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FXUS65 KREV 302137 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 137 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS

A series of low pressure systems will produce periods of rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds, through the weekend. Expect Sierra travel impacts and possible slick valley roadways during Friday morning commute. Much warmer and drier weather returns early next week as high pressure builds overhead.

DISCUSSION

Showers have been winding down near the Tahoe Basin and Truckee Meadows the last couple hours per latest radar observations, but not before we were treated to a brief flurry here at the office!

A series of shortwave trough passages, embedded within the broader northwest flow regime, will promote periods of regional rain and snow showers through the weekend. Besides a few stray showers in the afternoon, the next window for steadier precipitation will accompany a cold frontal passage this evening and overnight. Much of the precipitaion will fall as snow during this timeframe, including down to the valley floors of the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden area.
Accumluations, if any at all, will only amount to a dusting for valley floors, but will be deceivingly enough to create slick roads during the Friday morning commute. Be sure to driving cautiously and allow extra time to get to where you're going!

For the surrounding foothills and midslopes, snowfall totals will struggle to reach an inch. Meanwhile, the Tahoe Basin will likely see 1-3" of new snow while the Sierra crest receives 2-4" through Friday morning. Another impact of note will be increased winds along the Sierra crest with occasional gusts to 50 mph with this initial wave of unsettled weather. Shower activity will wane early Friday morning and allow for a brief lull.

The next period of showers and renewed gusty winds will be late Friday into Saturday, but featuring much less impressive chances and totals compared to its predecessor. Best chances (70-90%) continue to favor far northern Lassen, Washoe, and Pershing counties with a 20-30% chance of snow showers across the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward. Lower valleys of western Nevada have a sub-10% chance of showers during this round. Meanwhile, winds will become quite breezy for western Nevada valleys Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Gusts along the Sierra ridges will may occasionally reach up to 80 mph at times during this same period.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will be the final bout of showers (at least for now) and has very similar chances of precipitation spatially and temporally as the previous round. Snow levels will be much higher over the weekend, confining snowfall to the higher elevations of the Sierra. Totals will continue to be light with only an inch or two of additional snow for the Sierra and a few hundreths for much of western Nevada. Chances of precipitation decline throughout the day Sunday, marking the beginning of a warming and drying trend.

The first half of next week is expected to be much warmer and drier as transient upper ridging overspread the region. Temperatures will steadily warm through Wednesday, becoming 10-15 degrees above average for the middle of the week. Unsettled weather may return by the end of next week, but there remains too much uncertainty among ensembles to instill confidence in the long term forecast.

-Salas

AVIATION

Periods of light rain and snow showers will occasionally lower CIG/VIS at area terminals between 02Z-10Z. Runway accumulations will be light for Sierra terminals with a 40-50% chance of 2" of snow at KTRK/KTVL. There is a chance of light snow at KRNO/KCXP/KMEV but runway accumulation will only be a dusting at best.

FL100 winds will increase to 40-50 kts by Friday night, possibly creating periods of mountain wave turbulence from the Sierra crest into western Nevada.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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