Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:52 AM EDT (13:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:16AMMoonset 4:52PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..S winds around 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 702 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will slide from new england to the western atlantic through the end of the week. A warm front will lift through the region tonight, followed by a rather weak cold front on Friday. Bermuda high pressure becomes established for the weekend. Another weak cold front will cross the region Monday, potentially stalling nearby through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 161337 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 937 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide from New England to the western Atlantic through the end of the week. A warm front will lift through the region tonight, followed by a rather weak cold front on Friday. Bermuda high pressure becomes established for the weekend. Another weak cold front will cross the region Monday, potentially stalling nearby through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The surface high pressure axis is extending from Maine down into the Mid-Atlantic. This axis will shift offshore today and allow a warm front to approach from the west. Latest lo and hi-res models keep any precipitation associated with the warm front to our west through the day. Therefore no changes to going forecast.

I made very small adjustments to the temps grids for today. All-in-all, I have remained on the higher end of guidance, mainly for two reasons. While we did get stratus overnight, it underperformed. In addition, there is a lack of H8 cooling compared to yesterday.

Previous discussion . As of 700 AM . Stratus expansion has come to a halt this morning and has remained scattered. We may see a brief up tick in clouds as the sun comes up, but have trended sky cover down for now. Dry weather will also persist today as the 16.00z 250 mb hand analysis revealed broad anticyclonic flow across the southern United States. Over south/ central Canada a trough axis was located with a jet streak extending over Ontario. At 500 mb, two anticyclones were analyzed, the first being over TX and the second being over NC. This second mid- level high located over NC, had a noted ridge axis extending into Quebec. A shortwave was also analyzed over IL heading east this morning. During the day today the ridge axis extension will easily keep the region dry. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show an impressive 600/700 mb inversion in place. 850 mb temperatures cool slightly this afternoon to around 13 degrees C, so have taken a few degrees off of Wednesday's high temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. This evening, the shortwave that is currently located over IL will be heading northeast towards NY. As the wave heads northeast, it will begin to deamplify with 500 mb heights remaining relatively unchanged across NJ. PWATs do come up ahead of the wave to around 1.80" which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year, but looking at forecast soundings this is somewhat deceiving. Dry air remains in the mid-levels at this time, with upper and mid-level lift almost non- existent. The greatest chance of precipitation will be across the northwestern zones, or closer to the wave. Towards the NJ coast, the chance of precipitation is very low. High res guidance is indicating some weak rain, but forecast soundings reveal this to be due to low level saturation. Usually in these setups low stratus and/or fog is the result and not measurable precipitation.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Overview: While there are daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the long term, the bigger story will likely be the heat, especially in the Sunday through Wednesday period (with the hottest day likely to be Monday).

Details:

Friday . Relative to the next several days, Friday will be one of the cooler days, with highs "only" in the 80s. However, dew points will be creeping up into the 70s, resulting in heat index values in the 90s. Additionally, a weak mid level short wave trough and surface cold front will provide lift for shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values are expected to be higher than normal (interestingly, this is despite a robust dry layer in the mid levels), and we should have a very deep warm cloud layer. So there is some risk for heavy rain. However, the relatively progressive nature of the trough and the previously mentioned dry mid level layer may limit the threat. For now, will continue to monitor this hazard with subsequent model runs. At this point, the effective shear looks meager for any severe threats.

Saturday and Sunday . The cold front on Friday is very weak, so unfortunately, we won't see any cool down lingering into the weekend. Instead, heat continues to build (though we may see dewpoints edge off slightly). By Sunday, triple digit heat index values are possible for much of the coastal plains. Not surprisingly with the heat and humidity, there will be chances for convection each day, but with the lack of any synoptic scale forcing, coverage of showers and storms each day should be quite limited.

Monday . At this point, Monday looks to be the hottest day, with highs mostly in the 90s (except right along the shore at in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos), and heat index values above 100 nearly everywhere (once again, the exception will likely be right along the shore and in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos). However, it's not just the day time temperatures that have me concerned, both Sunday night and Monday night, low temperatures may not drop below the mid 70s for the coastal plains and urban corridor, leaving little opportunity for overnight relief. The one caveat to all of this is that some guidance has a weak cold front approaching late in the day. If cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm coverage is more widespread than I currently am forecasting in response to the approaching front, then temperatures may be a few degrees lower than what is currently forecast.

Tuesday through Wednesday . If the weak cold front late on Monday does manage to get into our region, before stalling and eventually dissipating, there will be a very slight cool down, but dangerously hot conditions will remain possible, with highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This morning . Scattered MVFR clouds remain littered over the region this morning as moisture remains trapped underneath a low level inversion. Southeast winds 5-10 knots diminishing to less than 5 knots or light and variable. Moderate confidence; low confidence regarding any IFR ceiling development.

Today . MVFR ceilings improving to VFR by late morning. Southeast winds increasing to 8-12 knots. There is some potential for wind gusts of 15-20 knots in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Patchy fog/stratus with sub-VFR conditions possible near RDG and ABE. There is the potential for some IFR conditions as well, with the greatest chance being across the western TAF sites. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming more southerly overnight. Low confidence on timing of the lower conditions.

Outlook .

Friday . Mostly VFR conditions expected. Brief MVFR conditions are possible if any showers or thunderstorms move directly over a TAF site, primarily between 18 and 00Z. South- southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Generally moderate confidence with low confidence on if showers and storms will move over TAF sites.

Friday Night . Starting VFR, but fog may develop after 06Z, especially where rain moves out of the area, which could lower the visibility to MVFR or even IFR. Winds starting southwesterly around 5 kt, but becoming light and variable. Low confidence, especially on the details of fog development.

Saturday through Saturday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily Saturday afternoon. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday through Monday . Prevailing VFR, but brief MVFR or even IFR will be possible with showers and storms, especially each afternoon. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. Today and tonight . Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas mainly 3 ft.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Thursday along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. A southeast wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 MPH. Breaking waves are expected to be around 2 feet with a medium period swell.

The low risk is anticipated to continue on Friday. A south wind of 10 to 15 MPH is expected at that time. Breaking waves are forecast to range from 1 to 2 feet with a short period swell.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air due to damage to the antenna during the June 3rd derecho. It is scheduled to be repaired later today.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Haines/Johnson Near Term . Haines/Kruzdlo Short Term . Haines Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Haines/Johnson Marine . Haines/Johnson Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi83 min 75°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi83 min NNE 8.9 72°F 1027 hPa64°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi83 min E 9.9 G 14 76°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi83 min ESE 13 G 15
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi83 min 81°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi83 min ESE 13 G 18 73°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi83 min 82°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi83 min ESE 13 G 16 77°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi83 min 81°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi59 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F63°F69%1025.7 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi59 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F76%1025.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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E13E11E10E10SE9SE10SE7SE7E7SE7E7SE6CalmE4E3E6SE6SE9E10
1 day agoN7NW10
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W11NW7W9NW10NW8NW9NW8NW7W4W3NW3W4CalmCalmCalmW3W4NW4N5CalmNE4E10
2 days agoNW7W7NW9NW10NW9NW7W6NW7W9W8W6CalmSW3W6W4CalmW4W4NW4W4W4NW4NW5NW6

Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:03 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.91.422.52.932.82.31.71.10.70.50.81.42.333.53.83.73.22.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Mays Landing, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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Mays Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.81.11.82.53.13.43.432.41.71.20.80.611.92.93.74.24.343.42.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.