Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cynthiana, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:24 PM EDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 11:25AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cynthiana, OH
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location: 39.24, -83.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 220015
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
815 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Ahead of slow-moving cold front, thunderstorm activity will
increase beginning late tonight. After is passes Friday night,
rain chances will diminish as high pressure builds into the
great lakes through Saturday. Cooler and drier weather will be
found as the high moves to the new england region Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Convection well SW of the CWA will continue to push SE and out
of the area of concern this evening. Models do not seem to have
a solid handle on how wx is going to play out overnight but a
reasonable solution can be gleaned, which led to the general paring
down of pops overnight. Two areas of concern will see an
increased pop later towards daybreak. One in the northwest along
the front, the second rolling east over the southern section of
the CWA with mid level S W energy riding east ahead of the upper
trough.

Observations did not seem to support any convection later this
evening as it just wasn't occurring upstream to work in. Will
continue to monitor and likely pare back some more with
subsequent updates, or possibly increase the probability later
overnight if the models align on a similar result.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies this evening will give way to
increasing clouds due to upstream convective debris blow off and
possible lower level clouds developing late. Lows will range
from the upper 60s to near 70.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
On Thursday, aforementioned S WV is expected to stretch and
shear, followed by more digging energy into the southern great
lakes by afternoon and evening. This will push the cold front
very slowly to the southeast. Some low level convergence in
response to some large scale broad ascent, along with the
potential for a weak wave or two of low pressure to develop
along the boundary, will likely bring some showers and
thunderstorms to the area along and ahead of the front. Will
continue to keep pops in the likely category until timing and
coverage become more certain among the cams. Moderate
instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the
south, and with at least some moderate deep layer shear, a few
strong to severe storms may occur. Damaging winds would be the
primary severe weather threat. This is mentioned in the hwo. In
addition, with pwats over 2+ inches, locally heavy rain will be
possible. Clouds and pcpn will keep temperatures down, although
it will continue to be humid. Highs will range from the mid 70s
north to 80 to 85 south.

For Thursday night, the front will continue slowly south. The
far northern sections will begin to dry out while showers storms
move south and become scattered in nature overnight. Lows will
range from near 60 far north to the upper 60s along and south of
the ohio river.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Extended period starts with the region post-frontal, as a cold
front is forecast to be located across southern kentucky. Some
scattered convection will be possible across the southern
portions of the fa. The convection will slowly work south during
the day. The region will experience cooler temperatures with
highs only in the mid to upper 70s. A few spots in northern
kentucky might hit 80. Drier dewpoints will begin to filter in
during the afternoon.

High pressure over the upper great lakes will build into the
region Friday night. It will bring cooler and drier air to the
region for Saturday, with highs between 75 and 80 degrees.

As the high slips off to the east on Sunday, temperatures will
begin to warm. Humidity will be on the increase Sunday, with the
gfs developing some QPF Sunday afternoon. The ECMWF and
canadian keep the region dry and the forecast leans towards the
drier solution.

Southerly flow for next week will bring humid and unstable air.

This will bring the possibility of scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the first half of the work week. Highs on
Monday will be in the lower 80s Monday and will rise to the mid
80s by Wednesday.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Generally clear skies with a few cirrus clouds will see
increasing clouds from the northwest given upstream activity
working in. If this does not affect the region until late, lower
stratus is favored tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
beginning late tonight in the west, a little lull in the day,
then more likely thunderstorm activity in the afternoon with a
cold frontal passage. Generally expectingVFR conditions but
some MVFR vsbys in fog are possible between midnight and
daybreak, then shower and some thunderstorm activity will be
expected, with similar MVFR CIGS where they occur.

Shortwave energy may precede the frontal passage and limit the
amount of stronger storms in the afternoon. There is a lot of
variability in how the models are diagnosing the atmosphere
tonight and tomorrow, leading to a low confidence forecast in
timing, hence the liberal usage of vcsh and vcts.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night with some
lingering thunderstorms. Thunderstorms possible Monday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Franks
near term... Franks
short term... Hickman
long term... Sites
aviation... Franks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH26 mi90 minNW 710.00 miFair83°F66°F59%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILN

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6CalmCalmW3SW4W5S3W8W7W8SW8SW8W7W7W11W10W10W11W10W10NW9W11NW7NW5
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmSE6SE3E3CalmE3E3CalmSE3SE53SE4S3S7S7SW6N10SW7W19
G26
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2 days agoS5S6W6NW9NW3CalmNE4CalmE3CalmSE3S4S5S4S5S6S634S6S3SE3SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.