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FXUS65 KREV 071130 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 330 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS

A second system swings through the region today, bringing another round of gusty winds and snow to the Sierra, with renewed travel and recreation impacts through this evening. High pressure builds back into the region on Saturday, with warmer and drier conditions through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
through Friday

Our first system has exited the region overnight, with just some stringy bands of snow showers draping over the central and northern Sierra early this morning. Otherwise, we will see an overall lull in precipitation through late morning between systems. The second wave accompanied by another band of precipitation will arrive late morning, spreading into the northern and central Sierra through the afternoon. This wave will be much less dynamic in comparison to the system that passed through yesterday, so much lighter precipitation is expected. Snow levels will be much lower this round, with snow levels between 5000-5500 feet. As such, we could see a dusting of snow down to foothill locations around the Reno-Carson-Minden areas.
However, heaviest snowfall is expected in the northern and central Sierra, with an additional 4-10 inches possible along the crest.
Expect travel impacts to continue in and around the Sierra through this afternoon, and be sure to check with Caltrans and NDOT for up- to-date road information before you head out.

We will also see continued gusty west-southwest winds this afternoon with this second system, though much lighter compared to those observed yesterday. Expect gusts to 70-80 mph this afternoon for Sierra ridges, and gusts to 20-30 mph for valley locations.

As this system exits the region tonight, expect precipitation to quickly taper off this evening with skies clearing overnight.
Clearing skies and northerly flow prevailing behind the exiting system will lead to quite frigid temperatures for Friday morning.
Lows are expected to bottom out in the low 20s for western Nevada valleys, and single digits to teens for Sierra locations. High temperatures won't offer too much relief, with western Nevada valleys struggling to break into the 40s, and Sierra communities in the mid-to-high 30s. Whitlam

LONG TERM
Saturday onward

Dry weather with a warming trend prevails through the weekend as upper-level ridging overtakes the western US, with temperatures warming around 10 degrees above average by Sunday. A few weak upper- level disturbances are expected to flatten the ridge early next week, bringing not much more than some increased cloud cover,increased west-northwest winds, and temperatures moderating closer to seasonal averages from Monday onward. The storm track looks too far north to bring any notable precipitation, though some light showers near the Oregon border can't be ruled out.

Upper-level ridging reappears mid-to-late week, with gradual warming and drier conditions returning. Long term guidance continues to suggest a possible shift in the storm track further south into the week 2 period, which could bring a return to active weather by next weekend. Whitlam

AVIATION

The second shortwave sweeps through the Sierra and western Nevada today, bringing renewed potential for precipitation mainly this afternoon and into this evening. While this second wave isn't as potent as yesterday, there will still be strong ridge winds, periods of mountain obscuration, LLWS and turbulence, and periods of snow showers.

SNOW: While there may be a few snow showers even at western NV terminals through the evening today, any accumulation will be unlikely. For the Sierra, intermittent light snow showers are ongoing this morning, but more consistent snow bands will arrive around 20z today and continue through 3z Friday. Best potential for accumulating snow will be at KTRK-KTVL, while KMMH only has a 10% chance at seeing a lone shower today. KTRK has a 50% chance of seeing an additional 2 inches of snow while KTVL has a 20% chance.
Snow character will be much lighter and drier today with the colder temperatures in place from the previous storm.

WINDS: Ridge winds gusts remain strong this morning with sites reporting gusts 50 to 80 mph. The potential for LLWS and mountain wave turbulence will remain with us through 3z Friday before FL100 winds begin to decrease. Wind direction will also shift with the next shortwave with westerly winds turning northwesterly around 6z Friday.

Friday: Northwesterly upper level flow persists with clearing skies and VFR conditions.

-Edan

AVALANCHE

Heavy, wet snow fell yesterday across the central and northern Sierra, with measurable snowfall down to at least 6000 feet per web cameras around the region. Another round of snowfall is expected this afternoon as a band accompanies another, weaker frontal passage today. Snow levels will be lower this round, between 5000-5000 feet.

* Snow Water Equivalent (SWE): 50% chance for SWE to exceed 1" over the next 24 hrs on the Sierra crest from US-50 northward.

* Snowfall Rates: 30-40% chance to exceed 1" per hour along the crest north of I-80 between 12 PM-4 PM Thursday.

* Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Lighter snow characteristics today, between 14-16 to 1.

* Winds: Gusty west-southwest winds continue today, generally up to 70-80 mph along Sierra ridges this afternoon. Lighter winds below ridge level, between 30-50 mph.

Whitlam

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ071-072.

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