Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:20PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 7:22 AM EST (12:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 638 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build north of the region through Friday morning. Low pressure will pass southeast of the area Saturday. High pressure will build south of the region for the first half of next week. Small craft advisory conditions are likely Saturday night through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 291141 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 641 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue through much of the rest of the week before a low pressure system tracks through the Carolinas on Friday and then well offshore to the northeast by Sunday. High pressure returns behind that system to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The strato-cu remain locked in place but based on BUFkit soundings and the CU Rule, the difference between T_850 and Td_sfc I think we should start to see some breaks in the cloud cover between 14-16z. from north to south. I trended the sky cover in this direction but it wasn't a significant change. The going forecast is in good shape otherwise with no other changes needed. Have a good day!

Previous discussion . Plenty of clouds remain across the area this morning. This is keeping the overnight lows milder than what would normally occur in late January. Readings in the mid/upper 30s in many areas with some low 40s in srn DE. These readings are closer to what the normal high temperatures for this date would be.

Looking forward, high pressure will begin to influence the weather more today with the temperatures inversion aloft becoming weaker and more mixing occurring. This should help dissipate some of the clouds later this morning. We, therefore, expect mostly cloudy this morning and then mostly sunny by afternoon. Highs will react by climbing into the mid/upper 40s across the SE areas and low 40s N/W. Winds will be mostly from the N at 5 to 10 mph.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/. High pressure will continue to move east across Ontario and into Quebec tonight. A dry and seasonably cool NE flow around the high will maintain fair weather tonight. Since there will be fewer clouds than recent nights, the lows will be colder. Across the southern Poconos and north NJ this means lows in the teens while other areas will see readings drop into the low/mid 20s. Winds will be light.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Quiet sensible weather continues through the day Thursday as broad dome of high pressure pushes southeast out of Canada into New England. This sets up generally northerly flow across the region but the winds will mainly be light and at times variable under mostly cloudy skies. The pattern starts to change Friday night as a developing low pressure system starts to deepen as it tracks from the Gulf Coast through the Carolinas. Trends in the guidance and ensemble means continue to point to the system becoming a fish storm rather than one that would impact the region. Portions of DelMarVa and southern New Jersey could see a glancing blow of precip but thermal profiles suggest that it would be a rain event as the GFS soundings across DelMarVa show a melting layer greater than 1000 feet.

Offshore winds will start to ramp up as the system pulls away on Sunday as the pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high pressure system increase. Sensible weather conditions should be dry on Sunday with little in the way of precip expected under mostly cloudy skies and temps in the 40s.

High pressure makes a brief return before another progressive low pressure system tracks through the southern plains into the Mid Atlantic bringing rain showers.

Temps throughout the extended will be normal to above normal with highs in the 40s through the weekend warming to the 50s to start next week. Low's follow the same trajectory with temps staying above normal warming into the low 40s by early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR expected thru the day. A shield of clouds across the area early will break up thru the morning and skies should become SCT by afternoon. The timing of when this will happen is not certain and it probably the biggest TAF fcst challenge today. My fcst is later, by several hours, than much of the guidance. Winds today will be mostly W to NW at 5 to 10 knots with some gustiness (15-18 kts) possible this afternoon.

Tonight . We expect a continuation of mostly clear skies tonight with light NW to N winds across the terminals.

Outlook . Thursday thru Fri . VFR expected with light winds generally around 5 knots or less.

Fri night/Sat night . MVFR ceilings with possible IFR cigs or visibilities in rain or snow for terminals south and east of the I95 corridor, especially MIV and ACY.

Sun . Improving to VFR. Northwest to Westerly winds 10-15 knots.

MARINE. High pressure will remain well north of the waters today and tonight so the fair weather will continue. Winds will be mostly N/NW today and N/NE tonight. Winds speeds mostly 10 to 15 knots with a couple G20 possible. Seas will be around 3 to 4 ft on the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across Delaware Bay.

Outlook . Wed thru Fri . Below SCA conditions expected.

Friday night through Sunday . Winds/seas may start to increase by the Saturday night and Sunday time frame, potentially resulting in SCA conditions by this time but the exact timing is to be determined

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Deal/O'Hara Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . Deal Aviation . Deal/O'Hara Marine . Deal/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi59 min NNW 5.1 G 8 37°F 40°F1018.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi53 min NNW 12 G 18
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi59 min 37°F 40°F1017.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi59 min N 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 40°F1018.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi53 min NNW 18 G 20 37°F 42°F1018 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi59 min 37°F 40°F1017.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi53 min NNW 9.9 G 12 40°F 1018.5 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi65 min NNW 9.9 G 13 39°F 1018 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi53 min N 9.9 G 17
CPVM2 42 mi53 min 40°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi53 min 40°F 1017.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi23 min WNW 9.9 G 11 40°F 41°F1019.7 hPa (+1.7)27°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi85 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast37°F22°F56%1018.6 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi32 minNNW 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast37°F19°F50%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW6SW7SW7SW7W8NW7W6W7NW4NW7NW5NW7W6W3NW4NW5NW7W6CalmW3W4NW3NW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:46 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:35 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.61.20.70.3-0-0.1-00.20.611.31.31.10.80.3-0-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:40 AM EST     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:48 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:49 PM EST     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:13 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:33 PM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.3-0.3-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.4-0.90.41.11.61.81.61-0.9-1.5-1.8-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.511.61.92

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.