Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 182117 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 217 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will drop into the region and bring cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes and a 10-20% chance of showers through the upcoming week. Right now, it looks like temperatures will gradually warm again over the Memorial Day weekend with storm chances remaining low.

DISCUSSION

Late Afternoon/Tonight:

There remains a 20-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near and south of Bridgeport and Hawthorne through early evening with gusty outflows 30-40 mph, brief heavy rain, lightning and small hail. Increasing westerly flow and drying as evident in ridgetop winds and WV imagery will keep things stable for the rest of the Sierra and western NV through this evening. Breezy west winds with gusts 25-35 mph will gradually slow this evening. There will be a brief 2-3 hour window early this evening (5-8pm) when winds could approach 30 mph on Pyramid Lake. So locally choppy conditions will develop late afternoon through sundown.

Sunday-Monday:

Generally dry and more stable all areas although cannot completely rule out a few showers across west central NV as a front works southward Sunday afternoon per the HRRR/NAM. Another breezy day is in store with W-NW winds, gusts 25-35 mph - strongest south of I-80. Winds will shift northerly Sunday night-Monday. Temperatures will cool each day with Monday the coolest day when afternoon temperatures may struggle to reach 60 degrees in Sierra valleys and 70 degrees for lower western NV valleys.

Tuesday-Memorial Day Weekend:

A reinforcing front is expected midweek (Wed-Thu) which will keep temperatures from changing significantly through Saturday.
Temperatures will oscillate around seasonal averages with daytime breezes persisting. Shower chances remain low (less than 20%) as the best moisture/instability remain over the eastern Great Basin.
If something pops, the most favorable location would be along the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. But it will be dry for most areas.
There are signs of a more zonal/lighter flow with temperatures warming late in the Memorial Day weekend.

Hohmann

AVIATION

* 30-hr Operating Period (through 20/06Z): There is a 20-30% chance of Thunderstorms mainly near and south of a KBAN-KHTH- KU31 line, including KMMH through 03Z. Gusty outflow winds to 25-35 kts, lightning and small hail are possible around stronger cells. Otherwise, W-NW winds 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts (locally 30 kts), will gradually diminish after sundown. VFR Sunday with WNW winds 15-20 kts shifting to the NNW 5-15 kts after 20/03Z.

* Upcoming Week (Mon-Fri): Trough will prevail with daytime breezes persisting. There may be a few showers/storms near the Sierra or along any frontal passages, but right now the chances are low and less than 20%.

Hohmann

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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