing much potential for widespread high rain amounts, a closer look at individual CAMs shows the potential for isolated locations receiving between 1-3" of rain, which seems reasonable for thunderstorms given the moisture in the column.
Additionally, these heavier amounts look to occur over areas that have recently had heavy rain and flooding issues. The 6-hr flash flood guidance of 2-3" and 1-hr guidance between 1-2" lends to some concern that efficient rain-producing thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding. So have issued a Flood Watch for portions of northeast and east central KS from 5pm this afternoon through 7am Wednesday.
There could be some lingering, weakening storms in southern portions of the area Wednesday morning. The sfc front looks to be south of the area by this time, but could lift back north as a warm front Wednesday into Thursday. An embedded perturbation in the flow aloft should kick off another round of convection late Wednesday into early Thursday with winds and heavy rain again being the main concerns. Confidence in the forecast for the 4th of July holiday on Thursday still isn't overly high as it will depend on where sfc boundaries end up after the overnight/morning convection. At this time though, there are some hints that perhaps the upper trough and associated sfc front are trending a bit further east. If this holds, that could mean less of a severe risk particularly for western parts of the area, but everyone should still keep an eye on the forecast as details change in the coming days. Eastern KS could still see damaging winds and heavy rain with storms that remain as long as the front is still in the area.
Once the holiday passes, the more notable upper trough looks to be passing northeast of the area to give us a bit of a break from the active weather Friday into Saturday. Longer-range guidance has another system bringing another rain chance Sunday into Monday, but probabilities are on the lower side with lower confidence at this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The main aviation hazard over the first half of the TAF will be scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain. Rain intensity at times could reduce visibilites below VFR at times and added mention of this in a TEMPO group for KTOP and KFOE.
VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF with chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder by Wednesday afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTOP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTOP
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTOP
Wind History graph: TOP
(wind in knots)
Topeka, KS,
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