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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 256 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 6 seconds...and nw 6 ft at 13 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 10 ft at 14 seconds...and nw 3 ft at 20 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves S 3 ft at 6 seconds...and W 12 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 21 seconds.

PZZ400 256 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..North-northwesterlies will strengthen behind the front this evening, potentially bringing some steep seas. Winds will diminish slightly Friday morning and turn southerly, but seas will remain elevated as a series of larger mid- to long- period nw swells fill in and continue into early next week. A stronger swell builds in midweek.

FXUS66 KEKA 302344 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 344 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Active weather pattern will yield periods of light to moderate rain through the weekend, primarily north of Cape Mendocino.
A period of heavy rain will be possible for Del Norte County this weekend. Additional frontal systems and periods of rain are forecast for early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION
Shallow convection has been moving onshore in the wake of a cold front. Instability has been sufficient for cells to briefly hit 45-55dBZ, dropping tiny hail particles mixed with rain, lasting only a minute or less. Visible satellite imagery showed additional rope clouds and innocuous looking cumulus convection offshore. A trough line will approach this evening and should result in another uptick in showers for the North Coast region. The colder airmass and subsidence will result in weakening of these showers before moving onto land. Also, snow levels above 3000 feet with limited precipitation will preclude a winter weather advisory. An inch or two will certainly be possible over the highest peaks, above 3500 ft. Otherwise, showers activity has been far and few between and much less frequent for the Mendocino, Lake and eastern Trinity Counties. Activity should diminish later tonight as mid-level shortwave ridging and light offshore surface flow develops.

Another frontal system will quickly approach from the NW on Friday and generate more light to moderate rain amounts for mostly the northern portion of the forecast area (Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties). Mendocino, Lake and eastern Trinity will once again be in a rain shadow. No measurable rain is forecast for southern Mendocino, southern Lake and eastern Trinity counties.
Probability for 1" of snow in 6 hours from the National Blend of Models (NBM) is less than 20% for South Fork Mountain Summit and Scott Mountain Pass. Thus, any winter weather products appear unwarranted at this time. Snow levels will initially start out around 3000-3500 feet early Friday, but then ramp up through the day to 5000 feet or more. Levels fluctuate from 4500-5500 feet Friday before a warm frontal wave and rain arrives by Saturday mornings. With high snow levels rising to 6000 feet or more this weekend, concerns for snow impacts diminishes markedly.

The primary concern going into this weekend will be the potential for heavy rain rates (more than 0.30in/hr) in Del Norte and far northern Humboldt Counties as a plume of high precipitable water (over 200% of normal) or an atmospheric river clips Del Norte County. Latest WPC and NBM QPF guidance has trended down with the 6 hourly amounts as mid level flow amplifies offshore and the surface frontal boundary slows. Arrival time of the front and heaviest rainfall may take til Sunday or Sunday night. Current indications are for the highest amounts of rain to occur Saturday evening into Sunday morning. NBM probabilities for an inch or more of rain in 24 hours remain around 65-75% for Del Norte and far northern Humboldt Counties even into Sunday. Flooding concerns remain low at the moment due to dry antecedent conditions (no or minimal rain for the last 7 days) and the low probabilities for deep convection with slow storm motions. That could change if high resolution model guidance comes in hotter with heavy heavy rain rates.

Uncertainty increases early next week with deterministic guidance and ensemble means indicating a ridge building and drier conditions developing. PWATs remain above normal and light misty rain or drizzle may still occur. Probabilities for greater amounts of rain increase toward mid week with eventual frontal passage.

AVIATION
Starting today, a series of weather systems will affect area airports/airfields and local aviation through the next couple of days. Today's frontal system kept Del Norte and Humboldt's air terminal mostly in VFR. However, MVFR was reported many times as the Cold front approached the coast...and then continued to slide southward. There were brief periods of IFR visibilities as heavy showers passed over the coastal terminals. Showers were basically weaker as they moved into interior interior zones. More precipitation with reduced visibilities and ceilings expected to impact coastal locations Friday morning. /TA

MARINE
West-northwesterlies will ramp up tonight behind the front before calming slightly tomorrow. Winds will ramp up again this weekend, especially in the northern waters, with an approaching system. Gale force gusts are possible in the northern outer waters later in the weekend. Waves will increase tomorrow as the first of a series of larger mid- to long-period NW swells fills in, and will will continually reinforce through the weekend. Seas will remain at or above 10 ft, with greater heights in the northern waters of around 13 ft. Waves will remain elevated into early next week. A hurricane force low in the Pacific will bring in an even larger swell midweek, with wave heights of 15 to 20 ft possible.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for PZZ455-470- 475.

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Albion
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Thu -- 02:02 AM PST     4.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM PST     3.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 AM PST     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:16 PM PST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albion, California, Tide feet

Point Cabrillo
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Thu -- 02:20 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 AM PST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:11 AM PST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:42 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:48 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 PM PST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:39 PM PST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Cabrillo, California Current, knots

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