Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Betterton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 3:18 AM EST (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 2:20PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1237 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain through the night.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 1237 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the northern plains during the first half of the week, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Betterton, MD
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location: 39.37, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 210311 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1011 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build into the region through Wednesday before gradually weakening through late week. Low pressure will arrive on Saturday bringing the next round of precipitation to the area. This system will depart the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Winds will continue to fall through the rest of the overnight hours and will eventually decouple north of a boundary. Both the HRRR and NAMNest only drag the boundary to TTN before starting to slowly lift back north. Thus, there's really high bust potential in the temperature forecast because of the winds go calm over the Pine Barrens, expect rapid radiational cooling and temps to fall into the single digits. I tend to think that solution is the one that will play out so I've kept forecast lows on the cold side of the coldest guidance. It should be a chilly one this evening.

Previous discussion . A cold afternoon in progress despite plenty of sunshine. An upper- level trough will continue to shift east of New England into this evening. Another upper-level trough with a impressive mid level low center in the mid- Mississippi Valley this afternoon will continue to dive southeastward through tonight. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge entering the western Plains this afternoon and tonight will gradually push strong surface high pressure eastward. We therefore remain within a northerly flow regime on the east side of the surface high.

While the center of the surface high is well to our west through tonight, a tightened pressure gradient remains across our region. This along with vertical mixing is resulting in a gusty wind this afternoon, adding a wind chill factor. Despite this setup, it looks like many areas will at least partially decouple tonight. This should occur more and sooner in the sheltered areas (i.e. NJ Pine Barrens). While it will be a very cold night (widespread teens and some single digits), the temperature trend will depend on the winds. We weighted the low temperatures much closer to the colder guidance, especially in the typically colder locales, as the winds diminish along with a lack of clouds. The low-level air mass is very dry which also assist in getting temperatures colder. There could be some mainly high level clouds in parts of the area toward daybreak especially in the Pocono region, however this should not have any significant impacts on the temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. An upper-level trough will dominate the East through Tuesday, with this being comprised of two troughs. One of which amplifies once again across New England and the second one slides across the southeast states. These will have little affect on our sensible weather as strong high pressure still centered well to our west slides closer but does extend into our area. While the pressure gradient is forecast to be still present, the overall mixing and flow is weaker and therefore less wind is expected compared to today (Monday).

It will be another cold day, with just slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures compared to this afternoon (Monday). We used mostly a MOS blend with continuity for the high temperatures. Lots of sunshine expected, although some mainly high level clouds may occur at times in some areas given the presence of the aformentioned troughs aloft north and south of us.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A relatively benign pattern is in store synoptically through the latter half of the week with the next system forecast to impact the area over the weekend. Upper troughing will pass to our south and east through mid-week so north to northwesterly flow will prevail aloft leaving high pressure in place at the surface and weak low to mid-level flow. As the high pressure drifts slowly eastward and more centered across the coast, it will weaken allowing for a general warming trend through the end of the week as the airmass modifies. The period will start with temperatures within a few degrees of normal then will be 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday into Saturday. Expect mainly clear but hazy skies through this period. Would not be surprised if we see a few nights/mornings with areas of fog or freezing fog and heavy frost given the stagnant airmass and clear skies, espousal Wednesday night and Thursday night.

By midday Friday, a closed upper low will be making its way across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley then eventually toward the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. At the surface, a 2 part low pressure system will be approaching the region from the south and west. The initial low across the Ohio Valley will weaken then the secondary low lifting north from the Gulf and across the Carolinas will become dominant and intensify as it moves up the coast toward the Mid-Atlantic. This low is forecast to briefly stall out over our forecast area Saturday night then move slowly offshore on Sunday.

Clouds will be increasing from the west from this system throughout the day Friday. Precipitation is then forecast to move in generally from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning, perhaps even before daybreak. Guidance still differs on the timing and strength/coverage of this system with the GFS being the fastest as of the 12Z suite. Can't rule out a brief period of snow/sleet across the entire area at precip onset (timing dependent), but this looks largely like a rain event for the I-95 corridor and south/east. The surface low will be tracking directly over the area and warm air advection will be strong aloft and near the surface. Farther north, a more prolonged period of wintry precip is probable, potentially leading to some travel impacts on Saturday into early Sunday. However, it currently appears that most of the area (especially south of the Lehigh Valley and NW NJ) will see a transition over to all rain Saturday evening and overnight as the low pressure center is basically right over the forecast area. The low will be exiting the area on Sunday and precip chances will diminish generally from west to east through the day.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of the overnight . VFR SKC. North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots in the evening, then becoming light and variable at several terminals. High confidence on SKC; moderate confidence on how quick the winds diminish.

Tuesday . VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming northwesterly around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday night through Thursday night . VFR. Mostly clear skies with winds 5 kts or less favoring and northwesterly direction. High confidence.

Friday through Friday night . VFR with clouds increasing and ceilings decreasing. Winds becoming easterly around 5 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. A cold northwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday, however it will also be weakening some. Some downward trend in the surface winds are noted this afternoon, however gusts to about 25 knots will continue at least into this evening. Given trends, opted to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay. We will continue the advisory for the NJ/DE Atlantic coastal waters (through midnight) for now, although this may be able to be cancelled early (seas are already down to 5 feet). For Tuesday, the conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria within a continued north- northwest flow regime.

Outlook .

Tuesday night through Thursday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Fair weather with winds northerly around 5-10 kts.

Friday through Friday night . Initially fair weather and northerly winds around 5 kts then building seas with winds becoming easterly and increasing overnight to 15-20 kts. Conditions nearing SCA criteria by daybreak Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . Deal/Gorse/O'Hara Short Term . Gorse Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . Gorse/Staarmann/Deal Marine . Gorse/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi55 min 27°F 39°F1031.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 16 mi55 min 23°F 39°F1031 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 28 mi55 min 25°F 43°F1030.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi49 min 26°F 1031.3 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi61 min 26°F 1030.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 28 mi55 min 25°F 39°F1030.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi55 min 27°F 40°F1030.7 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi49 min 29°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi49 min 28°F 1030.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi49 min 25°F 41°F1030.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 39 mi19 min N 19 G 20 28°F 40°F1031.3 hPa (+0.3)8°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 45 mi55 min 23°F 40°F1030.8 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD10 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair14°F9°F81%1031.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair21°F12°F68%1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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N9NW6CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4CalmNW13
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2 days agoN3CalmCalmE4S3E5SE5S8S8S6S6S6S5S5S6--SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Betterton, Maryland
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Betterton
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM EST     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EST     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.10.10.30.60.80.80.70.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.40.91.41.71.81.71.41.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:34 AM EST     0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:37 AM EST     1.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:56 PM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     2.18 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:32 PM EST     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.70.71.41.91.91.50.7-1.2-1.8-2.2-2.3-2.1-1.9-1.40.41.62.12.21.91.50.9-0.9-1.3-1.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.