NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 933 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Patchy fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 933 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 030131 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 831 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracking toward Lake Ontario will lift a warm front into our area by Sunday, before another low develops and tracks off the coast. Weak high pressure builds in for early next week, followed by a weak storm system passing by around Tuesday night.
Expect progressively colder temperatures through Thursday as high pressure builds in for the latter part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 8:15PM...Fog reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile has been observed across many areas of the region. A dense fog advisory is now in effect for all of Delmarva until 1AM, southern NJ and the urban corridor until 2AM. Once rain arrives in these areas tonight, denser fog should be hindered some.
However, conditions are forecast to continue to be favorable for fog overall tonight. Areas of fog across the region (not necessarily dense) can be expected until 10AM Sunday. It is even likely fog may persist across many areas for much of the day tomorrow. The forecast may be needed to be updated going forward to include fog for later and/or to include greater magnitude fog
Previous discussion remains below

As we head into tonight, skies will quickly cloud back over as the next low pressure materializes to our southwest. A warm front positioned across the Chesapeake will gradually lift northward tonight as low pressure moves into the Tennessee River Valley. By Sunday morning, low pressure will be located near W PA and will begin to occlude as a secondary low tracks over VA and eventually across NJ by Sunday night. Lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

The 12Z guidance suite this morning has slowed down the onset of rain moving into the area tonight, now beginning between midnight and 3AM from southwest to northeast. Still the heaviest rain is on pace to fall between the pre-dawn to late morning hours as low pressure tracks toward our area. Pockets of heavier rain will begin to taper off to just some lingering showers by the afternoon as low pressure tracks overhead and offshore. The exception is across the higher elevations of NE PA and N NJ where some pockets of light rain may continue with wrap-around moisture and enhanced lift.
Overall, looking at rainfall amounts between 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch with localized areas receiving up to 1 inch. Highs on Sunday are a bit more tricky, ultimately depending on how far north the warm front makes it. General thinking is for temps in the mid 40s to low 50s for NE PA and N NJ, mid 50s around Philly and S NJ and low to mid 60s across the portions of the Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday night should see any lingering rain lift out of the area by the first half of the night as warm advection shifts offshore and the associated upper trough passes by, with winds both at the surface and aloft turning westerly. The best chance to see measurable rainfall for the first part of Sunday night will be areas north of Philadelphia, but PoPs after 00z are only around 40-60%.
Skies should clear as drier air filters in, but lows will be fairly mild, with upper 30s/low 40s for most of the region.

Monday will be a dry day with at least some partial sunshine for most, with seasonable highs mainly in the 50s. Clouds may start to increase, especially by the afternoon as the next upper-level trough tracks quickly eastward across the Appalachians. However, that system will lack much moisture, and the surface low will be weak and stay well south of our region, keeping us dry. Skies may even clear out Monday night. Will have to keep an eye out for some patchy fog in sheltered valleys Sunday night and Monday night, but overall enough westerly winds should limit the fog from being too widespread or dense.

Expect a dry day Tuesday though any sunshine may be limited to the morning hours, and from around southern NJ to the Delmarva. Another shortwave will approach, potentially bringing some unsettled weather, but any precipitation looks to hold off until Tuesday night. Highs will be a touch below normal, with low to mid 40s along and west of the Fall Line with mid to upper 40s from the I-95 corridor to the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Some light precipitation is possible to start the long term period but the rest of the week after Wednesday looks to be dry.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, guidance has remained consistent with the consensus that another wave of upper-level energy develops and re-amplifies the upper-level trough and begins to dig it out of the midwest and move it eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard.
Associated with this re-deepening trough is a surface clipper system that quickly progresses out of the Great Lakes region and into the Mid-Atlantic during this timeframe. The passage of this system looks to possibly provide a quick hit of precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly for the southern half of the area. This system has been trending colder and drier so PoPs remain around 40- 50 percent at best in Delmarva with lower chances further north. The colder air does mean though that some snow could be mixed in across much of southeastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey, particularly closer to daybreak Wednesday when surface temperatures are at their coldest.

The surface low then passes offshore later on Wednesday and model guidance suggests that it will rapidly strengthen once it does so.
However, guidance continues to suggest that it will be far enough offshore to result in a minimal effect on the weather in our region.
At this time, the main impacts look to be slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions, particularly closer to the shore.

Strong high pressure and upper level ridging look to build back in for Thursday and Friday. Some guidance is suggesting a weak upper- level trough/surface low may pass through at the end of next week but this remains highly uncertain at this time. Otherwise, a warming trend in temperatures back to around normal is expected.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR cigs with LIFR/VLIFR visbys from FG. For the first half of the period, winds will be light and variable if not calm across all locations. A more sustained NE/ENE flow around 5 knots with -RA/RA should develop across most locations by 6z or just afterwards. Winds should pick up to around 7-12 kts out of the ENE/E before 12z for most locations. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR expected for much of the period. LIFR cigs expected to stick around through much of the day, as well as reduced visbys from lingering FG/BR. RA is expected to cease sometime in the afternoon for all sites except KRDG/KABE. Winds E at 8-13 kts. Gusts of 20 kts possible at KACY. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...sub-VFR conditions possible, especially in the first half of the night, as rain lifts out. West/Southwest winds around 5- 10 kt. Low confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Westerly winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with light rain. Some snow mixed in is possible Wednesday morning. Winds around 5 knots or less Tuesday night increasing to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots on Wednesday. Low confidence.

Thursday...VFR. Westerly winds around 10 knots with gust up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for ANZ430-431- 451>455 through 7AM EST Sunday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for ANZ450 until 7AM EST Sunday.

Periods of light to moderate rain develop late tonight and taper off into Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds will continue through about midnight. Winds will then gradually become NE-E around 10 kt by Sunday morning and become E-SE winds while increasing to 15- 20 kt by Sunday afternoon. Seas of 3-5 feet.

There may be a few localized gusts near 25 kt between Sandy Hook and Atlantic City Sunday afternoon as well, however confidence is not high enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Small chance (20-40%) of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Westerly winds around 15-20 kt, gusting in the low 20s.
Seas 3 to 4 feet, though a brief period of 5 foot seas possible off the New Jersey coast.

Monday...No marine headlines anticipated. Westerly winds around 15- 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Monday Night...SCA conditions possible (~50%) as westerly winds around 20 kt and gusts nearing 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Northwesterly winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2 feet.

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Westerly winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas of 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions possible. Northwest to north winds around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots, particularly Wednesday night. Seas of 2 to 4 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for NJZ014>027.
DE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for DEZ001>004.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Betterton
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:16 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:48 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Betterton, Maryland, Tide feet

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:04 AM EST     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EST     1.67 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:02 PM EST     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dover AFB, DE,