Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Edgewood, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:32PM Friday April 3, 2020 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 139 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft... Except around 1 ft or less near the mouth of the susquehanna.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 139 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley through through Sunday morning. A weak cold front will follow Sunday afternoon. The front will stall nearby Monday into Tuesday before a low pressure system approaches from the midwest Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgewood, MD
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location: 39.39, -76.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 031423 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1023 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure southeast of Cape Cod will loop cyclonically back out to sea through tonight. High pressure will build in from the Midwest tonight through Sunday morning. A weak cold front will follow Sunday night. The front will stall nearby Monday into Tuesday before returning north as a warm front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. /14Z Update/ At 14Z, the storm just east of the Gulf of Maine is retrograding southeast towards Cape Cod. The 06Z ECMWF MLSP backs the low's heading to due-south this afternoon, and this will keep rainfall northeast of our CWA. This is corroborated by guidance showing downward QPF trends from the latest HRRR runs, the 06Z ECMWF, and the 00Z HREF ensemble mean QPF. So I have modified POPs downward for this afternoon and evening in those areas that had isolated showers. Can't rule out patchy drizzle in the higher hills in NE Maryland, as increased confidence that ceilings will lower and become mostly cloudy this afternoon generally in the NE half of our CWA, with a sharp cloud demarcation roughly oriented along the Potomac River. The increase in cloud cover should also temper wind gusts in that region./End Update/

The 12Z KIAD sounding has winds 35-40KTS in the boundary layer this morning. The inversion busted rapidly by 13Z across the region, with numerous wind gusts between 30-40MPH in the western suburbs of the Balt/Wash Metro Areas. Winds will temper a bit this afternoon as the pressure gradient aloft slackens. Inverted V soundings approaching super adiabatic, along with gusty winds and dry surface conditions, you might see a dust devil or two in the Shenandoah Valley during the midday hours.

/Remainder of this portion of AFD unchanged/ A large, vertically- stacked oceanic low off the coast of southern New England this morning will drift southwestward today, then pivot out to sea tonight. At the surface, a bent- back warm frontal zone will approach the Mid- Atlantic from the northeast while weakening as the aforementioned low takes on more a more barotropic structure (lacking cohesive temperature gradients and fronts).

The cloud shield associated with the offshore storm is creeping southwestward per latest satellite images. This cloud cover will continue its trek toward the local area through the day. A northwest to southeast ribbon of middle-level vorticity (spin) arcing from western Maryland and eastern West Virginia into central Virginia (roughly along a line from Cumberland to Charlottesville) will likely mark the westward expansion of increasing cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to range from the middle 50s over northeastern Maryland (where clouds move in first) to the middle 60s over portions of central Virginia.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue today between the offshore low and high pressure building in from the Midwest. The strongest winds are likely from mid to late morning into early this afternoon when the gradient and lower-level jet are strongest. Thereafter, moisture advection and increasing clouds will probably cause winds to level off or even decrease a bit during the mid to late afternoon (when mixing is typically at its peak). The strongest (albeit still weak) moisture advection in the 900-700 mb layer will reside near and east of Interstate 95. A few sprinkles or showers are possible as a result, though measurable rain will likely be hard to come by due to dry air near the surface.

Clouds and any spotty shower activity will retreat eastward this evening as the low pulls away. Winds will subside as well.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Fair weather is expected this weekend as high pressure builds overhead. Winds will be light and temperatures will be on a general warming trend. Highs should be into the 60s both days, possibly approaching 70 in spots on Sunday.

Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes. A few showers may accompany the front Sunday afternoon and evening, but coverage should be spotty at best with a lack of appreciable lift.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The first half of next week will be dominated by warm weather as ridge pattern dominates over the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal zone will be in the vicinity during the first part of next week with little or no impacts expected. The Euro is fastest among the global models showing ridge pattern flattening by the middle of next week. By Thu morning, rest of the global models has trended with Euro from 24 hrs ago showing an upper low digging across the Northeast U.S. with trof axis crossing the area late Thu night with associated frontal zone crossing the area sometime Thu although exact timing is still uncertain. Given northern stream dominance don't expect a lot of precip with front. Very chilly weather will follow for the end of next week with high temps likely struggling to reach 50F during the day with frost potential in the morning.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Gusty northwesterly winds continue through this afternoon, peaking between 14-19Z with a few gusts over 30 knots possible. Winds gradually subside this evening by midnight.

VFR conditions are expected this weekend with high clouds developing Saturday night into Sunday. A shower is possible later Sunday as a weak cold front approaches. Winds should be light and variable for much of the weekend.

No sig wx expected Monday through Tuesday.

MARINE. Gusty northwesterly winds of 25 to 30 knots through this afternoon. 12Z KIAD sounding has 35 kts in the middle of the mixed layer, so a few gusts near gale force are likely before noon along the tidal Potomac. Based on this, a Marine Weather Statement for occasional gale gusts has been issued through this morning. Winds will begin to subside tonight, dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria Saturday through Sunday.

Light winds below 10 kt Monday through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER. As close to Red Flag Warning without pulling the trigger today in the southwestern third of our CWA, including Charlottesville and the central Shenandoah Valley. The sustained winds reaching 20 mph in the VA Plan is the limiting factor, as there is some baginess in the surface pressure pattern in the lee of the mountains on NW flow; however, frequent gusts to 25 mph can be expected as the pressure pattern aloft is tighter, with 925 mb winds from the 12Z HRRR 35-40KTS.

The fuels and RH will reach criteria this morning, but RH should be on the increase in the afternoon. Elevated fire wx conditions are expected today as NW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph continues to dry out fuels. Max_Rh is very low this morning with Rh values as low as 24% at KCHO. 10-FM may drop in the 3-5% if these lower Rh values verify. Anticipating Min_Rh to drop to near 20% in the SPS area and potentially as low as 15% in Albermarle and Nelson Counties. Quick moisture recovery is expected by this evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Negative anomalies up to a foot below normal will persist through tonight, then water levels will begin to rise Saturday as water piled up over the lower bay starts retreating as winds slacken. Minor coastal flooding seems likely by high tide Sun afternoon and evening.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-531- 535-536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532-533- 540>542. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543.

SYNOPSIS . Lee/DHOF NEAR TERM . DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . Lee/LFR/DHOF MARINE . Lee/LFR/DHOF FIRE WEATHER . Lee/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF/LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi58 min N 20 G 25 53°F 51°F1008.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 18 mi52 min NNW 24 G 30 55°F 1007.7 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi70 min NNW 26 G 33 55°F 1007.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi52 min N 17 G 23 55°F 49°F1008 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi52 min N 12 G 19 52°F 51°F1007.7 hPa
CPVM2 28 mi52 min 54°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 30 mi58 min 59°F 1007.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi40 min WNW 22 G 25 56°F 51°F1009 hPa (-0.5)31°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi52 min NNW 19 G 24 52°F 55°F1006.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi52 min 53°F 51°F1006.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi52 min NW 26 G 31 51°F 1006.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 48 mi130 min NNW 11 1008 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD7 mi1.7 hrsNNW 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast53°F31°F44%1008.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD9 mi46 minNNW 12 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F32°F39%1008.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi46 minno data mi58°F30°F36%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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------NW5NW5NW8W7NW7NW9
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1 day agoN6N9NW4NW5NW7N6CalmNW3CalmCalmN13
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2 days agoE7E7----E10E6--E8E11
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E7E6NE7E8NE10NE9NE8NE8NE7NE8NE9--N7N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Bush River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:29 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.911.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.71.11.31.51.51.41.210.70.50.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.