Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Absecon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:07PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:06 PM EST (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:51PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 848 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain or snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 848 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A clipper system will cross from ontario into new england through Friday, bringing a cold front to our region. Low pressure will remain across eastern canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper mississippi valley and great lakes and eventually into our area by Sunday. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the mid atlantic through Sunday. A low pressure system will pass through the ohio valley Monday before a secondary low develops and become dominant south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the area later Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Absecon, NJ
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location: 39.42, -74.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 220210 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 910 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A clipper system will cross from Ontario into New England through Friday, bringing a cold front to our region. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes and eventually into our area by Sunday. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. A low pressure system will pass through the Ohio Valley Monday before a secondary low develops and become dominant south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. High Pressure then builds into the area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Skies cleared out across much of the region, except for the southern Poconos and far northern New Jersey, and with light winds, radiational cooling has allowed for temps to drop off rapidly. Will lower overnight lows by several degrees as a result.

Still cannot rule out some flurries across portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey as a short wave/vorticity impulse moves across the region and lapse rates steepen in combination with a slight increase in low-mid level moisture. Accumulating snow is not expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday will start off fairly quiet, but things could become more active by late morning into the afternoon and evening hours. Low pressure will move across New England through the day, which will eventually bring a frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic region. Meanwhile, high pressure remains well to our west across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep a strong pressure gradient in place leading to a steady west to northwest flow across the area and winds could gust 20-30 mph at times on Friday. The other thing to watch out for Friday will be the potential for rain/snow/graupel showers or sprinkles/flurries. Within the west to northwest flow, lapse rates will be moderately steep, while there will be some enhanced moisture across the area. Some enhanced lift from multiple short wave/vorticity impulses and approaching surface boundary could help lead to a slight chance of snow showers/flurries or rain showers/sprinkles Friday into Friday night. This is especially true for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey along and north of the I-78 corridor where lapse rates are steepest and moisture is highest. It would not be out of the question for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow for higher elevations. However, it would also not be surprising to see some flurries/sprinkles make it down to the I-95 corridor and portions of southern New Jersey. This could be another one of those situations where temperatures warm up enough that it will not be true snow showers/flurries for some areas, rather snow pellets/graupel for some areas as the snow partially melts before reaching the ground.

The steep lapse rates pull to our east Friday evening as the frontal boundary moves eastward as well, so any remaining flurries will end during the evening hours Friday. Then strong northwest flow will remain in place across the Mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada, while high pressure moves out of the Upper Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday, and toward the northeast Saturday night. Winds will remain gusty across the area, especially during the day Saturday when gusts could reach 25-35 mph, with locally higher gusts.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Summary . A storm system with wintry precipitation will be possible Monday PM into Tuesday, but details remain highly uncertain. Generally cool and quiet in the remainder of the extended, although another storm system may approach the area in the Thursday timeframe.

Synoptic Overview . The extended begins with Canadian High Pressure sprawled across much of the eastern US and, as you might expect, mid-lvl confluence overtop this feature due to the configuration of upstream ridging and a downstream closed low. A weak northern branch system will crash into this High Sunday night, weakening it slightly, but shifting it slightly eastward. This sets up a bit of a CAD wedge over our region Monday (although not textbook) with generally E-NE low-lvl flow. Meanwhile a deamplifying shortwave will progress towards our area with the SW with system's primary low moving into the vicinity of the Ohio Valley late Monday and then weakening/transferring its energy to a secondary low developing over the Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty still remains on how quickly the interior-tracking primary low weakens and when/how far south the coastal low develops. After this system cold High Pressure will build in from Canada on Wednesday, with perhaps another storm system approaching late week.

Details . Sunday will be cool and dry with highs generally in the low to mid 30s, and dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. Winds will finally begin to relax during the day as the axis of the weakening High moves closer to the area.

The most active period of the extended remains the Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon timeframe when the aformentioned shortwave and complex surface low setup move over the area. 12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members.

In terms of forecast changes, did bump up PoPs in the Monday PM, Tuesday AM period, and actually have likely PoPs over the southern half of the area for this period. Also trended things a bit colder (particularly for Tuesday) as similar to previous forecaster am not buying the more amplified UKMET/CMC solutions given that the hemispheric blocking pattern would tend to in general favor more suppression (although perhaps not enough to keep the system missing us entirely). Since we are still beyond the mesoscale model window (and the upper-level system itself is still offshore the western US), kept ptypes as only rain and snow although in a perfect prog world, most of the scenarios would at least bring some FZRA/IP threat to portions of our area as warm air aloft moves overtop the CAD wedge.

After the system passes on Tuesday, Cold and strong (near 1040mb) Canadian High Pressure builds towards our area on Wed, before another storm system approaches the area Thursday. Given uncertainty with the early week system think generally 20-30 PoPs will suffice at present, given the potential of the late week system being suppressed south of the area.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. West winds generally around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . Mostly VFR, possibly briefly lowering to MVFR for ABE and RDG at times in the morning. There is a slight chance of snow showers or flurries, especially for ABE and RDG, but they were left out of the TAFs at this time as confidence is low in occurrence. West to northwest winds 10-20 knots, gusting 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday night-Saturday night . Mostly VFR, West to northwest winds 5- 10 knots, then increasing to 10-20 knots Saturday, then back to 5-10 knots Saturday night. Winds gusting 20-30 knots with locally higher gusts possible, strongest during the daytime hours Saturday. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds initially 10-15kts gusting up to 20 kt gradually decreasing in the afternoon and then becoming light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday/Tuesday . Deteriorated flight conditions in snow,mix, or rain will be possible over portions of the area Monday into Tuesday but confidence in precip types and timing remains low. Variable winds on Monday, then favoring the NE quarter of the compass on Tuesday. Low confidence.

MARINE. Tonight through Friday night . Small Craft Advisory remains in place through at least Friday night. There may be a lull in wind gusts this evening, before winds increase again overnight and continue into at least Friday night.

The winds will take longer to pick up on the Delaware Bay so that Small Craft Advisory won't start until later tonight but also runs through at least Friday night.

Outlook .

Saturday-Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through Saturday night, with the possibility of Gale force winds possible Saturday.

Sunday-Monday . Generally sub-SCA conditions prevailing.

Monday night/Tuesday . Potential of SCA-lvl winds and seas, but this is dependent upon track and intensity of a low pressure system.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . MPS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Robertson Marine . Carr/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 6 mi66 min 42°F 43°F1004.9 hPa (+0.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 8 mi96 min S 2.9 33°F 26°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 40 mi66 min SSW 5.1 G 8 42°F 41°F1004.5 hPa (+0.0)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 44 mi66 min SW 12 G 13 1005 hPa (+0.0)
44091 46 mi70 min 45°F3 ft
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi66 min SW 9.9 G 12 40°F 39°F1005 hPa (-0.0)
BDSP1 49 mi66 min 38°F 38°F1003.8 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi66 min 38°F 38°F1003.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ5 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4CalmE3SW4Calm--CalmCalmSW5--------W9
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1 day agoSW4CalmSW5SW4CalmS6N3W6SW8W10W11W21
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Tide / Current Tables for Absecon, Absecon Creek, U.S. Hwy. 30 bridge, New Jersey
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Absecon
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:42 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:00 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.93.33.43.12.51.91.410.80.91.31.92.42.93.12.92.31.61.10.70.50.61

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey (4)
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:28 AM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.53.32.82.11.510.70.71.11.82.42.93.23.12.621.30.80.40.40.81.52.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.