Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Bragg, CA

DISCUSSION
The last few effects of convective activity fizzled out overnight into the early morning hours near the Trinity horn, Siskiyou and the north valley of Shasta county. This, in all indications, is a precursor to more convective activity to come as collective allowance models and aggregate parameters like CWASP show elevated chances this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. NBM probabilities rise from 12% this afternoon to around 20% by the evening in eastern Trinity and Mendocino mountainous areas bordering the interior counties of Glenn and Tehama. Also including the Yolla Bolly's and northern Lake county. Light rain is possible in the aforementioned areas as well, according to high resolution ensembles and the national blend. That said, this will be localized and sparse in coverage with a slight chance of thunderstorms isolated to the interior eastern periphery, bordering the mountains.

Friday more widespread showers are expected as the trough becomes more of a closed low and moves overhead. The cloud cover is expected to limit surface heating and curb the potential for any thunderstorms. Highs are only expected to be in the 50s in most areas. Much of the area has a 40 to 60 percent chance of seeing more than a tenth of an inch of rain, but only the mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte counties have close to a 50 percent probability of exceeding a half inch. Saturday the upper level low is moving out of the area and few lingering showers are possible.
Saturday night the moisture around is expected to limit the potential for frost, but temperatures will likely drop into the 30s in the interior valleys. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the 50s again with slowly clearing skies. Saturday night is likely going to be the coldest night with lows in the colder areas of the interior dropping into the low to mid 30s. Sunday skies are expected to finally clear fully, but highs are only expected to be in the 60s. /MKK /EYS



AVIATION
Northerly winds have backed off this morning at KCEC but are expected to return with gusts by the afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions through the TAF period. Offshore winds have helped clear out KACV this morning, improving flight categories to VFR as 1500ft ceilings have eroded, though coastal stratus lingers in lower elevations and decoupled valleys. Coastal stratus has made its way into interior Mendocino and could impact flight conditions at KUKI if it advects into the valley. As of 12z the mountains are still blocking the progression.



MARINE
Gales continue across the waters near the capes and beyond 10 miles but are expected to end at 3pm Wednesday and this looks on track. Tonight and Thursday the winds are expected to continue to slowly diminish. These are expected to the be the lightest late Thursday night and Friday morning as a weather system moves by to the north. There will likely be a short time where they are southerly although the models are struggling to resolve the exact timing on this. Friday night and into the weekend it looks like northerly winds will return. At this point it doesn't look like the winds will be gale force, but this may change as it comes into range of the high resolution models. MKK/TRN



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ107-108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-455.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-475.