Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Absecon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday July 5, 2020 3:51 PM EDT (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered tstms early, then isolated tstms late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A series of surface boundaries will meander across the region through early in the week when high pressure toward the west and prevailing southerly flow begin to take control. A summer-like pattern will then persist throughout the week with scattered showers and Thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm may impact the region later in the week and into next weekend as it moves north from the carolinas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Absecon, NJ
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location: 39.42, -74.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 051941 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 341 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of boundaries will meander through the region, finally pulling northward as a warm front by Tuesday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible through much of the week. These fronts will work northward as a warm front by Tuesday. An area of low pressure will form along the Gulf Coast and work its way towards the Carolinas by late week, possibly impacting us as a coastal storm into the weekend. A cold front is then poised to impact the region Sunday behind this system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Showers and thunderstorms will continue for another couple of hours across southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland for late this afternoon into this evening as the surface trough/frontal boundary drifts offshore. CAPE values are over 2,000-3,000 J/kg in these areas, but shear is marginal, only around 25-30 knots or less due to weak mid level winds. However, with dry mid levels DCAPE values are around 1,000+ J/kg, so some strong gusts could occur. Also, wet-bulb 0 heights are around 10,000-11,000 feet, it would not be surprising to see some small hail. PW remain 1.25-1.50 inches across southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland through the day, so there will continue to be the potential for heavy rainfall.

The surface trough/frontal boundary will drift farther offshore later in the evening and overnight hours, and PW values will continue to lower to 1.00-1.25 inches. With no strong short wave/voticity impulses overnight, a dry forecast is expected overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. On Monday, another backdoor front approaches from the north and settles across the area, while moisture increases as PW values increase to 1.50-1.75 inches. A couple of short waves/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the area, which will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day, especially in the afternoon. CAPE values will be between 2,000- 3,000+ J/kg, but shear continues to be marginal around 25-30 knots or less. However, with dry mid levels, DCAPE values are near 1,000+ J/kg, so some strong gusts could occur. Also, wet-bulb 0 heights are around 10,000-11,000 feet, so hail will also be possible. With the elevated PW values, heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially where storms move slowly.

The backdoor front will remain in place Monday night, but CAPE values drop after sunset. However, there will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area during the evening and overnight. PW values remain around 1.50-1.75 inches, so any showers or possible thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall.

The stalled out frontal boundary will remain across the area during the day Tuesday, but will start lifting northward later in the day into Tuesday night. There will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area, which will continue to lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values will be between 1,500-2,500 J/kg, but shear continues to be weak, only 25 knots or less. However, with dry mid levels DCAPE values are near 1,000+ J/kg, so some strong gusts could occur. Also, wet-bulb 0 heights are around 10,000-11,000 feet, it would not be surprising to see some small hail. With the elevated PW values, heavy rainfall will also be a concern.

The backdoor front will lift northward overnight Tuesday, and CAPE values drop after sunset. However, there will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area during the evening and overnight. PW values remain around 1.50-1.75 inches, so any showers or possible thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A very summer-like pattern continues to hold strong through the upcoming week as the polar jet remains anchored well to the north across the Northern Tier of the country. Weak steering flow associated with a mid-level impulse will begin to organize itself in the form of a surface low by Thursday, with increasing confidence in this low impacting our region as some form of a coastal low by the end of the week and into the early portion of the weekend. A cold front looks to follow this low as a stronger mid-level trough works into the eastern U.S. Highs look to sit near to five degrees or so above average in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the week.

By Wednesday, a surface low will begin to organize beneath a southern stream shortwave perturbation somewhere along the Gulf Coast. This low will slowly work its way north and east toward the Carlina Coast through the end of the workweek. Guidance appears to have a solid handle on this leg of the forecast so far but things begin to tank from this point onward.

