Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estell Manor, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms remain across the area today with the potential for areas of heavy rain leading to a risk of flash flooding. There is also some risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.

2. A warm front is expected to lift through the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and storms.

3. For the later half of the week, we will have a warm, humid, and at times stormy pattern in place.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms remain across the area today with the potential for areas of heavy rain leading to a risk of flash flooding. There is also some risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.

An upper trough and surface low pressure system will move across New York and New England later today and tonight. An associated front will cross the area tonight. These synoptic factors along with the very warm and humid air mass will bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.

Today, a cold front will be approaching the region. There continues to be a signal for ripples of energy along the front. Also, in the upper-levels, a jet streak will be overhead with our area in the right entrance region which allows for additional forcing and ascent for our area. Showers and thunderstorms look to be ongoing into tomorrow morning with an increase in the coverage again during the afternoon and evening.

PWAT values are very high across the area and we've already issued several flash flood warnings across the area tonight.
The WPC outlook continues with SLIGHT risk (2 of 5) for Excessive Rainfall for most areas today. Surrounding the SLIGHT risk is a MARGINAL risk. The Flash flood Watch continues for many areas until 11PM tonight. Total rainfall will range 1 to 3 inches in many areas but locally 4 or 5 inches could occur.

In terms of the severe weather risk today, uncertainty remains around the exact extent of instability present due to cloud cover and the round of showers/thunderstorms around during the morning. If enough heating develops during the course of the day, then this combined with some increase in shear ahead of the front could lead to at least some severe thunderstorm risk. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area across New Jersey and extreme east Pennsylvania for a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms with the primary risk being damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front is expected to lift through the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and storms.

Once the current system gets east of our region, the next thing to watch is a warm front slowly lifting north over our region. The most likely time period for this frontal passage is Tuesday night into Wednesday, leaving the day time on Tuesday relatively dry. However, at least one model is showing a very fast warm frontal passage with the front north of our region by late Wednesday Night. In this fast solution, the pattern is odd, depicting a very pronounced mid and upper level short wave ridge in place throughout the day. This pattern isn't favorable for fast frontal passages. Therefore, have favored the blend of guidance, which favors the slower solution.

As far as hazards, the primary hazard is likely to be heavy rain leading to flash flooding. There will likely be significant low level moisture advection behind the front, increasing the risk for heavy rain. That combined with the fact that storm motions are likely to be quite slow (less than 20 mph), increases the risk for flash flooding. One factor which we won't know until late Monday is how much antecedent conditions will play a role in the flash flooding threat - areas that get heavy rain through the day on Monday will have little opportunity for the water to drain before this next round of rain chances.

The severe threat is less clear. This will be dependent on the timing of the front - if the frontal passage, and thus prime period for any showers and storms is during the daylight hours when instability is maximized, there will be some threat for damaging winds. Some model soundings show a very dry mid layer, increasing the threat for downbursts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...For the later half of the week, we will have a warm, humid, and at times stormy pattern in place.

Once the mid week warm front moves north of our region, we will likely be sandwiched between a Bermuda centered well to our east, and a nearly stationary mid level trough axis centered over the Western Great Lakes region.

The net result of this is that our region will have warm and moist southwesterly flow in place for multiple days. As such, expect hot and humid conditions. Additionally, there could be daily rain chances, from two different sources. First, if there is any shower or storm development on the sea breeze in the afternoon. Secondly, there could be some embedded very small short wave troughs that propagate northeastward over our region during this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...Largely MVFR to IFR but brief periods of sub-IFR during the most intense showers/tstms. Showers/tstms seem to be redeveloping across most of Delmarva/south NJ and these should move North and affect the Delaware Valley TAF sites thru dawn.
Others will move across KRDG/KABE. Light South winds. Low/medium confid.

Monday...IFR to MVFR. During the morning, ceilings look to lift a bit to MVFR. There is VCSH at the Lehigh Valley terminals given shower coverage. The remainder of the terminals have prevailing SHRA and some PROB30 groups, mainly 18Z-21Z for potential thunderstorms. Visibility restrictions are also expected with any showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminals. Low confidence for the convection with medium confidence on the ceiling restrictions.

Outlook...

Monday Night and Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Some lingering showers and storms Monday Night may briefly lower conditions to MVFR.

Tuesday Night through Friday...Periods of MVFR or lower conditions possible, primarily in the afternoon and evening periods each day, due to showers and storms.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the nearshore Atlantic coastal waters through 6 AM Tuesday. South flow continues today with wind gusts up to 30 kt. Seas will be mostly 5 to 8 feet.
Scattered gusty thunderstorms are possible today, particularly in the afternoon and evening. A slow decrease winds winds and seas tonight with sub-SCA probable by dawn. Fair overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Thursday and Friday...Currently forecasting winds and seas to stay below SCA criteria, but wind gusts near 25 kt are possible both days.

Rip Currents...

There is a HIGH risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents along the NJ coast today due to long period swells with surf heights near or above 3 feet. For the Delaware Beaches, there is a MODERATE risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, surf heights should decrease, so the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected to be MODERATE along the NJ coast, and LOW for the Delaware Beaches.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch through this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>019.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...Flood Watch through this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.