Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 733 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 928 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - A near stationary frontal boundary across the treasure coast waters will gradually lift northward on Friday. Another cold front approaches the waters on Sunday.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KPHI 170137 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 937 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Middle Atlantic coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend.
Another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front arrives later Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 9:30PM...Forecast remains largely on track; no major changes have been made at this time.

As we go into tonight, both the surface low and its associated upper level circulation will drift farther out to sea allowing for some weak ridging to start to build in. While this could initially result in some clearing by later this evening, it's likely that this would be short lived as low stratus and even some fog likely redevelops overnight. Any drizzle/light rain, however should be coming to an end through this evening. Expect lows tonight once again mainly in the 50s.

Friday is still shaping up to be a dry day across the area in between systems as weak surface ridging continues to build in.
However winds will remain onshore out of the east and this will tend to keep the low stratus in place. And while there may be some breaks or partial clearing briefly around midday or early afternoon, even if it occurs it would be short lived as clouds increase again by late day ahead of the next system. It should be a little warmer than today with most areas seeing low 70s for highs. Near the coast and over the southern Poconos it will be cooler though with temperatures in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Not the greatest of weather weekends upcoming, but Sunday could end up being not too bad. A slow moving low and front approach from the Tenn./Ohio valley areas Saturday but then it drifts back south/east Sunday. The northern parts of the region will probably do the best with (only) a chance for showers Sat and perhaps dry all of Sunday. Delmarva and south NJ will likely have showers Sat, but will trend drier Sunday with perhaps sunshine late Sunday. Either way, Saturday will have cloudy skies most areas and Sunday will be cloudy south and partly (or mostly) sunny north/west. High temperatures will be cool Saturday (60s) but will climb back into the 70s by Sunday except for Delmarva and south NJ where highs mostly 60s will be found. The warmest mercury readings both Sat and Sunday will be across the North areas where more sunshine is expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the poor weather over the weekend, next week is shaping up to feature some drier conditions with more seasonable temperatures. The upper low across the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday slowly spins offshore while upper ridging takes place across the Middle Atlantic.
Fair weather Mon thru Wed with high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 70s with low 70s for the far NW areas and close to the shore. Lows mostly in the 50s with some mid/upper 40s for the Pine Barrens and southern Poconos.

The next opportunity for showers will arrive Wed night/Thu as an upper short wave and surface cold front advance across the Great Lakes and then into our region. The upper flow will become more progressive by then, so the systems will not sit and spin like they are this week. We'll carry chance pops for Wed night/Thu at this stage. Temperatures will go a little above normal with more upper 70s across the area.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...Low stratus and/or mist/fog expected again overnight with widespread low end MVFR to even IFR cigs (IFR likely at MIV and ACY), also the potential for some reduced visibilities. If more clearing occurs this evening, this could make fog (IFR visbys) more of a concern but right now it's still looking like more of a low stratus night. For this reason forecast confidence for tonight is relatively low. Winds northeast tonight 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...MVFR to start the day with some improvement heading into the afternoon to high end MVFR or low VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming more easterly in the afternoon and then eventually more ESE by late day.

Outlook...

Fri night/Sat ... Cloudy with showers at times. VFR, except MVFR possible with showers.

Sunday... VFR probable. MVFR early for KACY/KMIV/KILG.

Mon/Tue... Mostly VFR.

MARINE
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue into Friday, mainly due to seas. It should stay sub SCA on the Delaware Bay through this time. Seas will look to fall below 5 feet Friday afternoon; SCA may be ended early for the more southern zones (e.g., ANZ454/ANZ455)
due to faster falling seas.

Outlook...

Conditions will remain below SCA this weekend and into next week. Having said that, a few SCA gusts are possible Sunday morning but confidence in it is low and any effects should be spotty and limited. Showers are expected Sat/Sat night. On Sunday, early showers will diminish from north to south. Fair weather is expected Monday and into Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

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Worton Creek entrance
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Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:36 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Worton Creek entrance, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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