Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little River, CA

DISCUSSION
Temperatures bottomed out in the lower to mid 30's in coastal areas and adjacent river valley early this morning.
Low dewpoints tonight under an unseasonably dry air mass will allow temperatures to plummet this evening and overnight where winds remain light or calm. Trended low temperatures up some per the NBM and MOS guidance, however there may be mixed results.
Some sites may decrease a few degrees with less valley fog while others increase due to warmer air aloft mixing down. Mostly thin high cirrus clouds may also factor in late tonight. A cold weather advisory has been issued with apparent temperatures expected in the upper 20's. It will not take very much wind for it to feel colder than 30F.

Otherwise, a wind advisory remains in effect for Lake County where ridge level gusts up to 50 mph are expected. Not confident about impacts for these remote ridge tops. Most population centers and travel corridors have been sufficiently windy with gusts from 20 to 35 mph to warrant continuation of the advisory.
There was one report from a CWOP at Lake level with a max gust report of 54 mph early in this morning.

Upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific ejects a couple of shortwave ridges on its eastern periphery for early to mid week to ensure dry weather through Thursday. The first shortwave ridge axis arrives tonight, and the second arrives Wednesday night. A consistently forecast trough is still forecast from ensembles to slide into the eastern periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge and will have at least some influence on our weather from Friday through Sunday night, although the mean trough axis will remain southeast of the CWA Therefore any precipitation amounts for Friday morning through Sunday night will be light. We will be on the lookout for gusty winds Friday and Saturday, focused on the coast for Friday, and farther into the interior for Saturday.
ECMWF EFI is already signaling the potential for strong north winds on Friday behind cold frontal passages, followed by robust NE or N winds over the weekend. Ensemble means are on the order of 25-30 mph gusts for the coastal land areas, with perhaps higher gusts for the headlands. Now the ridges and venturi effect sites will have stronger gusts to 50 mph or more based on the NBM 75-90th percentiles, especially in the King Range and eventually over the ridges and channeled terrain of Lake County.

Synoptic pattern confidence is high as ensembles continue to have good agreement and consistency with the Omega Block High dominating our weather through Thursday before the eastern periphery gives way to a cold core trough sliding in from the eastern side with increasing magnitude. Therefore confidence is high for a dry forecast heading into Thursday. With the aforementioned trough comes a bit of precipitation potential. Latest WPC guidance has very little to only a few hundredths over the higher terrain.
Even the deterministic and ensemble means are drier. It is too early to remove all precip chances as a few cluster means indicate a low end chance the cold core possibly digging offshore before swinging inland. This over-water trajectory could definitely be better for precip production vs what most cluster means indicate which is a dry overland trajectory. Right now the main impacts from the cold surge will be strong and blustery northerly and northeasterly winds and cold temperatueres. NAEFS indicate a 1 day every 2-5 years for 850mb temperatures of -2C to -4C, while the ECMMWF EFI is showing pockts of -0.5 to -0.7 with no shift of tails, There is potential for an unseasonably cold air outbreak filtering into NW Cal, however right now the signal is not decisive from any of these tools. Key message right now is cold and blustery. DB

AVIATION
VFR and light winds continue into Tuesday. Some patchy valley fog is possible early Tuesday morning, although it is unclear if this will affect any terminals, and should any form it will mix out by late morning.

MARINE
Winds will continue to diminish this afternoon and evening. Tonight the wind turn southerly around 5 to 10 kt and this continues through Tuesday. Seas remain calm, with buoys primarily picking up a swell of 7 ft at 16 seconds moving through the waters.
The buoys are showing some set behavior in these waves. This will create a risk for intermittent larger waves breaking in the shallow areas or shoals.

Wednesday there is decent model agreement that the northerly winds will start to increase again, reaching around 15 to 20 kt by the afternoon in the outer waters. Late Wednesday night and Thursday these winds diminish some, although exactly how much is uncertain.
Another long period wave is expected to move through on Thursday, although the current models only show it around 3 to 6 feet Thursday night.

A more significant wind event is forecast Friday and Saturday. The global ensemble means show a 40 to 60 percent probability of sustained gale force winds. If this trend continues, the forecast will likely need to be increased. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ103-104-109-112-113-115.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ470-475.