Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Edgewood, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday July 12, 2020 3:33 PM EDT (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:59PMMoonset 12:01PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 143 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 143 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary boundary will remain near or just east of the waters through Monday. The front will slide eastward into the atlantic by Monday night as high pressure builds over the eastern united states for the duration of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgewood, MD
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location: 39.39, -76.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 121850 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stationary front will remain near the Chesapeake Bay through Monday before pushing offshore. High pressure will then build across the area for much of the work week, with a cold front approaching by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Scattered showers have developed across much of the region -- even as far east as the western DC metro. More robust, and widespread, activity has formed to the north over south central Pennsylvania. We remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds the main threat. Notably, the longwave trough axis is still well to the west, so neither CAPE nor shear are especially robust, but both are in play. Should be fairly cloudy and muggy overnight, with a low in downtown DC that may not drop below 75.

The trough axis swings across overnight, so it is prudent to maintain a chance of showers all night long. However, with the loss of daytime heating, instability will obviously drop substantially.

I am less enthusiastic about Monday than I was when I walked in the door this morning. Hi-res models are now keying on activity to our south, and the trough axis is forecast to be to our east by afternoon So will we even see thunderstorms. let alone have a risk of severe weather? I'm just not all that confident right now. Will maintain chance PoPs for now and continue to closely monitor future model runs. Given the morning cloud cover, I have lowered highs into the mid/upper 80s for most areas on Monday. Yes, even in DC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. With the trough axis past, the remainder of the short term period looks dry and fairly quiet. Still seasonably hot, with lows mainly in the 60s and highs Tuesday in the upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Upper level ridging over the Ohio Valley will continue to shift eastward Wednesday, resulting in surface high pressure dominating the region. This will induce a warming trend throughout much of the long term, resulting in hot/humid conditions persisting. With a upper level westerly flow, but southerly flow at the surface, cannot rule out a stray shower or storm over the mountains due to orographic lifting. However the ridging should suppress most activity.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through the weekend as the jet stream becomes displaced well to our north; with upper level ridging amplifying over the southern CONUS. While conditions are expected to remain mostly dry, cannot rule out chances for pop-up showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon via convective heating. Also given the synoptic pattern, subtle shortwaves will have to be monitored which could aid in the development of potentially stronger storms.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the terminals this afternoon, and cannot rule out a shower at a terminal anytime tonight either. Visibility restrictions with the showers/storms are too uncertain to include in the TAF at this time but could be amended as radar trends evolve. Patchy fog overnight looks most likely at CHO/MRB but could occur elsewhere if rain gets that far east and winds go calm.

Trended toward a less cloudy forecast for Monday afternoon, but there is a risk of an isolated shower or storm, mainly over the major terminals (IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN).

High pressure builds in starting Monday night, with VFR expected through at least Wednesday. Could start seeing popup showers and storms again by Thursday.

MARINE. Showers and storms are possible over the waters both this evening and tonight, and again Monday. This may require the need for Special Marine Warnings on Monday afternoon, but the confidence in that happening has decreased, especially over the northern waters.

High pressure builds in starting Monday night. As it shifts offshore, the southerly return flow could channel up the Bay, causing SCA level wind gusts starting Thursday. This is also when the pop-up showers and storms will return.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE SHORT TERM . JE LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . JE MARINE . JE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi51 min S 6 G 9.9 85°F 83°F1008.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 18 mi45 min SSE 14 G 17 84°F 1007.4 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi57 min SSE 11 G 16
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 11 86°F 80°F1007.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi45 min 84°F
CPVM2 28 mi69 min 84°F 67°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 30 mi45 min 87°F 1007.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi33 min SE 13 G 14 83°F 82°F1008.7 hPa (-1.3)66°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 11 87°F 78°F1007.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi45 min 84°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi51 min 86°F 1008.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 48 mi123 min SSE 5.1 1008 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD7 mi95 minSSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds86°F62°F45%1008 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD9 mi39 minSE 11 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F69°F55%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8W8W11W5W8W6W5CalmW5W3SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW6S4SW6S8S12S11
1 day agoN10NW12
G19
NW7NW7W7--SW5W3SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW7SW5S8S9SW6W9
2 days agoE5S4SE7SE7SE3CalmE3CalmE3E5NE6NE6N6NE7N5N7N8N5N7N6N6N8N6--

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Bush River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:37 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.61.51.41.210.90.80.911.21.41.51.51.41.210.80.60.50.50.70.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.