Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Little Creek, DE

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:41PM Sunday December 15, 2019 10:36 AM EST (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 947 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain or snow likely in the morning, then rain likely or freezing rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 947 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Deep low pressure will continue to move north over eastern canada through today while high pressure builds in to our south and west. This high will move over the region tonight before moving off to the north and east Monday. A warm front slowly lifts northward into our area by later Monday, as low pressure tracks eastward along it and crosses our region during Tuesday. High pressure builds in later Wednesday through Friday, then weakens into Saturday as the next low pressure system may approach by this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Creek, DE
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location: 39.22, -75.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 151534 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1034 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Deep low pressure will continue to move north over eastern Canada through today while high pressure builds in to our south and west. This high will move over the region tonight before moving off to the north and east Monday. A warm front slowly lifts northward into our area by later Monday, as low pressure tracks eastward along it and crosses our region during Tuesday. High pressure builds in later Wednesday through Friday, then weakens into Saturday as the next low pressure system may approach by this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A tight pressure gradient remains across the area in between a strong low pressure over eastern Canada and High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This is keeping a steady west to northwest flow across the area. Now that daytime mixing has begun, stronger winds from aloft will again begin mixing down to the surface. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph, with occasional gusty of 35-45 mph will be possible across portions of the Poconos.

Embedded within this west to northwest flow a weak surface trough will move across the area through today. Meanwhile, a short wave/vorticity impulse will move across the area as well. There is some moisture being trapped underneath the inversion which is keeping partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of the area. There could be enough lift with the short wave/vorticity impulse to interact moisture and squeeze out a few sprinkles, or flurries in the Poconos, into this afternoon. Any precipitation would be light and not amount to much.

For tonight, winds will diminish quickly early this evening both due to the diurnal cycle as well as a weakening pressure gradient as high pressure moves in from the west. Skies will clear for a time as the high builds over the area but by later tonight mid and high clouds will increase ahead of the next approaching system. Nevertheless, still expect that with a period of mainly clear skies and diminishing winds this evening along with low dew points that lows should dip into the 20s to low 30s setting the stage for our next system. Most of the precip with this system will hold off until the day Monday but by late tonight there could be some light mixed precip developing over the Delmarva into southern NJ with the leading edge of light snow nearing SE PA.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Complex winter-weather event will unfold during this period, which may come in two fairly distinct phases. The first will occur on Monday as a surface low organizes in the southern U.S. with a strengthening baroclinic zone stretching east-northeast to the Mid- Atlantic. As the low intensifies in the right-rear quadrant of a 140+ kt 250-mb jet streak positioned from the Ohio Valley to southern New England, sustained warm advection will occur on the upstream side of a broad surface high encompassing much of the western Atlantic into New England. Precipitation will spread eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic through the day as the strength of the isentropic lift increases, but models are disagreeing with the exact placement of the baroclinic zone and the speed with which the precipitation saturates the antecedent low- level (dry) air. The trend has been for a more southern position of the baroclinic zone (which also agrees with model errors with the system so far well to our west), so have spread higher PoPs into our area farther to the south on Monday (and have lowered them a bit farther to the north). I also am suspicious the higher-resolution output is too quick to saturate the low levels. Precipitation may not become substantive until after the Monday morning rush. Additionally, the precip will have a difficult time moving northward given the closer proximity to the surface high and farther distance from the strongest isentropic lift, suggesting areas north of the I- 78 corridor may struggle to see precipitation for a lengthy portion of the day.

The low-level thermal profiles will be favorable for snow north of the baroclinic zone at onset. However, the higher QPF may be just south of the freezing line, which will likely limit snow totals to some degree (as well as the residual effects of the retreating surface high). Finally, the timing of the event is not particularly favorable for higher snow totals (as temperatures will diurnally warm, aided by continued warm advection). Most model guidance is suggesting snow will generally be a couple inches or less in most of the area.

One of the most difficult aspects to this first portion of the event will be surface temperatures. The models are in their usual camps (NAM on the cold side; GFS/CMC warmer). The ECMWF is siding with the NAM, which tends to perform better in these types of events. I weighted the forecast on the cold side, with a much slower transition to liquid precipitation for much of the area. Could see some sleet and freezing rain mix in with the rain and snow, as the low-level thermal profile will be hovering near the freezing mark as surface temperatures slowly warm. This precipitation transition will creep northward through the day, perhaps near or just north of Philadelphia by late in the day.

Phase two of the event takes over Monday night and Tuesday, perhaps separated by a relative lull in precipitation (during the afternoon/early evening). During this phase of the event, a warm nose will develop around 800 mb (aided by a synoptically enhanced low-level jet). As isentropic lift continues to increase in advance of the surface low lifting northeast through the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians overnight, precipitation will increase once again. The near-surface air will warm more slowly than aloft, likely allowing for a period of sleet and freezing rain generally north and west of the I-276/I-195 corridors. Any remaining snow in the Poconos and northern New Jersey will slowly transition to freezing rain and sleet as well. Models are quite varied in timing the transition from south to north (and the speed of the warming in general), but the setup appears conducive for a period of icing in this general region Monday night, perhaps lingering into Tuesday morning north of the I-78 corridor. Some of the ECMWF and SREF ensemble members have substantial ice accumulations in the northern third to half of the CWA. However, other members have little or nothing, with the warmer guidance suggesting the near-surface air is scoured relatively quickly after the warm nose develops. A tough forecast, to be sure.

