Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estell Manor, NJ

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 25, 2021 3:23 PM EST (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 257 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
This afternoon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain late. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain. Snow likely late in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of drizzle and rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of drizzle early in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 257 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure weakens as it shifts to our east later today into tonight. Low pressure in the southern plains tracks east- northeast tonight before weakening as it shifts off the mid- atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another low will develop in the southeast states Tuesday night, then rapidly intensify as it shifts off the southern mid-atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong high pressure will build into the eastern u.s. Later Friday and Saturday, then another system will affect the northeast Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estell Manor, NJ
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location: 39.37, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 251730 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1230 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure weakens as it shifts to our east later today into tonight. Low pressure in the southern Plains tracks east- northeast tonight before weakening as it shifts off the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another low will develop in the Southeast states Tuesday night, then rapidly intensify as it shifts off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong high pressure will build into the eastern U.S. later Friday and Saturday, then another system will affect the Northeast Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1215 pm update: Have lowered temperatures and dew points (the latter substantially) this afternoon, as some weak cold-air damming has commenced and contributed to very large dew point depressions across the area. This will likely have implications on precipitation onset (drier implies a general later onset, especially north of Delmarva) and type (wet-bulbing effects will likely mean more wintry types initially) for this evening into tomorrow morning Previous discussion follows.

A mid level ridge extended from the Gulf of Mexico up to the Great Lakes early this morning. The feature will progress to the east today. Meanwhile, a mid level short wave trough located over the Middle Mississippi River Valley early this morning will ride up the ridge and it should approach our region late in the day.

Clouds covered most of our region early this morning. The clouds are expected to erode from the northeast during the morning and early afternoon, before the clouds begin to return from the southwest late in the day.

Light precipitation associated with the mid level trough is forecast to begin spreading into parts of eastern Maryland and Delaware from the southwest toward evening. It should begin as light rain.

High temperatures are anticipated to favor the 30s today, with some readings in the lower 40s in eastern Maryland, central and southern Delaware, and southern New Jersey. The wind should be light and variable.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. 1215 pm update: Initial review of 12z guidance suggests a brief burst of moderate snow is possible in portions of Delmarva and far southern New Jersey during the evening and early overnight hours. With temperatures and dew points verifying lower than forecast today, think wet-bulb effects will contribute to the snow potential in this area, perhaps even more than the hi-res guidance (e.g., the NAM Nest and WRF-NMM) is indicating and especially if heavier rates can materialize. A winter weather advisory may be required for this area. Will continue to review guidance and will make a decision by mid afternoon.

Previous discussion .

The mid level ridge axis is anticipated to pass off the Middle Atlantic coast early on Tuesday. Another short wave that was moving onto the Great Plains early this morning should reach the eastern Great Lakes late on Tuesday night. Weakening low pressure at the surface is expected to accompany the mid level feature. A secondary low is forecast to develop in the Virginia vicinity on Tuesday morning before sliding out to sea.

The forecast for the period from Monday night through Tuesday night remains a bit of a challenge. While a significant winter event is not expected, much of our region should recieve some light snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The guidance trends continue to suggest decreasing precipitation amounts. Based on the forecast temperature profiles, it appears as though we will see mostly rain tonight in southern Delaware, mostly snow from the Pennsylvania Turnpike and Interstate 195 northward, and a mix of snow, sleet and rain between the two. With dry air in place to our north and northeast, the precipitation may have a difficult time reaching parts of the Pocono Region and northern New Jersey before daybreak on Tuesday.

The developing easterly surface flow will continue to bring low level moisture into our region on Tuesday. Meanwhile, dry air in the mid levels will begin to push overhead from the west. The potential for snow growth aloft will likely decrease and eventually come to an end during Tuesday afternoon. While surface temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing up to the Interstate 95 Corridor with light rain and drizzle expected, many locations to the northwest are forecast to transition from snow and sleet to freezing rain on Tuesday.

Being that the snow and sleet that is expected for tonight is well below advisory criteria, we will not be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Our main concern is the freezing rain from very late tonight into Tuesday. That will likely require an advisory for parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. However, we have some time to evaluate the situation further before making a final decision this afternoon.

We went with the low end of guidance for our temperature forecast for tonight and Tuesday.

It appears as though the low level moisture will linger into Tuesday night, along with areas of light rain and drizzle. Temperatures should remain at or below freezing in the Lehigh Valley, the Poconos and northern New Jersey leading to some additional light ice accumulation there.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Summary . A rapidly intensifying coastal storm Wednesday night and Thursday quickly tracks out to sea, then much colder and windy conditions to end the week and start the weekend followed by another storm system on Sunday.

Synoptic Overview . An active flow regime with an initial robust northern stream closed low traversing southern Canada Wednesday, which then eventually slides across the Northeast late Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, southern stream energy slides east from the southern Plains to start Wednesday and emerges off the southern Mid- Atlantic coast Thursday morning. These two features do not phase and therefore the southern stream trough that supports a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks right out to sea. A large upper- level trough is in the East later Thursday through Friday night then it gradually lifts out Saturday. The active pattern delivers another trough into the East by later Sunday.

For Wednesday and Thursday . Initial westerly flow aloft in the wake of a sheared out system backs some Wednesday night in advance of the next system. The initial system comprised of a surface low well southeast of Cape Cod to start Wednesday will move farther away however there is a surface trough trailing west-northwestward near our far northern zones. The current thinking is that any precipitation ends early Wednesday morning and the balance of the day is then dry, however cannot rule out some freezing drizzle or drizzle early mainly across the far northern areas. Otherwise, the cloud cover may tend to hold on for much of the area Wednesday.

