Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 10:11 PM   Moonset 6:24 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 262059 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 159 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will prevail through the afternoon before tapering off in the evening. Warming and drying will commence Saturday and persist through the middle of next week before the pattern turns more unsettled during the first week of May.

DISCUSSION

Latest radar observations reveal widespread shower activity with some cumulus displaying deeper vertical development. 19Z mesoanalysis paints MUCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg across the Sierra into western Nevada, which will likely prove to be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development over the next 4-6 hours. Gusty outflows, brief downpours, small hail/graupel, and occasional lightning will serve as the potential hazards with any thunderstorm that should initiate. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Elsewhere, rain and mountain rain/snow will linger through the afternoon until all convective activity wanes after 5-6 PM PDT this evening.

Saturday will mark the beginning of a warming and drying trend that lasts through the middle of next week, courtesy of eastern Pacific ridging, with a couple caveats: 1) A slight chance of showers (10- 15%) Saturday afternoon and evening. 2) Conditional potential for showers Monday depending on the southern extent of a shortwave trough. Otherwise, a vast majority of the Sierra and western Nevada will remain dry amid steady warming. Highs are expected to return to the 60s and 70s for the first half of next week.

Latest ensemble guidance continues to advertise increasing odds of showers late next week and over the weekend, although it doesn't appear to be too impactful with typical chances of daytime showers each day. There is still quite a bit of disagreement among the 12Z suite of ensembles for late next week and next weekend with the GEFS favoring eastern Pacific troughing (wetter solution) while the ECMWF is leaning towards weak western ridging (drier solution). Regardless, both major ensemble guidance indicate an unsettled beginning to the month of May featuring near to slightly below average temperatures.

-Salas

AVIATION

* A cold front that presses southeast over the Sierra Front and western Nevada through this afternoon will continue to produce periods of MVFR conditions in heavier rainfall, isolated thunderstorms (25% chance), and snow showers above 7000’ that gradually taper-off between 00-04Z.

* Surface winds will at times continue to gust from W-NW at 20kts into the evening, and become light for most terminals later tonight. Look for briefly higher and more erratic gusts near showers and thunderstorms. FL100 winds will continue from the NW 20-25kts into Saturday, and produce brief periods of LLWS and moderate chop over Sierra and far western terminals overnight.

* With the exception of patchy dense fog forming around the Martis Valley overnight to include vicinity of KTRK, VFR conditions with typical breezes will return to the region Saturday and Sunday.
-Amanda

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:17 AM PDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM PDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:55 PM PDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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