Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Little Creek, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:43PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 5:46 AM EST (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 403 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain until late afternoon, then showers likely late.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 403 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will shift offshore through Wednesday. A surface low in the central plains Wednesday morning will lift through the ohio valley and northeast Wednesday night and Thursday, with an attendant cold front moving through the mid-atlantic Thursday night. A reinforcing front will move through the region Friday night. High pressure will progress rapidly through the eastern u.s. This weekend. A strong storm system is expected to affect the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Creek, DE
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location: 39.22, -75.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 250910 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 410 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to move offshore as low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast. This low will drag a cold front across our region Thursday night followed by a secondary front Friday night. High pressure will work its way across the eastern U.S. over the weekend before a complex storm system evolves early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. A cloudy day is in store ahead of a weak storm system for the Thanksgiving holiday. With a warm front having lifted northward through the region overnight, the introductory WAA will boost our temperatures back above normal by five degrees or so with highs in the mid 50s, save for the southern Poconos, where highs will stay in the mid 40s. We will remain dry today, with only a very slight chance for a quick sprinkle in the afternoon in the Poconos and far northwestern NJ as a precip shield attempts to build eastward along and south of the aforementioned warm front.

A secondary warm front will work its way into the region from the south tonight as the main surface low of interest lifts across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. Rain chances really begin to increase with the passage of this front, with stronger forcing associated with a cold front to our west scooping up the warm, moist southerly flow. Rather poor upper-level jet dynamics keep the overall strength of this surface low at bay, thus, nothing out of the ordinary is forecast aside from a modest, soaking rain through the Thanksgiving holiday.

As a secondary area of low pressure moves across southern Canada, this low will begin to pinch off, with gradual decay across the eastern U.S. Thus, overall forcing will remain on the weaker side with rainfall totals generally around half an inch, though a few totals up to an inch will be possible. Rain will gradually move off to the north an east as the cold front crosses from west to east across the region Thursday afternoon. A few lingering showers will be possible behind the front. A mild Thanksgiving otherwise, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and temperatures don't look to rapidly fall behind the front, given the overall paltry nature of the associated storm system.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure starts to briefly build in behind the upper level trough Thursday night. Light westerly to northwesterly flow will prevail with quiet weather under partly cloudy skies. Lows will be generally above normal in the low 40s with highs on Friday in the upper 50s/low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The focus of the extended remains the potentially strong system that should begin affecting the eastern half of the US coming out of the weekend.

Over the weekend the forecast is dry with modest cold air advection bringing temps to near normal. Winds should be fairly breezy on Saturday however with high pressure aloft expect the boundary layer to decouple each evening allowing for decent to perhaps even strong radiational cooling.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop over the Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon and rapidly start to deepen as it lifts north. The 00z suite of guidance indicates that the low will rapidly deepen and become vertically stacked over the Ohio Valley region heading into Tuesday. With the low to our west, we should be slightly warmer Monday however a strong cold front looks to track through the region on Tuesday bringing a non- diurnal temperature curve. Consensus between the guidance right now is that we'd like see a widespread rainfall event with the potential for a flash freeze on the backside. With timing and intensity subject to change multiple times we'll continue to monitor model trends in order to increase confidence in the specific forecast.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Cloudy but VFR with southeasterly winds turning southerly from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . MVFR CIGs developing as rain moves into the region after midnight. IFR restrictions possible as the rain overtakes the region near or after 06Z. Southerly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . IFR conditions likely as periods of light to moderate rain moves across the region. Possible improvement to MVFR after 18Z as heavier rain moves off to the north and east. Southerly winds from 5 to 10 knots turning westerly after 18Z as a cold front moves across the region. Moderate confidence overall, lower confidence in exact timing of categorical and wind shift changes.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR. Westerly wind less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Friday night and Saturday . Mainly VFR with west to northwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt on Saturday with higher gusts. High confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday . Mainly VFR with winds quickly becoming light/variable Saturday night, before becoming more easterly to southerly on Sunday. Increasing cloudiness on Sunday possible, but with mid-to-high CIGs. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Today and tonight . Generally sub-advisory conditions with southwesterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to near 25 knots at times. Overall, expect winds to remain below advisory criteria. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday . Generally sub-advisory level southerly winds from 15 to 20 knots and a few gusts approaching 25 knots. Winds shifting to the southwest after 2 pm. Seas from 3 to 5 feet will likely warrant an advisory in the afternoon, however.

Outlook .

Wednesday night and Thursday . SCA anticipated Thursday (and possibly as early as Wednesday night) due to waves with winds up to 20 kts in a steady southerly flow.

Thursday night through Saturday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

Saturday night and Sunday . Generally sub-advisory conditions expected with possible northwesterly gusts up to 25 kts early Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Davis Short Term . Deal Long Term . Deal Aviation . Davis/Deal Marine . Davis/Deal


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 6 mi47 min 47°F 1028.3 hPa (-1.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi47 min SSW 14 G 16 1028.5 hPa (-1.0)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 26 mi47 min S 6 G 9.9 49°F 51°F1028 hPa (-0.9)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi47 min 43°F 51°F1027 hPa (-1.5)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 29 mi47 min S 6 G 8 44°F 43°F1027.4 hPa (-1.5)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 32 mi47 min S 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 51°F1028.4 hPa (-0.8)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi47 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 43°F 50°F1027.5 hPa (-1.5)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi47 min 44°F 51°F1027.2 hPa (-1.7)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8 45°F 51°F1027.4 hPa (-1.4)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi47 min 51°F 53°F1028.8 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE9 mi51 minSSE 610.00 miFair41°F34°F77%1028.1 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ17 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair38°F34°F86%1028 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mahon River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mahon River entrance
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Wed -- 12:37 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:15 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:15 AM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:01 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EST     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.61.22.33.64.75.15.14.63.72.61.710.81.123.34.4554.63.82.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Money Island, Nantuxent Creek entrance, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Money Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:55 AM EST     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:09 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:15 PM EST     6.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.92.13.34.55.55.95.44.33.1210.40.81.83.14.35.465.74.73.42.31.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.