Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Incline Village, NV

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:57PM Friday March 5, 2021 11:13 AM PST (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:35AMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Incline Village, NV
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location: 39.25, -119.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 051841 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1041 AM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

UPDATE.

. HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MONO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY AM .

We have hoisted a high wind watch for Mono County for late tonight and Saturday morning. Now that hi-resolution simulations have gotten into the NBM, potential wind gusts have increased substantially for the South Lake area and for many spots in the lee of the Sierra, especially for wind-prone spots along Highway 395 in Mono County. The wind flow aloft is mostly south to west which favors 395 north of Mammoth (NW flow aloft would favor Mammoth southward) for the strongest wind potential.

Travelers along Highway 395 late tonight and Saturday morning need to be prepared for sudden bursts of strong winds (60-80 mph possible) at the mouths of canyons in Mono County. While not the main focus, the southern and southwestern parts of Douglas County could also see a few hours with strong wind gusts up to 60 mph as a cold front approaches after midnight. -Snyder

SYNOPSIS.

Mild temperatures are expected today along with breezy winds. A period of strong winds is possible along Highway 395 early Saturday, especially in Mono County. A pattern change to more active weather is likely with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for rain and snow beginning Saturday and extending through much of next week.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. /Issued 258 AM PST Fri Mar 5 2021/

SHORT TERM .

Main changes to the forecast:

* Increased QPF/snow amounts for the Sierra crest for late tonight into early Saturday.

* Increased winds slightly owing to stronger mixing, however still below wind advisory criteria.

Today:

High-level clouds will move over the region today, with warm afternoon temperatures close to 10 degrees above average. Winds will also increase from the south-southwest in response to the incoming short-wave trough, which will bring winter weather conditions to the Sierra early Saturday morning. Wind gusts 20-35 mph are expected for most areas, with some higher gusts (45-50 mph) expected in typical wind-prone areas. Wind gusts as high as 70-90 mph are likely along the Sierra crest. Choppy lake conditions are expected from this afternoon through Saturday.

This evening into Saturday:

Winds increase considerably across the central Sierra and Mono County late tonight as the trough nears the California coast. A brief period of strong 50+mph wind gusts is possible along the US- 395 corridor ahead of the cold front into early Saturday morning.

Snowflakes will start to fall after 7 PM PST tonight across the north-central Sierra. Higher resolution short range model guidance continues to show an intense albeit brief period of heavy snowfall with rates as high as 1-2" per hour for a 1-3 hour period between 3- 6 AM PST Saturday, mainly focused in the Sierra north of Alpine County to the Interstate 80 corridor. Snow will taper off just after sunrise. Snow amounts were increased slightly along the Sierra crest, with 4-6" likely above 7000 ft along the west side of the Lake Tahoe Basin and 2-4" possible at lake level along the west shore. Anticipate hazardous travel conditions over Sierra and northeastern California passes Saturday morning.

With the quick-moving nature and south to north trajectory of this storm the foothills and lower valleys of western Nevada will be shadowed with only some very light rain showers turning to light snow along and behind the cold front early Saturday morning. Stronger wind gusts up to 35-45 mph will be possible over northern Washoe, Lyon, Pershing, and Churchill counties during the late morning and afternoon Saturday. Temperatures will drop 10-15 degrees Saturday compared to this afternoon's highs. -Johnston

LONG TERM . Sunday onward .

While this forecaster certainly enjoyed the "Spring of Deception" the past few days, next week brings winter back into the picture. Sunday looks rather pleasant with above normal temperatures and modest breezes, so enjoy some outdoor time if you can. Ensemble guidance from various model sources still indicates a cold trough digging south in the eastern Pacific, then moving inland over CA/NV by midweek. This will send multiple waves of moisture into the region Monday through Wednesday night, but doesn't have much of any moisture tap to work with based on IVT ensembles. The other concern - - the jet is diving south and enhances across southern CA/NV, which can be indicative of splitting systems and lead to less qpf/snow. There are already signs of this showing up in ensemble qpf guidance with storm totals down by about 30% from the previous forecast.

Snowfall scenarios vary greatly per NBM and ENS/GEFS guidance, meaning a high boom or bust potential. For example -- 25th percentile guidance is only putting down 4-6" of snow in the Sierra for the multi-day time frame, whereas the 75th is 8-16", and the 90th percentile is pushing the two foot mark. Given the cold core of the low moving directly overhead of the Sierra/ western NV midweek, convective banding is a safe bet. It's too early to tell exactly where these heavier bands may set up, but enhanced snowfall rates and/or pellet showers are certainly possible.

High degree of confidence in colder temperatures with highs running a solid 10 degrees below normal Tuesday through Thursday. This means snow levels will be on the low side for this time of the year, likely at valley floors. However, with the high sun angle and limited qpf, it may be hard to get much accumulation in the lower elevations. It would likely be limited to heavier showers (which could bring brief daytime accumulation), or anything falling overnight. Periods of travel impacts should be expected in the Sierra, but the degree travel is impacted in the lower elevations will be driven by the aforementioned criteria.

There will be periods of wind through the week, with Monday likely the strongest. Most ensembles are pointing toward the usual gusts of 25-40 mph, however, the top 10% show potential for gusts in excess of 50 mph in lower valleys.

Otherwise, plenty of variability remains for next weekend into the start of the following week with noisy solutions in the ensembles and clusters. Based on the zonal jet stream flow across the Pacific, additional systems are possible somewhere along the west coast, but the timing and character are TBD. -Dawn

AVIATION .

Widespread VFR conditions today, but winds will be on the uptick. As of time of writing, winds were sustained 30-35 kts at FL100, with winds only strengthening through the day ahead of a cold front. Winds to peak overnight into Saturday morning with a wind shift from SSW to W. Winds will bring turbulence and periods of winds shear.

The cold front will bring a quick band of snow to the Sierra between 10z-14z Saturday, with a few light showers into western Nevada. A couple inches of accumulation on the runway are possible for KTRK/KTVL, with less than an inch for KMMH. Spotty showers in western Nevada are unlikely to yield accumulation on runways. Anticipated widespread mountain obscuration tonight into Saturday morning, with improving conditions through the day. -Dawn

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Saturday for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA . High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning CAZ073.

Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA12 mi18 minWSW 710.00 miClear52°F19°F28%1022.3 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV12 mi23 minE 1010.00 miFair57°F14°F18%1021.7 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV20 mi18 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F12°F16%1018.9 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA24 mi20 minVar 4 G 2210.00 miFair54°F10°F17%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCXP

Wind History from CXP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 12:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:36 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:06 AM PST     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:32 PM PST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:03 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM PST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.11.91.51.10.80.60.71.11.92.73.132.82.41.91.410.60.30.20.20.61.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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