Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:33 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 281956 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night as a cold front crosses the area. High pressure will build in for midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Cumulus across the region will dissipate with loss of heating leaving just some thin cirrus for tonight. South winds will diminish early this evening but persist at 5 to 10 mph overnight. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday afternoon along a pre-frontal trough. There is some uncertainty how quickly this activity will move into the forecast area, but it will affect western counties before the day is through. Along with this timing uncertainty, there is some question about how unstable it will be. It seems likely that CAPE will be below 1000 J/kg but whether it is close to that number or only a few hundreds will determine whether there will be any strong storms since better bulk shear will be spreading over the unstable area. Wind would be the primary concern. Confidence at this stage is rather low but will keep an eye on it.

Instability will wane in the evening, so the potential for any stronger storms will end. But an axis of showers and thunderstorms will progress east through Monday night. There could be a secondary axis along the actual cold front that moves in late.

Temperatures will be back in the lower to mid 80s in most places, although clouds may thicken early enough to keep readings in the upper 70s west of I-75. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Guidance has slowed a bit with the exit of the shortwave trough.
Consensus now has the trough axis lingering Tuesday morning, and not clearing our eastern counties until near midday. Still, we will likely see a decrease in cloud cover heading into the afternoon with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s by 4-5 PM.

Westerly to northwesterly winds will briefly visit the Ohio Valley behind the front Tuesday afternoon into the early evening... then flow becomes southerly again for Wednesday as warmer than normal temperatures return. Mid-level heights increase Wednesday as well, with ridging becoming more amplified on Thursday ahead of the next digging mid-level trough over the Central Plains. Though humidity will not be particularly high on Thursday, temperatures may reach into the upper 80s based on the NBM mean. Have blended this direction since the NBM's calibrated high puts us below the 25th percentile of the blend's members.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday with the arrival of the next frontal system. How quickly this system clears the region is uncertain based on the latest guidance. For this reason, have lingered PoPs through the weekend to some degree. Showers will not be occurring the entire period of course... but there could be a reinforcing trough pass through the Great Lakes sometime late in the weekend.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Southerly winds with gusts at or above 20 kt will continue through the early part of the period. Winds will decrease to 5 to 10 kt overnight but then increase again on Monday with gusts at or above 20 kt again.

VFR will persist. Cumulus across the region will dissipate with the loss of heating. Mid clouds will spread into the region towards or a bit after 12Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. IFR ceilings possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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