Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Incline Village, NV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:37PM Friday December 6, 2019 2:23 AM PST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Incline Village, NV
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location: 39.25, -119.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 052213 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 213 PM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS.

Areas of fog and low clouds are likely again tonight. A moderate winter storm is expected to produce mountain snow impacts Friday evening through Sunday. This same storm will deliver mainly rain showers and gusty winds to Western Nevada. Quiet weather with valley inversions and seasonal temperatures is forecast for most of next week.

DISCUSSION.

Tonight and Friday .

Primary impact for the short term will be the lurking fog and low clouds for the valley locations. Missing the sun? Head up to the mountains! Some areas, like Reno and Carson finally cleared up a bit early this afternoon.

Short term high resolution simulations handled the fog lifting out well, so we have a bit more confidence in the fog redeveloping tonight through Friday morning for many areas in western Nevada. The low visibility and low ceilings did impact aviation operations at Reno airport, so check out the aviation discussion for more details.

We went ahead and cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory and replaced it with a Freezing Fog Advisory for tonight into Friday morning. If you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning, I would plan for another round of it tonight through Friday morning. Please remember to use caution tonight and tomorrow morning as areas of patchy fog may keep roads slick and icy. Fog likely won't disperse until winds begin to increase early Friday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. -Edan

Friday night through Sunday night .

Our next significant storm system arrives for the weekend with conditions further deteriorating by Friday evening. Overall, not many changes were made to the forecast this afternoon regarding this weekend's storm. We have slightly reduced POPs/QPF for western Nevada Friday night into Saturday morning due to some likely shadowing of precipitation as well as increased snow levels a tad across the region to take into account the warming trend in the model guidance. Having said that, heavy snow in the Sierra and rain in western Nevada is still expected with gusty winds through early Sunday morning. This is why we have upgraded our Sierra zones from Winter Storm Watches to warnings. Here are the specifics of the storm .

* Timing: As of this afternoon, precipitation is likely to move into northeast California by Friday evening with the core of the low pressure just off the coast of the OR/CA border. POPs then increase along the Sierra as moisture spreads into the Tahoe Basin and Mono County late Friday night, early Saturday morning. As the center of the low moves onshore by Saturday morning, southerly winds aloft begin to shift more to the southwest allowing precipitation to spillover into western Nevada more efficiently. Recent model guidance has the bulk of the moisture spilling over into the Great Basin Saturday evening decreasing in intensity around midnight on Sunday as the low's associated cold front moves through from the northeast. Precipitation chances begin to decrease post-frontal with atmospheric conditions improving later during the day on Sunday.

* Precipitation/Snow Levels: Mainly heavy, wet snow for the Sierra above 7000 feet and mostly rain for western Nevada for the duration of this storm. The western Nevada foothills could see a light snow accumulation with a rain/snow mix for the valleys post-frontal by Saturday night into Sunday morning as snow levels lower to ~5000 ft.

* The biggest room for error regarding this storm is for areas in the 5000-7000 ft range where snow levels will vary. The trend in the ensemble as well as the deterministic model guidance has been warmer temperatures, higher snow levels. This translates to a boom or bust scenario with the potential for these areas to see a coating to a few inches of snow (warmer scenario) or up to a foot of accumulation (colder scenario). With the guidance trending warmer, the current forecast has 1-6 inches as of now with low confidence.

* As for forecast snow totals for areas above 7000 ft in the Sierra, higher confidence exists in accumulations in the 1-3 foot range with even greater amounts for elevations above 8500 ft by Sunday afternoon. Travel over any of the Sierra passes will be hazardous from Friday night through Sunday morning, so plan accordingly. Most of the precipitation will likely fall Saturday night into early Sunday morning for western Nevada along the front and placement of the polar jet allowing spillover to occur. Anywhere from 0.10" (Fallon/Lovelock) to up to an inch of rain (Reno-Sparks-Carson City) is forecast with localized flooding possible due to blocked storm drains.

* Winds: Expect Sierra ridge winds to increase during the day on Friday with peak gusts Friday night into Saturday of 50-75 mph forecast. For lower elevations, south-southwest winds of 25-35 mph are possible with higher gusts for wind prone areas including the Hwy 395 corridors in Lassen and Mono counties, portion of US-95 near Walker Lake, and Hwy 395 through Washoe Valley during Saturday. Hazardous lake conditions are likely on Tahoe and Pyramid Lake Friday night through Saturday due to the strong winds. Overall conditions improve on Sunday as the low pressure trough dives southward leaving behind some leftover snow/rain showers across the region. More stable weather is anticipated as a ridge begins to build in from the west by late Sunday night. -LaGuardia

Monday Onward .

* Heavily favoring a less exciting weather week. ECMWF ensemble mean showing high pressure aloft reasserting itself over the region much of next week. A few minor topics to touch on however:

* This pattern in winter normally yields decent valley inversions especially if there is snow cover. Unsure about that last point, but overall we do expect limited ventilation much of next week with light winds. Especially late week when ridge is more persistent and stronger versus a more transient ridge early week. Could see buildups in pollutants in lower valleys including around Reno. Also this will limit temperature warm-ups day to day in valleys while mountains could warm more each day. Fog could return too early in the week with anticipated moisture left behind from weekend storm.

* While ensembles show limited chances for precip next week, the means do show a weak wave passing through Wednesday that could produce some light rain or snow showers for the N Sierra up into NE California. Can't rule out some travel impacts even with a light accumulation. Not seeing any major precip chances even into following week (Dec 15-19) but more ensembles do show light precip into the area then with cooler temps.

-Chris

AVIATION.

The primary concern with the aviation forecast will continue to be the fog/freezing fog and low cloud extent. If you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning, I would plan for another round of it tonight through Friday morning.

* KRNO: Low confidence for FZFG to return tonight-FRI AM * KCXP/KMEV/KRTS: Medium confidence for FZFG to return tonight- FRI AM. * KTRK: High confidence for FZFG through Friday AM * KMMH/KTVL: Low-Medium confidence for FZFG to return FRI AM.

More on KRNO: Multiple diversions, delays, and cancellations have occurred due to the less than 1/4 mile visibility at KRNO this morning. The big question mark is whether or not KRNO will experience some clearing by this afternoon. High resolution simulations are showing the potential for the visibility to decline and FZFG to return later tonight into Friday morning.

Mixing increases ahead of the next storm for Friday. This should lift all ceilings for a time . but then the system begins to impact northeast California and the northern Sierra Friday evening and through the weekend. The storm will bring valley rain and mountain snow along with increased winds and turbulence aloft through Sunday. -Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to noon PST Sunday above 5500 feet in NVZ002.

Freezing Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday NVZ001-003-004.

CA . Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to noon PST Sunday above 5500 feet in CAZ071>073.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA12 mi49 minN 00.25 miFreezing Fog30°F30°F100%1019.6 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV12 mi4.7 hrsno data1.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1021.7 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV20 mi29 minSE 710.00 miOvercast34°F30°F89%1021 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA24 mi31 minS 35.00 miFog/Mist27°F25°F92%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCXP

Wind History from CXP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmE5E6--E6----
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE6SE4CalmE5E4E4E6E6------E4E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--NE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalm44CalmCalm----------CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 01:32 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 AM PST     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM PST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:18 PM PST     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.51.91.91.71.41.10.70.50.30.20.411.72.22.62.62.31.91.51.10.70.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.