Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:50 PM EST (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:16PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 240 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain likely or a chance of freezing rain.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow through the day, then rain or snow likely through the night.
ANZ500 240 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the region will shift offshore today. A low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 121424 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region today, moving offshore tonight. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week. Another low pressure system will approach the region Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

930 update: No major changes to previous forecast.

Previous discussion:

Highs today will slowly warm through the morning and based on mixing we should see temps in the mid to upper 30s across the region which generally on the colder side of MOS guidance except for the urban corridor where MOS guidance increases temps into the low 40s. Under strong cold air advection and building heights I just dont think we'll get into the low 40s. The hourly LAMP guidance only gets to 37 which feels like a more accurate forecast.

Through the day today the winds should veer around from the northeast to the southeast and as is the habit for these type onshore flows, we'll start to see a marine layer develop. The clouds wont arrive until the overnight hours but we should start to feel some increased humidity especially along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. High pressure should crest early in day Thursday and will begin to push offshore this evening. Once the high pushes offshore the aforementioned marine layer will start to push onshore in the form of some low level stratus. Almost out of a force of habit I've increased cloud cover to overcast by midnight which should dampen how quickly temps fall this evening. The idea is that we should only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s in the urban corridor. The high res guidance is continuing to converge on the idea that some light precip will start to lift into the region as well so I've included mention of some very light rain across DelMarVa and parts of southern New Jersey heading into early Friday morning. As the day shift mentioned yesterday, there should be abundant dry air initially so while there may be visible precipitation, the dry air at the surface may be just enough to cause the rain not to reach the ground until later in the day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The high moves into the Canadian maritimes Friday leaving our area in east to southeast return flow. With the easterly flow setting up, some moisture will work its way into the region Friday morning. Just how fast the moisture arrives is still questionable and it may hold off long enough for temps to warm. However, there continues to be guidance showing the moisture making it in while temps are still below freezing so have mentioned some freezing rain during the morning, which would be mainly confined to the southern Poconos portions of the Lehigh Valley, and the elevations of northern New Jersey. With uncertainty related to the onset of any precipitation, confidence is too low to raise any kind of winter weather advisories so will hold off on that for now. Temperatures should rise through the morning with the forecast area expected to rise above freezing by early afternoon.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track up the southeast coast and up into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will intensify as it pushes northward and will bring rain to the region. The ground is pretty sodden from the rain earlier in the week and with PWATs climbing around 1.0-1.3" on Saturday, we should see some decent rains again and it may be heavy at times. While right now it doesn't look like we will see enough rain to cause any big flooding concerns (generally 1.0-1.5" across the region), there may be some localized issues, especially in areas where there is poor drainage and/or where the leaves may be clogging the storm drains.

A considerable amount of warm air will move up through the region with temps expected to warm Friday night. 850mb temps of around 10C are warm for this time of year and expect we see temps rise into the 40s and 50s on Friday with temps expected to be slightly warmer on Saturday.

The low deepens as it tracks to the north and into New England by late Saturday, continuing to push towards Newfoundland by early Sunday. The precipitation clears out early on Sunday, giving way to dry conditions. The pressure gradient will tighten up and Sunday looks to be a pretty windy day with gusts potentially around 25 to 30 mph across the region.

Another low pressure system will develop to our southwest and move towards our region on Monday. The low looks to start bringing some precipitation to the region as early as later Monday and continuing into Tuesday before exiting off to the east. There are some phasing and timing issues between the various models which impact the amount of warm air vs colder air moving through with the precipitation, which would impact the precipitation type. For now will keep things simple and go with rain/snow until more details can come into focus over the coming days. For Wednesday, an upper trough will swing through the region as surface high pressure starts to build in from the west. Temperatures look to turn colder for midweek.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . VFR at all terminals with light northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies.

Thursday . VFR with light winds less than 7 knots become northeasterly as high pressure moves offshore. Late in the afternoon the high pressure system will be far enough east to allow for a return of southerly flow at KRDG/ KABE.

Thursday night . Generally VFR ceilings with the potential for MVFR ceilings as a marine stratus layer pushes onshore overnight. Winds remain light and variable under 7 knots

Outlook .

Friday..MVFR conditions expected early and then MVFR or lower conditions will develop across the terminals as rain moves into the region. Light easterly winds. Moderate confidence

Friday night through Saturday . MVFR/IFR or lower conditions expected in rain with the rain being heavy at times. East winds around 8 to 12 knots veering to the south Saturday morning and then to the southwest Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible. Moderate confidence

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Rain/snow may move into the terminals by late morning/early afternoon. West to northwest winds less than 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. SCA conditions should dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning as High pressure crests over the region. Winds will relax through the day today gradually veer through the day ultimately becoming more easterly-southeasterly by Friday morning. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through the period.

Outlook .

Friday . Increasing winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the daytime hours. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas generally around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening into Saturday. Seas will build to 5 feet by Saturday morning, and continue to build to 5 to 7 feet through the day. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

Saturday night through Sunday . West winds around 15 to 25 knots with gale force gusts possible on Sunday. Seas around 5 to 7 feet will gradually subside to near 5 feet by later Sunday.

Monday . Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by early Monday morning and will drop to around 1 to 3 feet through the day. Some 25 knot gusts may occur early Monday but expect winds to be out of the northwest around 10 to 15 knots through the day.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis/Haines Near Term . Carr/Deal Short Term . Deal Long Term . Davis Aviation . Haines Marine . Carr/Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi57 min E 2.9 G 6 36°F 42°F1039.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi57 min S 5.1 G 8 37°F 45°F1039.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi57 min 37°F 43°F1039 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi57 min W 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 44°F1039.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi51 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 35°F 45°F1039.8 hPa (-1.8)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi57 min 39°F 42°F1039.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 34°F 1039.4 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi63 min E 8 G 9.9 33°F 1038.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi57 min S 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 46°F1038.9 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi51 min 35°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi27 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 45°F1040.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi51 min 36°F 1039 hPa (-2.1)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi51 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 44°F1040.3 hPa (-2.0)15°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD16 mi65 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F15°F44%1040 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi60 minS 610.00 miFair36°F14°F40%1039.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W5------------------------CalmCalmCalm4Calm4CalmS65
1 day agoSW4W5W4------------------------W3--W3W4--NW8
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2 days agoSW6S7S5------------------------SW8--SW8SW6----------

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:26 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:22 AM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:08 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.90.50.20.20.50.81.11.31.310.50.1-0.3-0.5-0.300.71.42.12.52.72.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:28 AM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:55 AM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:53 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:35 PM EST     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:17 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:33 PM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.08 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.4-10.311.41.81.81.4-0.5-1.6-2-2.3-2.3-2-1.5-0.71.11.82.22.21.91.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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