Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 10:53 PM Moonset 7:44 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 140807 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 307 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Decaying MCS this morning results in additional convection possible later this morning and afternoon for portions of central Kansas.
- Occasional shower and storm chances persist tonight through early next week. Mesoscale attributes and weak forcing determines the severity of convection.
- Seasonably warm temps in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast today through much of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Several MCS clusters have developed throughout the higher terrain of western KS and NE this morning. The elevated CAPE gradient oriented northwest to southeast over central KS suggests this activity should remain west of the forecast area through sunrise. Short term guidance has been consistent in the last several hours of a residual outflow boundary aided by decent WAA setting up over central Kansas, developing additional scattered storms by late morning (generally south of I-70). Effective shear in the mid levels remains fairly weak (< 30 kts) despite decent instability in excess of 3000 J/KG.
If you are able to get a rotating updraft, large hail and gusty winds are the main hazards, albeit the probability is low.
Overall forecast is uncertain given the subtle weak forcing and warm temps aloft to necessitate organized convection within northeast Kansas this evening. Other than the 00Z Nam and GFS, majority of HRRR guidance remains dry other than an isolated storm or two so have lowered pops to slight chances this evening. Sunday should be mostly dry with low chances for scattered showers and storms to redevelop along any residual boundaries, which remains to be seen as mid range models continue to advertise a slow moving upper trough and MCS sliding southward through northeast Kansas.
The warm, moist airmass and subtle waves aloft suggest slight pops are prudent heading into Monday early evening. Forecast soundings suggest decent instability and modest hodographs, despite uncertainty in forcing. A stronger, upper shortwave trough and frontal boundary drops south early Tuesday morning, signaling higher probs for an MCS to spread into northern Kansas by Tuesday morning, potentially redeveloping storms in the late afternoon and evening elsewhere. These storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The upper ridge begins to build in Wednesday onward, lowering rain chances while overall highs hold on the warm side in the lower to middle 90s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR at terminals with latest forecast soundings trending with lesser probs for fog development at KTOP near sunrise. Light winds veer to the southeast at around 10 kts this afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 307 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Decaying MCS this morning results in additional convection possible later this morning and afternoon for portions of central Kansas.
- Occasional shower and storm chances persist tonight through early next week. Mesoscale attributes and weak forcing determines the severity of convection.
- Seasonably warm temps in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast today through much of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Several MCS clusters have developed throughout the higher terrain of western KS and NE this morning. The elevated CAPE gradient oriented northwest to southeast over central KS suggests this activity should remain west of the forecast area through sunrise. Short term guidance has been consistent in the last several hours of a residual outflow boundary aided by decent WAA setting up over central Kansas, developing additional scattered storms by late morning (generally south of I-70). Effective shear in the mid levels remains fairly weak (< 30 kts) despite decent instability in excess of 3000 J/KG.
If you are able to get a rotating updraft, large hail and gusty winds are the main hazards, albeit the probability is low.
Overall forecast is uncertain given the subtle weak forcing and warm temps aloft to necessitate organized convection within northeast Kansas this evening. Other than the 00Z Nam and GFS, majority of HRRR guidance remains dry other than an isolated storm or two so have lowered pops to slight chances this evening. Sunday should be mostly dry with low chances for scattered showers and storms to redevelop along any residual boundaries, which remains to be seen as mid range models continue to advertise a slow moving upper trough and MCS sliding southward through northeast Kansas.
The warm, moist airmass and subtle waves aloft suggest slight pops are prudent heading into Monday early evening. Forecast soundings suggest decent instability and modest hodographs, despite uncertainty in forcing. A stronger, upper shortwave trough and frontal boundary drops south early Tuesday morning, signaling higher probs for an MCS to spread into northern Kansas by Tuesday morning, potentially redeveloping storms in the late afternoon and evening elsewhere. These storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The upper ridge begins to build in Wednesday onward, lowering rain chances while overall highs hold on the warm side in the lower to middle 90s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR at terminals with latest forecast soundings trending with lesser probs for fog development at KTOP near sunrise. Light winds veer to the southeast at around 10 kts this afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTOP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTOP
Wind History Graph: TOP
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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