Currently, expect ice totals of a trace to a few hundredths near the I-76 corridor and a tenth or two north of the I-195/I-276 corridors. Uncertainty is high, as freezing rain will likely mix with snow/sleet during the transition period, and surface temperatures may warm more quickly than forecast (i.e., the window for icing would be cut short). Totals may not be much higher in the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey, as more of the precipitation may occur as snow/sleet, and the highest precipitation totals may occur farther to the south.

Temperatures will continue to warm on Tuesday, with the transition to plain rain creeping northward to the higher elevations of the Poconos by afternoon. However, as the surface low moves offshore, colder air will filter into the area from the north and west, with precipitation type likely returning to snow late in the day in the northern CWA. That is, if the precipitation does not taper off first (a distinct possibility). For the rest of the area, precipitation should have ended well in advance of sub-freezing temperatures.

One thing to watch Tuesday afternoon into the long term is the winds. If icing is substantial in the northern CWA, the stronger northwest winds in the wake of the system may be effective in downing some tree limbs and power lines.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Precipitation should be to the north/east of the area by Tuesday night as the surface low progresses to the northwest Atlantic. However, a strong/digging trough will quickly move into the Northeast on Wednesday, allowing for some snow showers in the Poconos and vicinity. The ambient environment is favorable for snow squalls in much of the CWA, as model soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer with nearly saturated parcels at the capping inversion with non-zero CAPE. However, not sold on this potential yet outside of the far north/west (given more consistent model output to our north, in closer proximity to the strongest large- scale lift). For now, have left mention of this potential out of the forecast, pending more consistent model support.

Main concern for the end of the week will be the much colder temperatures. With strong winds looking likely Wednesday and lingering into Wednesday night, wind chills will fall into teens and twenties during the day and in the single digits and teens Wednesday night and Thursday morning (likely sub-zero in the Poconos).

High pressure will build into the region to close the week, with continued cold temperatures but dry conditions. Models are suggesting the development of a coastal low next weekend, but this is approaching la-la-land in model world. Obviously, we will monitor this potential in the coming days.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt possible through the latter part of the morning into the early afternoon before winds diminish late in the afternoon and evening. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Light west winds becoming light and variable late.

Outlook .

Monday . Restrictions likely with a mix of rain and snow. Light east to northeast winds. High confidence in sub-VFR and winds; low confidence in precipitation type.

Monday night . Restrictions likely with rain near/south of Philly and a wintry mix to the north. Light northeast winds at the Philly terminals and north; variable winds at ILG/MIV/ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Restrictions likely with mainly rain (possibly freezing rain/sleet at ABE). Winds becoming northwest and increasing to 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . Becoming mainly VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR, though MVFR CIGs may develop (especially northwest of PHL). Cannot rule out a snow shower at RDG/ABE. Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Low confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Higher gusts possible Wednesday evening and again on Thursday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place for Delaware Bay and the Delaware Atlantic coast. The Gale Warning remains in effect for the New Jersey Atlantic coast. Ocean waters with seas generally 5 to 8 feet.

Winds and waves diminish for all waters this evening.

Outlook .

Monday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of snow and visibility restrictions.

Monday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of rain and visibility restrictions.

Tuesday . Advisory winds/seas probable with a chance of rain/visibility restrictions.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night . At least advisory conditions probable, and gales possible, as winds become northwesterly.

Thursday . Lingering advisory conditions possible, but winds and seas should be lowering during the day.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ454- 455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431.



Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Fitzsimmons/Robertson Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS/O'Hara/Robertson Aviation . CMS/Fitzsimmons Marine . CMS/Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 6 mi49 min WSW 21 G 26 47°F 45°F1012 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi49 min 1012.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 26 mi49 min SW 16 G 18 46°F 46°F1012.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi55 min 48°F 43°F1010.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 29 mi55 min WSW 7 G 11 48°F 46°F1011 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 32 mi49 min WSW 8.9 G 15 48°F 46°F1013.1 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi55 min WSW 7 G 16 48°F 42°F1011.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi55 min 45°F 43°F1010.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi55 min SSW 14 G 18 46°F 44°F1012.5 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi49 min 47°F 45°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE9 mi41 minWSW 13 G 1710.00 miFair49°F34°F57%1012.5 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ17 mi43 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair48°F34°F58%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE11E8E4NE6N4E6E11E13----N11N11N10N8NE8NE6NE7NE4N4NW5N4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE6E7E7E4E6SE5CalmCalmCalmE3E7E7NE9E7NE6N4NE6N5NE4N5NW5NE5E5E8

Tide / Current Tables for Mahon River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mahon River entrance
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Sun -- 05:48 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:41 AM EST     6.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.643.11.90.7-0.1-0.30.41.93.65.26.36.5653.62.10.8-0.1-0.30.41.634.1

Tide / Current Tables for Money Island, Nantuxent Creek entrance, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Money Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:42 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:25 AM EST     6.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:37 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.34.32.91.60.70.1-00.72.44.45.86.56.45.64.22.81.70.80.1012.64.25.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.