Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Bragg, CA

DISCUSSION
High pressure continues for northwestern California with a weather system moving by to the north of the area on Monday.
This system will have very subtle affects on northern California such as: slightly cooler temperatures and some coastal stratus.
Tuesday, this system moves east with a stronger trough approaching the area by mid week. For early this week, afternoon highs will still be above normal, but muted by overnight valley cloud cover.
Inland valley fog with afternoon clearing is expected to continue for both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Slightly less coverage for low clouds will be expected each day as it dries out. Along with the potential lack of low clouds in inland valleys, there is a very slight chance for some frost in the colder valleys Monday and Tuesday mornings. However, this does not look very likely. High clouds will begin to stream over the area Tuesday with winds beginning to turn southerly by Tuesday evening.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the next weather system starts approaching the area. South to southeast winds are expected to begin increasing very early Wednesday morning, which may help diminish fog and low clouds. Current models show the rain starting after 18Z (10AM) Wednesday for most areas. More than likely it will start closer to early or mid afternoon. A period of moderate to heavy rain is expected from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. One to three inches of rain is expected early Thursday morning. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values remain fairly strong, there is still a 50 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 500 kg/m/s. This may be enough to generate some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas, but not much else beyond that. Once again, the rivers are not expected to see much of a rise with this system.

Strong winds are expected with this system, the GFS has a low level jet at 925 mb around 40 to 50 kt off the coast. There is some ensemble support for this, but the clusters show fairly big discrepancies making confidence low on the winds. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected in wind prone areas. Local gusts as high as 60 mph could occur, especially around the Cape Mendocino headlands.

Thursday afternoon and into the evening, the upper level trough is expected to move overhead bringing showers to the area and lower snow levels. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter with these showers, although a few on the North Coast could produce locally heavy rain. This colder storm will bring the potential for lower snow levels. Currently the models show them dropping to around 4,000 feet and possibly a bit lower. Currently this is expected to be above the main highway passes except for Hwy 3 at Scott Mountain summit which could see several inches of snow. This will likely bring snow to many of the higher elevation areas including Horse mountain in Humboldt county.

Friday, snow levels are expected to start to rise as high pressure starts to build in. There may be some light rain or snow produced by overrunning as this builds into the area. Generally drier weather is expected on Saturday before another system starts to move into the area on Sunday. /MKK /JLW



AVIATION
(6Z TAFs)...Aside from a few high clouds streaming across the area, mostly clear skies are being observed. Shallow patchy ground fog is likely again early Monday morning around Humboldt Bay and in the interior valleys. Models are showing higher confidence for a shallow marine layer to return to CEC, with the highest chances between 11Z and 17Z. This may also impact ACV, but confidence is lower. Any ceilings are likely to lift and scatter after 17Z, with VFR conditions likely by the afternoon.
Models are hinting at the return of stratus in the evening, but confidence is low. JB



MARINE
Northerly winds winds increase today, especially in the outer waters south of Cape Mendocino where gusts of 20-25 kts are possible by the afternoon. Winds are forecast to be lighter elsewhere until the evening. A mid-period west swell has filled in and is forecast to peak around 7-8 ft. These will combine with short period seas in the southern waters. North winds spread northward tonight into Tuesday, with gusts of 20 kts possible across the outer waters. These will ease by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves eastward. A system approaches the waters Wednesday, likely returning gale force southerlies by Wednesday afternoon. Steep short period seas and a larger long-period west swell will keep seas elevated for the rest of the work week. JB



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ475.