Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Soda Springs, CA

DISCUSSION

The closed-low that brought rain, snow and a few thunderstorms to our area yesterday is currently over northeastern NV and northwestern UT. There are still a few stray light showers in eastern Churchill and Pershing counties slowly moving away into Lander county as the low continues its northeastward trajectory.

The advection of colder air from the north ahead of the arrival of the next upper ridge later today will lead to a chilly morning.
There is a good chance for many places to observe temperatures below 32F degrees including the Sierra, NE CA, northern Washoe south towards the valleys north of Reno, the Carson Valley and southern Lyon county. However, temperatures quickly warm up later today. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the low-mid 60s for western NV and NE CA, while temperatures will be in the 50s for the Sierra and other higher elevation areas across the region.
Temperatures further increase on Tuesday into the low 70s for portions of western NV and NE CA valleys, and into the 50-mid 60s for the Sierra and NE CA mountains.

By Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will swing down along the edge of the ridge towards us. This system brings slightly cooler temperatures (barely noticeable), and slight chances for showers and thunderstorms (10-25%). The chances for thunder is 15-20% mainly for the Sierra and areas south of US-50 during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Up to 25% chance for thunder on a similar area, just more confined to the south and west.
Otherwise, no significant impacts are expected with this system.
Nonetheless, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week.

This weekend a broad upper level trough expands and descends from the PacNW into the Great Basin. There is good agreement this far out between both deterministic and ensembles of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC.
So, the trend for this weekend looks colder and wetter again.
Temperatures are expected to take a drop by Saturday once the cold front pushes through. There is potential for snow levels to drop down close to valley floors by Saturday night, but we should wait and see how this system develops over the next few days. For now, expect valley rain and mountain snow. At least the latest runs are indicating light accumulation of either, but then again, will see how the trend goes. Anyway, stay tuned for what is looking likely to be another round of wintry conditions this weekend.

-HC

AVIATION

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through 12Z Tuesday. However, MVFR conditions due to low clouds persist in the Tahoe Basin through 12-15Z Monday. KTRK has potential for FZFG between 8Z to 15Z this morning. Winds will be generally light and VRB during the overnight and early AM hours. Winds become northerly with speeds between 5-10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts during the mid-afternoon.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.