Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 11:31 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS63 KTOP 271126 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 626 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong to severe thunderstorms remain in the forecast today with all modes of severe weather possible.

-A few strong storms could develop again tomorrow in eastern KS as a front continues to move through the area.

-Most days next week have at least low end POPs with an active pattern continuing.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Water vapor imagery and mid level chart analysis show a lead mid- level system progressing northward into the Upper Midwest, with another digging across the Four Corners region early today. At the surface, one sfc low is centered over southern Minnesota with another remaining near where OK/TX/NM meet. In between, a frontal boundary is positioned across northeast and central KS with a dryline evident from western OK into north-central TX. Strong southerly moisture transport will continue to advect higher moisture back into the area this morning while the surface boundary retreats back to the north as a warm front. 08Z mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE remaining in place over the forecast area with quite a bit of CIN also evident.
Stratus that develops with low level moisture increase early today will erode by early afternoon, allowing any lingering cap to disappear.

Discerning the convective evolution of storms today is the main forecast challenge. Have slight chances for a few elevated storms this morning in the axis of moisture advection near the retreating boundary. More robust convection could then develop south of the area as instability builds and the jet increases aloft. That activity would then track northward into the CWA Convective initiation could concurrently occur along the warm front across northern and north-central KS this afternoon. As previously advertised, the environment will be supportive of significant severe weather due to upwards of 3000 J/kg of uninhibited SBCAPE, 0-3km SRH increasing to above 200 m2/s2 and deep layer shear values around 50 kts. Thus, very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Heavy rainfall could also occur and a Flood Watch remains in effect across eastern KS. Activity should wane into the late evening and overnight hours. However, a few CAMs are showing the possibility of additional development of non-severe elevated storms overnight with additional mid-level PVA.

On Sunday, the main trough axis will remain west of the area while the surface low moves into southeast Nebraska. A trailing cold front will work through northeast KS during the afternoon. Instability will again increase east of the boundary, which could lead to the development of a few more storms in far eastern KS. Instability and shear will not be as impressive as today, but there should be enough to lead to at least a marginal risk for severe weather.
Once the front makes it east of the area, dry weather is expected for at least a brief time early in the workweek. POPs increase again on Tuesday when another surface boundary may move through the region. Temperatures stay warm through next week but most days come with at least low end POPs as an active synoptic pattern continues.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Main aviation hazards this period include strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty sfc winds and MVFR conditions. MVFR CIGS are expected for a few hours this morning with the stratus that moved over sites early today. CIGS should scatter to VFR by early afternoon. South winds increase by 15Z and will gust to between 25 and 30 kts through the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm chances also increase through the morning and midday. Exact timing of storm impacts at airports remain somewhat uncertain, but coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon.
Amendments will be made to TAFs as necessary.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Sunday morning for KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

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Topeka, KS,