Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Galena, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:40PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:22 PM EST (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 938 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Patchy fog late this evening. Rain likely late this evening, then isolated showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain and snow. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow likely. Patchy fog.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move from the great lakes into southeastern canada overnight, dragging its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Galena, MD
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location: 39.37, -75.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 100206 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 906 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure passes north of the area tonight into Tuesday, and a cold front will then pass through the region Tuesday evening. Strong high pressure builds in from the west late Wednesday into Thursday and moves offshore on Friday. Low pressure affects the Northeast Friday night into Saturday, followed by high pressure for the start of the following week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/.

900 PM Update . No major changes to the forecast. Rain continues at this hour over much of the area but it will taper off west to east overnight as a warm front draped across the region lifts north. Minor changes were made to T,Td and POP grids based on latest obs and trends.

Previous Discussion . An upper level jet positioned to our west and south will continue to provide forcing for persistent stratiform rainfall through at least the evening hours. This is the period forecast to bring the highest rainfall totals through the area, with amounts of 0.50" to 1.00+" along and north/west of I-95 and less than 0.50" south/east of I-95. A warm front is lifting north through the region this afternoon and warm air advection will continue to increase as will southerly winds through the overnight period. As a result, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50s outside of the higher terrain by daybreak Tuesday. As the jet pivots toward our north through early Tuesday, we will lose the best forcing for widespread precipitation overnight through Tuesday morning, so a lull in the widespread rainfall is expected. However, a few showers are still possible during this period.

With continued warm air advection, temperatures will continue to rise through around noon Tuesday until the cold front arrives, peaking in the low 60s along and south/east of I-95. The front will cross the forecast area from northwest to southeast through the afternoon hours with temperatures falling and winds shifting northwest behind it. An enhancement in precipitation is forecast as the front pushes through, mainly during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts with this round of rainfall should be generally less than 0.25". Most of the rain will be moved out of the area by Tuesday evening with chances for a few lingering showers into the evening.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. Tuesday night the surface cold front will be well off the coast with not much in the way of coverage initially expected. Late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday the 700/600 mb thermal gradient will begin to tighten as the shortwave approaches. Latest GFS and NAM FGEN fields are fairly impressive with lift increasing starting over Maryland and spreading northeast. The NAM and the other high res models are depicting this as precipitation spreading over the area rather rapidly Wednesday morning. The NAM is slightly further south with the strongest forcing for ascent compared to the GFS and ECMWF, but overall agreement is not to bad. The main concern will be precipitation type issues.

Over the southern Poconos thermal profiles support all snow for the event, but the strongest FGEN signal remains just southeast of this area. The best forcing for ascent is usually towards the warm side of the FGEN band, which would favor limiting snowfall totals here. Towards the I-95 corridor the best chance of precipitation exists, but thermal profiles initially support rain. Both the NAM and GFS show initially rain changing over to a rain/snow mix and then finally all snow. NAM forecast soundings indicate slightly stronger 700/800 mb winds and implied WAA. A brief transition to sleet is indicated via the NAM, but the most likely scenario appears to be rain/snow to snow as max temperatures aloft on the NAM seem to warm compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The most likely snowfall totals across the area are about 1 to 2" with slightly higher totals over the northwestern zones. The change over to snow and subsequent totals will be highly sensitive to the thermal profile and QPF footprint though.

Wednesday afternoon the FGEN band will head offshore with the dry conveyor belt heading east. This will bring a rapid end to the precipitation from the west. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 30s for most of the area (colder over the southern Poconos and warmer along the coast).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Summary: Cold and dry Thursday, warming up on Friday with rain likely Friday night into Saturday. Slightly cooler with some lingering light rain chances on Sunday, then likely dry and seasonable on Monday.

Dailies:

Thursday . Strong (1040 mb) High Pressure builds in from the west on Thursday with cold and dry conditions resulting. Although it will be mostly sunny highs will only reach the 20s in the Poconos and generally low to mid 30s elsewhere. Overnight mins will generally be in the teens to low-mid 20s, although these could be slightly warmer (particularly in the south) if low-lvl cloud cover begins to move in (as suggested by the GFS/Canadian)

Friday . The high will move into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, with east to southeast flow developing behind the it. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on (e.g. from the upper 30s in the Poconos to lower 50s in Delmarva).

Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast U.S. and begin to lift north. A warm front will develop out ahead of that low and will lift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the day Friday. Although Friday starts out dry, some light overunning precip may develop late in the day. It should be warm enough for mostly rain, but can't rule out some frozen precipitation Friday evening in the far north given that initial low-lvl wet-bulb temps will be fairly low. There are still some timing discrepancies among the global models with the CMC being very fast, the GFS intermediate, and the UKMET/EC slower. Consequently retained the thinking of the previous forecast with respect to PoPs leaving mostly slight-chance/Chc PoPs during the day on Friday, as suspect that most of the initial moisture surge will manifest itself as virga rather than measurable precip (particularly up north).

Friday night into Saturday . Guidance has come into better agreement that precipitation will be likely in the Friday night into Saturday morning timeframe as the surface low and warm (or potentially occluded front) will pass through/near our area (there are still some slight discrepancies in the low's positioning). Guidance depicts us drying fairly rapidly behind the cold front on Saturday so cut PoPs a bit after 18Z but left low-end Chc PoPs in case timing changes. We will start Saturday in the warm sector and even behind the cold front the cold advection isn't particularly extreme so most locations should top out in the 50s.

Sunday/Monday . A secondary cold front associated with the northern branch low moving over the Great Lakes will cross the area on Sunday, with maybe some light precipitation accompanying it (but suspect most of the area remains dry). Temps will be a bit cooler than Saturday but still generally mild (upper 40s to lower 50s).

Monday currently looks to be a dry day as high pressure builds near the area, while the (likely) next storm system to impact our area begins to take shape over the Southern US. Generally expect highs near climo.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . There will continue to be some fluctuations between IFR and MVFR this evening before most sites should go to predominate MVFR overnight with even VFR possible at times. Winds generally S/SW 10-15 with gusts of 20-25 knots . especially overnight. Moderate Confidence in forecast evolution.

Tuesday . MVFR with periods of IFR ceilings possible after 16Z. Rain showers developing after 16Z. This next round of rain should move out late day between 21 and 0z. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts turning westerly after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . MVFR/IFR in rain changing to snow overnight. Winds W/NW 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain/snow in the morning. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR in the afternoon. West winds near 10 kt.

Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR early, but the chances for sub-VFR conditions will increase on Friday.. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Moderate confidence

Friday night-Saturday . Sub VFR conditions likely Friday night/Saturday AM in rain, maybe some improvement Saturday afternoon behind a cold front.. Winds veering more southerly Saturday AM and then more westerly on Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence

MARINE. Tonight . A small craft advisory continues for the Atlantic coastal waters tonight as winds will increase to 20-25 knots, with gusts of 30 knots. Strong winds just above the surface do exist, 40 to 50 kts around 1 kft, but low level warm air advection will likely limit mixing and keep winds in SCA criteria.

OUTLOOK .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . The small craft advisory will continue through Tuesday for the Atlantic coastal waters with a diminish in winds forecast Tuesday night. Wave heights will then fall below SCA criteria Tuesday night. Current small craft advisory for the coastal waters might have to be extended for a few of hours to account for the slower timing in wave height reduction.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts to 25 kt are possible.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning . A brief period of SCA wind gusts will be possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the low level jet strengthens. For now the episode looks rather transient.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly-northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday . Easterly winds will continue to increase Friday night with SCA conditions possible starting early Saturday morning. Elevated seas will then persist through Saturday afternoon as winds turn from the west.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Short Term . Haines Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Fitzsimmons/Haines/Staarmann Marine . Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 13 mi58 min SW 7 G 13 53°F 42°F1009.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi58 min S 8 G 13 52°F 45°F1009.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 53°F 46°F1009.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 23 mi58 min 53°F 44°F1008.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 30 mi58 min SW 17 G 22 54°F 46°F1010.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi52 min SW 13 G 18 52°F 1008.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 35 mi58 min W 5.1 G 13 51°F 45°F1008.7 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi52 min 50°F
44063 - Annapolis 39 mi28 min S 14 G 19 50°F 45°F1010.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 40 mi52 min 53°F 1009.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi58 min 49°F 43°F1008.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi82 min SE 14 G 15 50°F 45°F1011.3 hPa (-0.5)50°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------CalmCalmCalm--CalmSW5S4S7--SW6S7S5
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Sassafras River, Betterton, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:19 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:27 AM EST     1.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EST     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:13 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:23 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:54 PM EST     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.111.61.91.91.4-0.3-1.4-1.9-2.1-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.61.21.82.121.50.8-0.9-1.4-1.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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