Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:40PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 4:58PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 915 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Overnight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 915 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Surface high pressure over quebec will continue to drift eastward and weaken through the middle portion of the week. Meanwhile, an amplified shortwave trough will eject into the great lakes region by Thursday, drawing a surface low across the northern tier and a cold front through the mid-atlantic. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region behind this front before another front approaches the area by next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260117
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
917 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure over quebec will continue to drift
eastward and weaken through the middle portion of the week.

Meanwhile, an amplified shortwave trough will eject into the
great lakes region by Thursday, drawing a surface low across the
northern tier and a cold front through the mid-atlantic. A weak
ridge of high pressure will build into the region behind this
front before another front approaches the area by next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Forecast mainly on track, so will keep forecast as-is, only will
adjust hourly grids based on the latest surface obs.

Otherwise, the dominant feature through Monday will be the high
centered over quebec and northern new england. With high
pressure to the north, the winds for our region will stay
persistent northeasterly through tonight and Monday.

Because this is not a favorable direction for large diurnal
temperature swings, especially now with warm ocean temperatures
in place, lows tonight will likely only be 10 to 15 degrees
below the day time highs on the coastal plains - generally in
the lower to mid 60s. North and west of the fall line which is
less likely to see a significant influence of the marine layer
overnight, lows will be in the 50s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday looks like a similar story to Sunday. The persistent
onshore flow continues, which will likely result in mostly
cloudy conditions on the coastal plains thanks in large part to
the warm ocean temperatures. Highs should once again be in the
70s across most of the area. As for precipitation, much like
this morning, we could see isolated showers, generally right
along the coast especially in the morning.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
High pressure will continue to drift across southeast canada
into the canadian maritime provinces through Wednesday, leading
to continued onshore, cool flow Tuesday. A warm front will begin
to push northward, leading to showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with
cloud cover lingering for the most part.

Temperatures will return to normal with a returning chance for
rainfall as a surface low migrates across ontario. As this low
moves toward the area, a cold front will progress eastward
across the great lakes. This will bring rainfall to the area
most of the day Wednesday with 0.5-1.5 inches of rain possible.

Guidance suggests the front will pass through the mid-atlantic
sometime Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday looks much nicer with seasonable
highs in the low to mid 80s and dry conditions. A front to our
northwest and a stalled front to our south will try to nudge
their way toward our region, however, they will likely interfere
with each other, leading to overall nice condition across our
area.

By Sunday, another shortwave perturbation will drift across
southern canada, leading to cyclogenesis and the formation of a
surface low across southeast canada. A cold front will also move
southeast with this system, approaching our area by Sunday
according to the latest guidance. There still exists a great
deal of discrepancy regarding the timing of this with the gfs
suggesting a much quicker and drier scenario, with the front
turning more zonal and dissipating by Sunday. In terms of high
temperatures and rainfall amounts, it is still too distant to
tell for sure.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions. Northeasterly winds should drop
below 10 kt and may shift more easterly through the overnight
hours.

Monday... MostlyVFR conditions. We could see some temporary
MVFR ceilings, especially from the delaware valley eastward
between 12 and 18z, but confidence is too low to include in the
tafs at this time. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 kt are once
again expected, with gusts near 20 kt possible, especially for
kmiv and kacy.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MostlyVFR with northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and
gusts to 15 knots.

Wednesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms. Light
and variable winds up to 5 knots.

Thursday...VFR with northwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR with southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
Strong northeasterly winds will continue through the day
tomorrow, so expect small craft advisory to continue at least
through the day on Monday, especially for the atlantic coastal
waters.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions expected with northeast winds
gusting to 20 knots and seas generally below 5 feet. Seas may
reach or exceed 5 feet for the southern atlantic zones, however.

Wednesday... Seas 2 to 4 feet. Easterly winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday... Seas 1 to 3 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 knots.

Friday... Seas 1 to 3 feet. Westerly winds turning southerly 10
to 15 knots.

Rip currents...

onshore flow and rough surf, with wave heights near or above 5
ft, will continue on Monday. Therefore, expect high risk for
the formation of dangerous rip currents again on Monday. The
elevated rip current risk may also continue into Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
A brisk northeast wind is forecast to continue along the coasts
of new jersey and delaware through late Monday. The wind is
expected to become east with speeds slowly diminishing on Monday
night and Tuesday.

The onshore flow may result in spotty minor tidal flooding
around the times of the late afternoon evening high tide on
Monday and Tuesday. However, the minor flooding is not
anticipated to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at
this time.

The base level of the early morning high tides are considerably
lower than those of the late afternoon evening high tides, so
no issues are expected early in the day on Monday or Tuesday.

Once we get past the early week's onshore flow, we will begin
to experience particularly high astronomical tides associated
with the upcoming new moon phase. As a result, there is another
potential for at least some spotty minor tidal flooding from
late this week into the holiday weekend.

Equipment
The WSR-88D at dover, de (kdox), is out of service at this
time. The time when it will return is presently unknown.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through Monday evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk through Monday evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Davis
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Davis
aviation... Davis johnson
marine... Davis johnson
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi46 min 69°F 73°F1020.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi64 min NNE 8 55°F 1021 hPa52°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi46 min NE 6 G 14 69°F 72°F1020.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi70 min 1020.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi52 min NNE 12 G 14 65°F 80°F1022.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 43 mi124 min NNE 4.1 66°F 1022 hPa62°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi52 min 67°F 79°F1021.7 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi46 min 65°F 79°F1022.3 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi46 min E 22 G 24 70°F 72°F1020.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi52 min 65°F 80°F1021.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi58 min ENE 6 G 12 66°F 76°F1022 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi52 min 67°F 81°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi4.7 hrsNE 9 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F60°F76%1022.2 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi4.7 hrsNE 910.00 miFair65°F59°F81%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N7N7N7N8NE12NE16
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1 day agoN4N5N7N6N8N8NE10
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E8E9E8E9E6E4E4NE3CalmCalmNE4N4N5
2 days agoW4W4W3NW3N7N10N12
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N10N9N9NW11NW6N4N5N4N5CalmN5W3W3NW5N6N5N3

Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.611.72.433.23.12.721.40.90.50.50.91.82.83.6443.732.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mays Landing, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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Mays Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.71.32.233.53.73.52.92.11.40.90.50.61.32.43.54.34.64.543.22.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.