As we go through Wednesday night, southern stream energy will result in surface low development off the Carolina coast by daybreak Thursday. Meanwhile, a closed low is traversing southern Canada. These two systems remain separate. Given a closed low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes and a lack of phasing resulting in no backing of the flow aloft ahead of the southern stream wave, the coastal low will tend to track right out to sea through Thursday. Some guidance brushes mostly our southern zones with some precipitation, therefore will hold onto some low PoPs for a time Wednesday night into Thursday. At this point given the synoptic setup not favoring a storm track turning up the coast, little in the way of precipitation is anticipated. The main affect from this rapidly intensifying storm offshore may end up being the winds. Strong high pressure builds toward the Ohio Valley Thursday while the storm well offshore continues to deepen. This results in a tight pressure gradient across our region with strengthening flow aloft. There should be an inversion developing, however winds to 40 knots are forecast just below it and mixing looks good given cold air advection and steeper low-level lapse rates. As a result, wind gusts to 30-40 mph are expected as of now.

For Friday and Saturday . The Canadian closed low is forecast to dive across the Northeast Friday with robust cold air advection occurring. This will also maintain a tight pressure gradient and efficient mixing within a strong wind field. As a result, Friday will be rather cold with a gusty wind and much drier air as dew points tumble into the teens and single digits. There should be some lake effect activity which may try to reach into the Poconos, however the flow may become more northerly and limit this activity to much closer to the eastern Great Lakes. The winds then subside for Saturday as high pressure slides across our area and gradually weakens. The next in a series of systems then slides across the U.S. through Saturday night approaching our area by daybreak Sunday with potentially the leading edge of the warm air advection driven precipitation arriving. Lingering cold air and a dry low-level air mass may result in some snow at the onset.

For Sunday . An upper-level trough which may be comprised of a closed low centered near the western Great Lakes during Sunday sends leading energy in its base into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will drive surface low pressure near or just south of Delmarva Sunday night. There is a surface high centered well north in Canada with some semblance of a wedge down into our region, however the overall setup is less certain. Given the main energy hanging back over the Great Lakes, we may be dealing with some snow to a wintry mix to a change to rain in some areas. These details are much less certain this far out in time.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR with CIGs generally 5-10 kft. Light and variable winds. High confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR this evening north of PHL, but expecting snow to move into Delmarva and southern New Jersey between 00z and 06z. Restrictions may affect ILG/MIV and perhaps even RDG/PHL/ACY depending on how north the precipitation shield makes it. However, better chances are south of the terminals, with more of a general deterioration of conditions to MVFR after 06z from southwest to northeast as light precipitation begins to move in. Precipitation type will mainly be snow initially, though some sleet and freezing rain/drizzle may mix in at PHL/ILG/ACY/MIV by 12z. ABE/TTN may remain VFR all night. Light/variable winds in the evening becoming east or east- northeast up to 10 kt after 06z. Low confidence.

Tuesday . Restrictions likely, with IFR expected at most terminals by afternoon. Precipitation types will be a challenge to forecast. Expecting mostly RA at ACY/MIV by 15z. A mix will likely dominate at ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN during the morning before transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. RDG/ABE will likely see mostly freezing rain or sleet during the day. Precipitation rates/amounts will be light. Winds mainly easterly up to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . Mainly IFR. Light rain and drizzle are possible at KACY, KMIV, KILG, KPHL and KPNE. Some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle may impact KRDG, KABE and KTTN. Variable wind less than 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Wednesday . Sub-VFR conditions possible early, otherwise VFR. West- northwest to northwest winds increasing to around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Sub-VFR conditions possible, especially south and east of PHL with a chance of snow. North winds 5-15 knots Wednesday night, becoming north to northwest Thursday and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-35 knots. Low confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest winds diminish to 10-15 knots Thursday night, then increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue through tonight. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 2 to 3 feet. A burst of snow or a wintry mix is expected tonight, which may result in visibility restrictions, especially on Delaware Bay and the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Wednesday and Thursday . The conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory during the day Wednesday. Northerly winds then rapidly increase by daybreak Thursday with gales probable Thursday. Seas on the Atlantic waters should build to near 10 feet.

Thursday night . Northwest gales probable with seas remaining well above 5 feet. Freezing spray possible.

Friday . At least Small Craft Advisory conditions with northwest winds continuing, but seas slowly diminishing with time. Freezing spray possible, especially at night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . CMS/Iovino Short Term . CMS/Iovino Long Term . CMS/Gorse Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Gorse/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi54 min 38°F 41°F1019.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi54 min W 1.9 37°F 1020 hPa12°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi54 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 40°F1018.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi54 min N 2.9 G 4.1 1019.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi54 min 34°F 38°F1019.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi54 min 37°F 38°F1018.8 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi54 min 35°F 39°F1019.1 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi54 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 36°F 39°F1019 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 47 mi54 min 34°F 38°F1018.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 48 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 35°F 30°F1019.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi54 min 35°F 39°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ10 mi30 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast37°F12°F36%1018.9 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F13°F36%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11W8W10W8W8W7W6W5W6NW6NW4NW3N4NW5NW5N5N5N4N5N3N3NW3W4N7
1 day agoNW18
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2 days agoNW11W13W6W4W6W4W5W5W5W6W6NW5NW6NW6NW9NW16
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Tide / Current Tables for River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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River Bend Marina
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     3.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:36 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.71.52.32.93.33.53.22.721.30.70.20.20.61.31.92.52.82.82.41.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mays Landing, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey
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Mays Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:25 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:22 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.30.411.92.83.53.93.93.52.821.30.60.20.30.91.72.433.33.12.51.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.