Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairton, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 923 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 923 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will approach the canadian maritimes late today, meanwhile high pressure near the ohio valley will build eastward through tonight. High pressure slides across our area during Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night, then a cold front will move through on Friday. Low pressure will move quickly from the mid-south on Friday night to the canadian maritimes by Sunday night, then high pressure returns to the mid-atlantic early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairton, NJ
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location: 39.38, -75.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kphi.afd.phi.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KPHI 201429 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 929 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS Low pressure will approach the Canadian Maritimes late today, meanwhile high pressure near the Ohio Valley will build eastward through tonight. High pressure slides across our area during Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night, then a cold front will move through on Friday. Low pressure will move quickly from the Mid-South on Friday night to the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday night, then high pressure returns to the Mid-Atlantic early next week.

NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT For the 930 AM update, the axis of a strong upper-level trough is shifting offshore this morning. This feature will continue to support strengthening low pressure well to our east as it tracks toward the Canadian Maritimes through late today. Plenty of cloud cover around this morning as this is trapped under an inversion between about 700 mb and 850 mb. No significant changes were needed with this update, and tweaked the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the current conditions. However, did increase the winds some faster given trends thus far.

Otherwise, as high pressure builds toward the eastern U.S. today, the pressure gradient will increase for some breezy northwest winds.

Decent cold air advection will occur across the area today, but directions are also favorable for some downsloping, which should mitigate the cooling effects to some degree. Additionally, the source region of the incoming surface high is not cold, so temperatures will not stray too much from seasonal averages today.

Operational statistical guidance is (are) in reasonable agreement, so used a blend (including the previous forecast) for highs today.

This should result in temperatures in the 40s for areas north of the I-295 I-195 corridors and low 50s south of there. However, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon, it will feel a little chilly.

Winds will diminish somewhat tonight as high pressure continues its approach to the area; however, this will be a gradual process. Skies will be clearing as large-scale subsidence approaches the region. The question will be if the winds diminish enough for more ideal radiational cooling. Current thinking is that this may indeed be the case for the sheltered valleys north and west of the urban corridor, but may not for the urban heat island and points south and east. Latest forecast incorporates some of the colder guidance northwest of the Fall Line but warmer guidance south and east. It is quite possible the forecast temperatures are not cold enough and warm enough in these respective regions.

SHORT TERM THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A surface ridge will be moving through the region on Thursday with northwest midlevel flow upstream of the departing large- scale trough. A surface low will be translating northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes and adjacent southern Ontario during the period, with downstream (and transient) ridging moving into the Mid-Atlantic. This should keep things generally quiet across the area during the day, with warm advection increasing after the surface ridge moves through the area. Cannot rule out some spotty showers in the Poconos as the surface low races toward the Saint Lawrence Valley late in the night, but think the stronger lift and associated precipitation will stay mostly north of the region.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement that temperatures will be near seasonal averages on Thursday, but temperatures will likely be a little warmer on Thursday night from the previous night as warm advection and resultant cloud cover increase.

LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY Main concerns in the medium-range period are a weak frontal passage on Friday and a more potent system affecting the area this weekend.

A surface low will be racing eastward through southeast Canada and far northern New England on Friday, with an attendant front weakening as it impinges on downstream ridging in the western Atlantic. With the strongest lift well north of the area, think precipitation coverage will be spotty or scattered with precipitation amounts light. Warm advection in advance of the front will keep thermal profiles much too warm for anything other than liquid precipitation. Best chances for precipitation are during the afternoon on Friday, but did lower PoPs considerably from the previous forecast given the dry-looking model output in general. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages on Friday, but should lower quickly on Friday night given a transient high moving through the area (and rapidly clearing skies). Went colder than guidance on Friday night given concerns for fairly decent radiational cooling.

Attention turns to a southern-stream system ejecting from the Desert Southwest late this week. As it progresses into the central southern Plains on Friday, a surface low will develop and lift quickly east-northeast into the Mid-South by Friday night. Models generally indicate some phasing with a digging northern-stream vort MAX in vicinity of the Upper Midwest Great Lakes on Saturday, which will act to intensify the large-scale lift and the attendant surface low as it approaches the central Appalachians Saturday night. Widespread rain should develop in the warm-advection regime downstream of the low. As phasing continues on Sunday, there are indications of secondary-low development in the Mid-Atlantic, with fairly decent QPF generated by the strong intensifying lift via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm advection. Consensus of model timing appears to be Saturday night, though there remains some lingering discrepancies among the deterministic model output. Notably, the speed of the system should prevent QPF from getting too extreme, but widespread 0.5-1.0 inch totals appear possible.

