Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough extending from the central Rockies, southwest across AZ.
A broad area of southwesterly mid-level flow of 45 to 60 KTS extended from northern Mexico, northeast across NM/west TX into the Plains and upper Midwest.

Late this morning, a cold front extended from eastern MN, south- southwest across eastern NE, then southwest into eastern CO. A dryline line extended south-southwest from the cold front in eastern NE, to east of Marysville, to near ABI, then south-southwest to west of Anthony, KS, then southwest across far western OK. Ahead of the dryline dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints across southeast KS. West of the dryline, dewpoints were in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Thia afternoon through Tonight:

Interesting that the most CAMs are showing the richer moisture mixing out ahead of the dryline along and north of I-70. The richer surface moisture may only extend from near ICT, northeast across the southeast counties of the CWA, to the southeast of I-35. However, the NSSL-WRF and 4KM NAM shows thunderstorms developing along the dryline between Seneca and MHK. The other CAMs show thunderstorms developing along the dryline across north central OK/south central KS, then tracking northeast along and southeast of I-35. A surface low will deepen across western KS, thus the dryline will probably reach a Seneca, to MHK, to Abilene line by 5 PM before retrograding west this evening. Any discrete supercell that develops along the dryline late this afternoon and early evening will produce large hail, 2 inches or greater, localized damaging wind gusts, along with possible tornadoes.
The environment ahead of the dryline south of I-70, will posses MLCAPES of 3000-3500 J/kg, effective shear of 50 KTS, and curved low-level hodographs that will produce stream-wise horizontal vorticity in the sfc-1KM depth for strong low-level vertical vorticity, once a storm's updraft tilts the horizontal vorticity into the vertical, then stretched.

We will be doing a 19Z special sounding to see if some of the CAMs are correct in mixing out the richer moisture north of I-70 ahead of the dryline. Overall, I would say storm coverage will be greater south of I-70 with initial discrete supercells late this afternoon into the early evening, then line segments developing as scattered supercells merge, along with line segments from merging supercells across south central/north central OK that will move northeast across the southeast counties during the mid and late evening hours.

Tonight, the dryline will retrograde west into north central and central KS. I can't rule out some isolated elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday, as a 50 to 60 KT LLJ develops through the early morning hours, which could provide enough ascent for a few elevated storms.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:

The H5 trough across the central Rockies and southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains but will dampen as it moves east.

The surface low will move northeast along the border into west central IA by 00Z. A Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline. The question will be how fast will the Pacific front shift east across the CWA The NAM, ECMWF, and GFS show the Pacific front across most of the CWA by 21Z. Thunderstorms may develop across the southeast counties, but veering surface winds will probably cause a line of storms to develop. This line may produce isolated severe wind gusts in the southeast counties but most of the severe weather will be east of the CWA

Thursday, we will see a break in the thunderstorms, as an amplified H5 trough digs southeast from the Pacific northwest into the west central US. A down stream H5 ridge will move east across the Plains.
The Pacific front will undergo frontolysis across southeast KS and northern OK on Thursday. The winds will become southerly through the day on Thursday.

Friday through Saturday morning:

The H5 trough across the west central US will dig southeast across the Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of the H5 trough in the warm sector, thunderstorms will develop along the cold front and dryline during the afternoon hours. MLCAPE will probably be above 2000 J/KG and there will be good vertical wind shear as the the surface low deepens across west central KS during the afternoon hours. All the longer range models are in agreement though the GFS is a bit more amplified and progressive over the ECMWF and Canadian. The question will be the strength of forcing ahead of the H5 Trough. Strong ascent may allow for numerous storms to develop and these storms may congeal into a line of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The line will move east out of the CWA late Friday night into Early Saturday morning.

The weekend will be cooler behind the front with highs Saturday in the mid to upper 50s. There may be some light rain showers through the morning until the H5 trough shifts east of KS.

More insolation will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Sunday morning there may be a freeze across the northern counties with lows of 29-30 degrees. The remainder of The CWA may see frost develop with lows of 33 to 36 degrees.

An H5 ridge will move east across the Plains Monday and Tuesday.
Expect a warm-up with highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and mid 70s to around 80 on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

There will be a better chance for thunderstorms this evening across the KTOP and KFOE terminals, so I left in the prob30 for thunderstorms between 00Z-04Z. I placed in VCTS for MHK for this evening.

Winds should stay remain from the south-southwest through the 24 hours taf period in the 12 to 22 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS. So, I will not place in low-level windshear.

There may be a few hours of BKN MVFR ceilings betweeen 11Z and 14Z WED. But confidence is low to place in the TAF.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop.
South- southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Tomorrow a Pacific cold front will move through north central KS. The dewpoints will only be around 30 percent during the afternoon hours and westerly winds will be lighter.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034.