Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:00 PM   Moonset 1:54 AM

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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 844 Am Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Today - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 9 seconds - .and nw 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy dense fog. Tonight - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 9 ft at 9 seconds - .and nw 2 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves N 10 ft at 10 seconds - .and nw 3 ft at 13 seconds. Fri night - N winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 9 ft at 10 seconds - .and nw 2 ft at 12 seconds. Sat - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 10 seconds. Sun - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 10 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds.

PZZ400 844 Am Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Northerly gales in the northern outer waters will continue through the end of this week as large, short- period seas persist across all zones. Slightly better conditions expected for the southern inner waters. Winds and seas expected to peak late Friday into Saturday then subside slightly by Sunday. However, gale or near-gale force winds and hazardous seas still remains possible late this weekend through early next week.

FXUS66 KEKA 161159 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 459 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will cool into the weekend with gusty north wind pushing onshore in the afternoon. Coastal stratus and fog will most likely return along much of the coast each night through Friday.



DISCUSSION
Skies have remained mostly clear overnight, allowing for another round of cool temperatures down into the 50s across the area. That said, offshore wind has been gradually weakening, allowing for shallow fog and marine stratus to gradually appear on satellite, especially around Humboldt Bay.

A shortwave passing over the Pacific Northwest today and Friday will help push gusty northerly wind onshore (gusts 10 to 20 mph most likely right along shore). While onshore flow will help support more extensive stratus and fog overnight, it will disrupt surface high pressure. Weaker high pressure will support a gradually cooling trend and only a very weak marine inversion that will most likely mix out each afternoon.

The trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen through the weekend, allowing for interior tempertures to drop below average. This will brings highs in the 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
This pattern will also allow for a deeper, though diffuse, marine layer. Such a pattern could generate very light coastal drizzle (10% chance) most likely Friday or Saturday morning.

Essentially all ensemble members show a generally troughy pattern continue into next week which will allow below normal temperatures to persist. Increasingly deep troughs will allow for more moisture to be pulled across the area. Though the vast majority of models show little chance (less than 20% chance) of wetting rain, some showers and thunderstorms are certainly possible over high terrain by mid next week. /JHW



AVIATION
Gusty northerly winds are slowly beginning to decouple from the surface layer, delaying marine stratus development at CEC this morning. Hi-res models beginning to verify the progression of stratus development at ACV and broken ceilings at CEC amidst a southerly wind reversal reaching around the Cape along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. NBM indicates >80% probability for <1,000 foot ceilings and IFR visibility's at ACV between 5 and 8 am this morning. Clouds expected to scatter out by early afternoon along the north coast with increasing northerly winds and daytime heating.
Similarly, IFR ceilings creeping up UKI valley this morning will likely persist through the early morning before offshore winds briefly turn northerly this afternoon.



MARINE
Northerly gales expected to continue in the northern outer waters through the end of the week, producing 10 to 14 foot short period waves across the outer waters as gusts waver in intensity and distribution. Conditions will be slightly moderated lee of the Cape down to Point Arena as the inner waters are sheltered from the strongest winds. HRRR currently indicating peak gusts of 35-45 knots possible Friday night into Saturday across the outer waters, producing significant wave heights exceeding 15 feet at 10-11 seconds. Steep and dangerous seas will continue through at least late this weekend - long range models vary on the continuation of gales in the southern waters as the orientation of offshore high pressure shifts.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

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Mendocino
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Thu -- 01:12 AM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:02 AM PDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:57 PM PDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mendocino, Mendocino Bay, California, Tide feet

Point Cabrillo
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Thu -- 02:07 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM PDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:13 AM PDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:13 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:31 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:39 PM PDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Cabrillo, California Current, knots

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