Yesterday, we discussed the lack in track agreement, but it appears this has improved but not at the expense of timing agreement. The EC has now come into better agreement on a further westward track taking the low over our region up the East Coast Friday into Saturday, but the GFS now progresses the low even faster, clearing our region by Friday night, yielding almost a 24 hour timing divergence. A large portion of this disagreement appears to center over the wavelength of the incoming synoptic trough over the Midwest. The EC brings a much stronger shortwave trough on the backside of this synoptic trough, something largely missing in the GFS, which keeps a more uniform singly curved trough.

Given these track differences, it is no surprise that a conflict in precipitation forecasts is also occurring. The GFS keeps the bulk of the rainfall in the eastern quadrant of the storm over the Atlantic, but brings heavier rainfall with the approaching cold front associated with the incoming trough to our west. The EC merges these features to our north after the southern low passes overhead, dry- slotting us to a greater extent ahead of the approaching cold front. At this time, anywhere from 1 to 2 inches looks possible across the region, unless significant track changes occur.

By Sunday, the surface low pulls to our north, but guidance seems unsure of the placement of the incoming cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with this front, especially if it trends slower, crossing the region into the afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday look to remain similar with upper 80s to near 90 in the urban corridor. Taking a middle of the road approach, keeping the mention of Chance PoPs through early Saturday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today-this evening . Mostly VFR conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening. We have only included a VCTS in the TAFS as chances and confidence in their occurrence remain too small to include a TEMPO or prevailing group. Winds vary between northeast for northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, to southeast for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.

This evening-Overnight . VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the night. However, patchy fog is likely to develop for many areas late in the night and toward daybreak Sunday. It is also possible that some low clouds may develop as well. Winds will become light and variable overnight.

Monday-Monday night . Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. West-southwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, become light out of the south-southeast during the evening and overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. South-southeast winds 5-10 knots during the day, become light out of the south during the overnight.

Outlook .

Wednesday and Thursday . VFR conditions prevail with temporary restrictions in afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds generally out of the south from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible in stronger showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence.

Friday . MVFR conditions possible with lowering CIGs amidst onshore flow ahead of an approaching surface low to our southwest. East- southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence in timing of this low, however.

MARINE. Tonight-Tuesday night . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook .

Wednesday and Thursday..Sub-advisory conditions are forecast through the end of the workweek. Southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts around 15 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots possible at times each afternoon, especially with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Seas ranging from 2 to 3 feet.

Friday . Sub-advisory conditions anticipated with easterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. However, seas may build to 5 feet, especially across the southern three Atlantic zones.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday. Conditions may become locally moderate today at some beaches across southern New Jersey should southerly flow be a bit stronger than currently forecast. Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds are possible at southern New Jersey and Delaware beaches this afternoon as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tide levels will begin to decrease today, and with winds shifting slightly offshore, only spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with the evening high tide cycle tonight.

Tidal flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . MPS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Davis Aviation . Davis/Robertson Marine . Davis/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Staff Equipment . Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 6 mi58 min 76°F 77°F1014.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 8 mi82 min N 8 86°F 1015 hPa76°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 40 mi58 min SSE 8 G 13 78°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 44 mi58 min S 5.1 G 7 1015.3 hPa
44091 46 mi86 min 75°F2 ft
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi58 min 83°F 1014.9 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi58 min 92°F 1013.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi58 min 97°F 81°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ5 mi2 hrsSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F63%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE7SE5S6S3S4SE4S5S4S3SW3S3CalmS4S5SW5SW9SW6W53S9SW8S9
1 day agoSE7SE5SE5SE7S6SE4SE5NE7SE5N3N4N7N4NE5NE5N4NE5NE4E5NE7NE5E53SE5
2 days agoE8--N6E5SW3SW3W4W4W4W5NW5NW3NW4NW3CalmNW5NW7N9N8N76SW6W5
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Tide / Current Tables for Absecon, Absecon Creek, U.S. Hwy. 30 bridge, New Jersey
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Absecon
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:55 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:41 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:59 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.90.8-0.1-0.30.11.12.23.23.943.62.81.810.300.41.42.73.94.75.14.7

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey (4)
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:12 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.2-0.3-0.10.71.82.93.84.243.32.31.30.50.10.212.23.54.65.35.34.63.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.