Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dundalk, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:11PM Saturday January 18, 2020 9:44 AM EST (14:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 639 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Snow likely this morning, then rain and sleet this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or drizzle.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 639 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move across the southern great lakes today and into new england tonight. The low will exit across northern new england Sunday, followed by another area of arctic high pressure for early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dundalk, MD
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location: 39.25, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 180900 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move across the southern Great Lakes today and into New England tonight. The low will exit across northern New England Sunday, followed by another area of Arctic high pressure for much of next week. Low pressure may approach toward the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A band of snow (some which may be moderately heavy based on radar presentation and upstream obs) extended from a point on the Lake Erie shore about halfway between Cleveland Ohio and Erir Pennsylvania, southeastward to near Farmville Virginia (locally from near Cumberland Maryland to Charlottesville Virginia). Strong upward motion in the dendritic growth zone due to robust warm and moist advection in the 900-700 hPa layer is overcoming low-level dry air to result in this snow band.

The band will move eastward through daybreak, likely reaching the DC metro right around daybreak and the Baltimore metro about an hour or two later. The snow is only expected to last an hour or two in any one location, but given the cold ground temperatures, snow will stick to all surfaces.

After this initial burst (which is expected to lay down a coating to an inch of snow, highest over N MD/E WV/NW VA), precipitation takes on a bit more intermittent stance through late morning/midday, then increases again this afternoon as the surface low and its attendant upper trough make their closest approach to the region. The strong warm/moist advection above the surface will result in a strengthening warm nose aloft, so any precipitation after the initial round of snow this morning should fall as a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain. With the high to the north retreating off the New England coast, cold air will begin to erods on southerly winds even to the surface, though areas north and west of I-95 will be northwest of the surface ridge axis, implying more stubborn low-level cold in an area of baroclinic enhancement/vertical motion/dynamic and wet bulb cooling. Near and southeast of I-95/closer to the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River should warm above freezing at the surface as precipitation changes to rain, so freezing rain is not currently expected in a widespread sense southeast of the current advisory area.

Precipitation should change to all rain before ending for all except far northern Maryland and parts of the eastern West Virginia panhandle. Precip winds down around sunset as the low and upper trough move past, but the cold/dry push doesn't come until midnight, so a few rain, showers or drizzle will remain possible this evening. After midnight, a strong westerly pressure surge moves across. Ridgetops along the Allegheny Front may have winds kept slightly lower due to saturation from upslope and unfavorable time of day, but westerly downslope to lead to occasional strong wind gusts approaching 45 or even 50 MPH in the lee of the Allegheny Front, and also over the Blue Ridge. Subsequent shifts will re-evaluate this wind potential. Meanwhile, a few snow showers will linger over the Allegheny Front, but with more westerly flow and shallow inversion heights below the DGZ, amounts should remain sub-advisory (less than 3 inches in 12 hours).

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday into Monday leading to dry, breezy and cold conditions. Temperatures will be below normal during this time, with wind chills persistently in the teens and 20s even during the day (below 0 for the higher elevations, especially at night).

Some residual moisture coupled with a few upper level atmostpheric pertubations may result in spotty snow showers over the Allegheny Front, but accumulations look relatively insignificant at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will be exiting while surface high pressure builds eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley. There could be lingering upslope flurries, but otherwise the day will just be marked by continued below normal temperatures and gusty northwest winds (perhaps a little lighter than Monday).

Nearly vertically stacked ridging will move overhead Wednesday and edge east Thursday, so dry weather can be expected. Daytime temperatures will begin moderating back above normal, although overnight lows will remain chilly (teens/20s) due to favorable radiational cooling.

A low pressure system will be approaching the Mississippi Valley on Friday, although current consensus keeps the daytime hours dry. Temperatures will likely warm a bit further as return flow develops behind the departing high. There are non-zero chances of wintry precipitation if this system arrives Friday night, although uncertainty is high at this time, especially as the overall pattern suggests a return to mild conditions.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Brief IFR in snow is likely at MRB/IAD/BWI/MTN, possibly DCA this morning (least likely at CHO). Timing 11-14Z or so from west to east. Prevailing MVFR today, but lower CIGs possible near MRB closer to best saturation. Drizzly conditions or fog possible this evening, perhaps briefly lower CIGs to near IFR as well. S winds 10G20 kts become gusty W/NW after midnight, with gusts 25+ kts possible through Monday.

Gusty NW winds AOA 20 kt will remain possible Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure arrives.

MARINE. Southerly channeling of air colder than water temps should result in SCA gusts ~25 kts this afternoon and evening, persisting through the night over the more open waters. Winds flip to NW behind departing low pressure Sunday into Monday with SCA level gusts likely.

Small Craft Advisories may continue for portions of the waters on Tuesday as gusty northwest winds continue. Winds should diminish Tuesday night and remain light through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Light winds have allowed water to return up this Bay early this morning. Anomalies will continue to increase through tonight due to developing southerly winds. Most guidance indicates water levels will remain well below flood stage, although will point out the SFAS ensemble indicates there is an outside shot at minor flooding tonight. NW flow resumes Sunday and allows anomalies to drop thereafter.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ501- 502. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-011-503>508. VA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ025-026-029-036>040-050-051-507-508. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ027. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ028-030-031-052-053-501>506. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ050- 051-055-501>504. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ052-053-505-506. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>533-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . ADS AVIATION . ADS/DHOF MARINE . ADS/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 4 mi80 min S 6 G 11 29°F 1033.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi56 min S 8.9 G 9.9 29°F 1034.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 6 mi62 min SW 5.1 G 7 29°F 43°F1033.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi62 min SE 6 G 9.9 27°F 41°F1034.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi62 min 31°F 1033.9 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi62 min 30°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi44 min S 13 G 14 29°F 42°F1035.3 hPa (-2.2)21°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi134 min S 7 1035 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi56 min SSE 8 G 8.9 28°F 45°F1034.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 40 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 26°F 41°F1035.3 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD7 mi50 minSE 810.00 miOvercast32°F19°F60%1034.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi50 minno data mi30°F12°F47%1034.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi50 minS 610.00 miOvercast29°F12°F49%1033.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi50 minS 710.00 miOvercast29°F19°F66%1034.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD19 mi56 minS 510.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1034.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi59 minS 810.00 miOvercast30°F14°F51%1034.5 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD22 mi1.8 hrsS 310.00 miOvercast25°F13°F60%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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W12NW6NW8NW5--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE6SE8
1 day agoW20
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2 days agoCalmSE4SE5SE6SE5S5--CalmCalmSE4S4SE5S8SE8SE10S7SE6SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Maryland
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Fort Carroll
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     0.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:19 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.60.9110.90.70.50.30.1-0-00.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:53 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.400.50.811.10.90.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.