Expecting a large chunk of the precipitation to be liquid, but there is some concern about the far northern CWA. Models look a little too warm on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield (and tend to be in the Poconos anyway). Used temperatures a little below guidance for Saturday night (closer to the CMC vs. the GFS), which generates a mix of precipitation near north of I-80 given the forecast timing of the low's passage through the area. Will need to watch this system closely, as colder-than-projected forecasts would suggest decent potential for some wintry precipitation on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.

Some wraparound precipitation may linger into Sunday, but PoPs rapidly decrease during the day as the low lifts well northeast of the area. However, Sunday may end up warmer than Saturday given favorable downsloping and improving skies.

High pressure builds into the area early next week, which should result in mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.

AVIATION 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR with ceilings 4000-15000 feet. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with clouds dissipating. Northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt becoming southwest late. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday... Restrictions (mainly brief) possible with a chance of showers. Southwest winds up to 10 kt on Thursday night increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts on Friday. A switch to west or northwest winds is anticipated late in the day as a cold front moves through. Moderate confidence.

Friday night... MainlyVFR with light winds. Moderate confidence.

Saturday... Light variable winds becoming east or southeast late in the day. Increasing cloudiness, with CIGs lowering approaching MVFR thresholds late in the day. Low confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday... Restrictions likely with rain Saturday night, possibly lingering into Sunday morning.

Improvement is expected by afternoon. Winds backing from east to north Saturday night (generally light) becoming northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts on Sunday. Moderate to high confidence on overall evolution; low confidence on timing.

MARINE No changes to the small craft advisory in effect for Delaware Bay this afternoon this evening and for the Atlantic waters this afternoon through the overnight hours.

Northwest winds will ramp up to around or slightly above advisory criteria by this afternoon as the pressure gradient increases between low pressure well offshore and high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. The strongest winds are expected late today into this evening before diminishing by daybreak Thursday. Conditions are expected to be sub-advisory on Delaware Bay after midnight.

Seas are expected to be around 2 to 4 feet, possibly maxing out around 5 feet on the open waters well off the coast.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Friday and Friday night... Marginal advisory conditions possible as southwest winds increase in advance of a cold front, becoming northwest by Friday night. Winds should diminish by Saturday morning.

Saturday... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Saturday night... Advisory conditions possible with a good chance of rain and associated visibility restrictions.

Sunday... Advisory conditions possible, with rain generally moving out.

PHI WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES PA... None.

NJ... None.

DE... None.

MD... None.

MARINE... Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis... CMS Gorse Near Term... CMS Gorse Short Term... CMS Long Term... CMS Aviation... CMS Gorse Marine... CMS
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 9 mi62 min NNW 11 G 12 45°F 49°F1016.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 21 mi62 min 45°F 48°F1014.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi62 min NNW 11 G 13 45°F 49°F1015.3 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi56 min 1015.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi62 min 45°F 48°F1015.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi62 min NW 6 G 8 45°F 47°F1015.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi56 min NW 11 G 15 44°F 47°F1014.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 39 mi62 min 44°F 45°F1014.9 hPa
BDSP1 42 mi56 min 43°F 1015.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi74 min W 2.9 40°F 1015 hPa35°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 42 mi56 min NW 11 G 13 46°F 47°F1015.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 44 mi56 min 43°F 50°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ9 mi50 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast45°F32°F61%1015.2 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi1.8 hrsWNW 610.00 miOvercast44°F34°F69%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIV

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW555W6NW5W6W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW3N5NW3NW5NW5NW7N8
1 day agoN10N8N7N8N5N5N5N4CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW3CalmW4CalmW4W8W3W6
2 days agoNE14NE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Tindalls Wharf, Cohansey River, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Tindalls Wharf
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Wed -- 06:03 AM EST     5.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:21 PM EST     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.22.53.84.75.35.55.13.82.41.40.70.61.12.43.95.15.86.264.93.52.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newport Landing, Nantuxent Creek, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Newport Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:59 AM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:14 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.42.43.13.63.83.52.71.91.10.70.40.51.22.43.33.94.24.13.42.51.710.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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