Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Incline Village, NV

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Incline Village, NV

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Area Discussion for - Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 281947 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1208 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Daily thunderstorm potential remains with the Sierra and Western Nevada through the week, with up to 70% chances through Memorial Day. The potential for storms decreases by mid to late week (up to 20% chance), but won't completely disappear. Storms this week will be capable of heavy rain, lightning, gusty, erratic winds and even small hail. Snowmelt concerns are ongoing for the Walker River basin area.

DISCUSSION
General troughiness is projected to remain across the West for much of this week, which translates to unsettled weather conditions and daily potential of thunderstorms and showers. With no ridge in sight, we will be stuck on loop with this weather playlist of cooler conditions, showers and thunderstorms.

As the upper level low digs southward along the CA coast, an area of deformation will migrate across the Sierra and western Nevada. Upper level divergence paired with low and mid level moisture, and daytime surface heating will result in another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms. Marginally 'wetter' conditions near the surface may help to limit the severe wind threat today, with a greater focus on heavy rainfall, lightning, and hail. SPC mesoanalysis page showing CAPE values along and north of I80 between 500-1000 J/kg and sfc-6km shear vector between 30 to 40 kts for areas along and south of Interstate 80.

For Memorial Day, plan on another day of showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chances) but storm motion will be much slower than today with an increased risk of heavy rainfall for the Sierra and western Nevada. A Flood Watch is in effect for Monday afternoon and evening to account for the heightened threat of flooding in along the eastern Sierra to the north of Tioga Pass and extending into far western NV including the Reno-Carson City area where some urban and small stream flooding will be possible as well. We will have to keep a particular eye on burn scars. This may be a several day event depending on the track of the upper low.
Steering flow is projected to remain weak and moisture sufficient for slow and heavy rain producing cells.

Thunderstorm coverage may decrease later this week, but overall plan on showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By Friday and Saturday, the storms may become more isolated, primarily across the eastern Sierra, with the potential for thunderstorm coverage to increase again as we head into the first full week of June.

-Edan

AVIATION

* Areas of showers and thunderstorms will remain present across the region this afternoon with a 50-60% chance for storms impacting KTRK/KTVL as well as KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. Lower potential for storms will exist farther south across KMMH (20-30% chance).
Expect showers and storms to begin to dissipate after 03z this evening.

* Storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall with terrain obscuration, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 45 kts, abundant lightning, and small hail.

* An active pattern of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming week with a 60-70% chance expected on Memorial Day into Tuesday before chances taper down a bit after midweek. -Fuentes

HYDROLOGY

UPDATE: Flood Watch in effect for Monday afternoon and evening.
Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce areas of heavy rainfall.
High threat areas include: much of the Sierra, especially burn scars, steep canyons, and along rivers and creeks.

* WALKER: Prolonged minor to moderate flooding will continue along the East Fork and main-stem of the Walker River. The Walker River in the Mason Valley continues to trend slightly downward.
Flows highly dependent upon on reservoir management adjustments which are intended to maintain storage and to mitigate future (and potentially higher) peaks.

* CARSON: Some minor impacts may persist along the East and West Forks of the Carson, but trends continue to be more favorable and lower than they were last week.

* MONO COUNTY: Keep a close eye on Mono county small streams which have been running very high. Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms, especially on Memorial Day and Tuesday, will have the greatest chance to impact these smaller basins.

* THUNDERSTORMS: Unsettled storm pattern continues Memorial Day (and beyond). With saturated soils and elevated streamflows, additional rain will result in rapid rises and enhanced flooding potential. Slow-moving thunderstorms on Memorial Day will enhance the flood threat. These storms will be most impactful along smaller creeks and streams, but could also exacerbate problems along mainstem rivers which are already flooding or are very close to flood impact levels. Note: River forecasts are incapable of incorporating these short duration high intensity rain events.

-Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ002-003-005.

CA...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening CAZ070>073.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento %234, Sacramento River, California

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