Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Soda Springs, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 10:28 AM PDT (17:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 11:12PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Soda Springs, CA
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location: 39.31, -120.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 261014 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 314 AM PDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A ridge of high pressure will bring summer-like heat today through Friday with record highs possible. While parts of Mineral and Mono counties may receive a few thunderstorms this afternoon, the best thunderstorm chances arrive Friday and Saturday as low pressure reaches the west coast. This low will bring breezy and cooler conditions for the weekend and possible showers early next week.

SHORT TERM.

The only notable change in the short term forecast period was removal of all thunderstorm chances on Thursday.

Otherwise, the next three days (with Thursday being the overall warmest day) will feature summer-like heat with record highs possible, especially today with more reachable existing records of 91 and 79 at Reno and South Lake Tahoe, respectively. Temperatures each day will surpass 90 degrees in most lower elevations, with 80s for most Sierra valleys as a strong ridge of high pressure builds from southern CA-NV to much of the Great Basin by Thursday. Afternoon-early evening zephyr breezes are expected to reach typical levels (peak gusts 25-30 mph) today and Thursday, while looking a bit more modest Wednesday.

As for thunderstorm chances in the next three days, only today includes any mention of thunder. The model guidance/short range ensembles have been consistent with a small zone of enhanced instability in southern Mono-Mineral counties, and the latest high resolution data also supports some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in these areas. Farther north, some afternoon cumulus may produce a couple of brief showers in the Lassen/northern Washoe convergence zone late this afternoon but instability looks too weak for thunder.

For Wednesday-Thursday, warming temperatures aloft (in addition to the surface) will cap cumulus growth and limit thunderstorm potential due to the absence of any significant forcing. While the air mass shows some low-mid level drying on Wednesday behind a weak shortwave passage across the northern Rockies, a surge of even drier air pushes into eastern CA-western NV to further cut down on instability for Thursday. Flat cumulus is most likely to develop each afternoon mainly in the convergence zones of northern Lassen/Washoe and southern Mineral-Mono counties, with minimal cloud cover elsewhere. MJD

LONG TERM. Friday through Monday .

We opted not to make many changes in the extended part of the forecast during this cycle as there are some discrepancies starting to creep into the model solutions Namely. the deterministic GFS has broken from many of the GEFS ensemble members by late in the weekend and early next week. It has become far more progressive while the GEFS ensemble members and the ECMWF model have stayed less progressive and wetter as we move into next week.

The upper low lifting north along the California coast Friday and Saturday still looks on track. It may be just a little bit slower . but that does not change the forecast substantially. The best forcing for showers and thunderstorms develops late Friday into Friday night and Saturday over the far northern Sierra . northeast California and northwest Nevada. Low- to mid- level shear could also lead to better organized and longer lived storms Friday night. Continued forcing aloft should allow storms to carry over into the nighttime hours and could affect areas of western Nevada along the Sierra Front Friday night and early Saturday morning. Friday should be the last unseasonably warm day with highs in the 90s for the lower valleys and 80s in the Sierra valleys.

Once the main forcing lifts to the north we should see less chance for convection as we move into late Saturday and Sunday owing to increased drier southwest flow aloft. We will also see cooler temperatures both Saturday and Sunday . closer to normal for late May . mid-upper 70s in the lower valleys and 60s in the Sierra valleys.

The biggest disagreements between the model solutions develop Monday. And it is really just the GFS that has become an outlier. It produces a progressive trough that moves through the region and shifts the focus of precipitation into central and eastern Nevada by early Tuesday Meanwhile. the GEFS ensembles and the ECMWF hold onto a slower moving trough with hints of a closed low developing in the base of the trough. This was the solution yesterday and we will hold onto it for now. This could mean a really good chance for showers off and on through Monday . or even an broad shield of rain developing somewhere in the forecast area. This would also mean lower temperatures than we currently have in the forecast. Because there are some disagreements in model solutions . our confidence in the forecast for early next week is rather low at this point. We will need to see how the pattern evolves over the the next few days to get a better idea of the forecast for early next week.

AVIATION.

Flat ridging aloft will keep much of the area VFR today with surface winds in the 10-15 kt range by late afternoon and a few gusts as high as 25 kt. The only area with any chance at convection today will be along and just east of the Sierra from roughly Bridgeport south. There is about a 15% chance of seeing a thunderstorm within 5 miles of KMMH.

VFR conditions continue through Thursday and the ridge amplifies. Convective chances are less than 15% for both Wednesday and Thursday. We are likely to see the development of more zephyr-like winds for western Nevada by Thursday with a few gusts closer to 30 kt.

Better chances for convection develop Friday as an upper level low pressure begins to lift north along the California coast. The best chances for thunderstorms in our area will be from the Lake Tahoe basin north into northeast California and northwest Nevada with gusty winds . small hail . low level turbulence and occasional mountain obscurations possible.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . None. CA . None.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA10 mi39 minN 010.00 miClear64°F48°F56%1023 hPa
Emigrant Gap, Blue Canyon Nyack Airport, CA20 mi37 minWSW 310.00 miFair72°F42°F34%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRK

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E4S3NW7SW5--W13
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W11W8W8SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN5S5N6NW4N7
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2 days agoN5NE5N5SW4N7--NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Tue -- 05:14 AM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM PDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM PDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.61.310.911.72.63.13.12.82.31.81.20.70.3-0-0.2-0.20.10.81.52

Tide / Current Tables for Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California
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Clarksburg #4
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM PDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:07 PM PDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM PDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.51.210.91.21.92.83.132.72.21.610.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.411.622.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.