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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 834 Am Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday evening...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 16 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 14 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 10 ft at 13 seconds...and nw 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 19 seconds.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 21 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt. Waves W 15 ft at 17 seconds.

PZZ400 834 Am Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Moderate to strong southerly breezes will persist through the weekend. Winds will be strongest in the northern outer waters with gusts up to 26 kts as a series of fronts continue to cross the area. These winds will support modest short period waves just over 7 feet. The sea state will continue to be mostly controlled by a series of mid period northwesterly swells. These swells will reach as steep as 13 feet at 14 seconds on Sunday. A similar unsettled pattern will continue through early next week with gradually stronger wind and steeper swells.

FXUS66 KEKA 021244 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 444 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Periods of moderate rainfall will impact northwest California this weekend through much of next week. The highest rainfall totals will likely occur in Del Norte County, with lighter totals expected southward toward Lake County. In addition, moderate southerly winds will impact exposed coastal ridges and and headlands.



DISCUSSION
Radar imagery shows patches of light rain shower beginning to spread across the area. Precipitation will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as a shortwaves move into the region. Rains will eventually become moderate to occasionally heavy across Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties going into the afternoon, lighter precipitation tracking into Mendocino and Lake counties. The main event is expected to arrive sometime late in the afternoon or early evening as a plume of 1-1.20 inch PWAT reach the coast. Steadier precipitation will pick up Sunday afternoon with the approaches of another shortwave. Storm total precipitation from Today through Sunday morning will max out around 5 inches, with the highest values over the higher terrain in Del Norte County. The highest rainfall rates should stay mostly below 0.5 inches per hour, with no to minimal impacts over the burn scars.

Southeasterly winds begin to ramp up, already gusting to 30 mph over some higher locations north of Cape Mendocino. Breezy southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across Humboldt and Del Norte coastal headlands and exposed ridges. This winds will remain below advisory level. A secondary period of gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph is expected for the more prominent ridges across the northern portion of the region on Sunday, some localize higher locations in Del Norte to 45 mph...but do not expect Advisory- level winds.

Mountain snow is expected mainly over the Trinity Alps this morning. Upslope flow is aiding in the cooling of the lower atmosphere, but the rapid moistening of the column should minimize evaporative cooling.

Multi model guidance then shows a stronger more organized frontal system progressing east across the NERN PAC during Tuesday, and then moving onshore across WA/OR/NRN CA by Wednesday. More rain, locally moderate to heavy in intensity, will be probable with the advancing front. A pre-frontal coastal barrier jet will also aid in near-advisory southerly winds during Tuesday night across mainly Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.

AVIATION
A gap between fronts has allowed for VFR to MVFR conditions to briefly build in across the coast this morning. The next round of showers already visible on radar, however, is likely to bring a return to IFR ceilings and visibilities before sunrise.
Showers this morning along with building south winds will lead to generally inconsistent MVFR to IFR ceilings. For the interior, widespread valley fog and low clouds has brought IFR to LIFR conditions. Increased mixing early this morning should at least modestly lift these conditions to IFR.

Rain will become more consistent and stronger this afternoon through the early evening. Heavy rain is likely along the coast north of Humboldt bay, causing LIFR to IFR conditions around sunset. Rain will gradually ease later tonight, likely allowing for improved conditions except in sheltered interior valleys where another round of low clouds and fog is expected, particularly in Mendocino County.
/JHW



MARINE
Winds over the water have gradually turned southerly overnight with isolated gusts in the northern waters in excess of 25 kts. Moderate to locally strong breezes will persist through the weekend as a series of fronts continue to cross the area. These winds will be sufficient to support short period waves up to 7 feet in the northern outer waters. For the most part, however, the seas state will continue to be dominated by a series of mid period northwesterly swells. These swells will vary with wave heights up to 13 feet at 14 seconds During the day on Sunday. These waves are sufficient to justify small craft advisories for all waters.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through early next week.
Southerly winds will strengthen and spread further south by Tuesday with gale force gusts briefly possible in the northern waters. At the same time, northwest swells will continue to build across the waters with maximum heights of 16 feet at 17 seconds late Monday through Tuesday. A strong low pressure system over the gulf of Alaska has the potential to pull a particularly potent swell across the waters midweek with waves up to 20 feet possible. Such a scenario would generate hazardous seas conditions and the highest surf of the season so far on area beaches. /JHW



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday for PZZ450-475.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Sunday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for PZZ470.

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Mendocino
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Sat -- 03:38 AM PST     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:24 AM PST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:55 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:22 PM PST     5.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM PST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mendocino, Mendocino Bay, California, Tide feet

Point Cabrillo
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Sat -- 12:29 AM PST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:00 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:59 AM PST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:55 AM PST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:55 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:28 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:58 PM PST     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:07 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Cabrillo, California Current, knots

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