Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:00AM||Sunset 4:34PM||Thursday December 5, 2019 10:32 PM PST (06:32 UTC)||Moonrise 2:25PM||Moonset 1:25AM||Illumination 69%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallon, NVHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Reno, NV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KREV 052213 AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 213 PM PST Thu Dec 5 2019
Areas of fog and low clouds are likely again tonight. A moderate winter storm is expected to produce mountain snow impacts Friday evening through Sunday. This same storm will deliver mainly rain showers and gusty winds to Western Nevada. Quiet weather with valley inversions and seasonal temperatures is forecast for most of next week.
Tonight and Friday .
Primary impact for the short term will be the lurking fog and low clouds for the valley locations. Missing the sun? Head up to the mountains! Some areas, like Reno and Carson finally cleared up a bit early this afternoon.
Short term high resolution simulations handled the fog lifting out well, so we have a bit more confidence in the fog redeveloping tonight through Friday morning for many areas in western Nevada. The low visibility and low ceilings did impact aviation operations at Reno airport, so check out the aviation discussion for more details.
We went ahead and cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory and replaced it with a Freezing Fog Advisory for tonight into Friday morning. If you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning, I would plan for another round of it tonight through Friday morning. Please remember to use caution tonight and tomorrow morning as areas of patchy fog may keep roads slick and icy. Fog likely won't disperse until winds begin to increase early Friday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. -Edan
Friday night through Sunday night .
Our next significant storm system arrives for the weekend with conditions further deteriorating by Friday evening. Overall, not many changes were made to the forecast this afternoon regarding this weekend's storm. We have slightly reduced POPs/QPF for western Nevada Friday night into Saturday morning due to some likely shadowing of precipitation as well as increased snow levels a tad across the region to take into account the warming trend in the model guidance. Having said that, heavy snow in the Sierra and rain in western Nevada is still expected with gusty winds through early Sunday morning. This is why we have upgraded our Sierra zones from Winter Storm Watches to warnings. Here are the specifics of the storm .
* Timing: As of this afternoon, precipitation is likely to move into northeast California by Friday evening with the core of the low pressure just off the coast of the OR/CA border. POPs then increase along the Sierra as moisture spreads into the Tahoe Basin and Mono County late Friday night, early Saturday morning. As the center of the low moves onshore by Saturday morning, southerly winds aloft begin to shift more to the southwest allowing precipitation to spillover into western Nevada more efficiently. Recent model guidance has the bulk of the moisture spilling over into the Great Basin Saturday evening decreasing in intensity around midnight on Sunday as the low's associated cold front moves through from the northeast. Precipitation chances begin to decrease post-frontal with atmospheric conditions improving later during the day on Sunday.
* Precipitation/Snow Levels: Mainly heavy, wet snow for the Sierra above 7000 feet and mostly rain for western Nevada for the duration of this storm. The western Nevada foothills could see a light snow accumulation with a rain/snow mix for the valleys post-frontal by Saturday night into Sunday morning as snow levels lower to ~5000 ft.
* The biggest room for error regarding this storm is for areas in the 5000-7000 ft range where snow levels will vary. The trend in the ensemble as well as the deterministic model guidance has been warmer temperatures, higher snow levels. This translates to a boom or bust scenario with the potential for these areas to see a coating to a few inches of snow (warmer scenario) or up to a foot of accumulation (colder scenario). With the guidance trending warmer, the current forecast has 1-6 inches as of now with low confidence.
* As for forecast snow totals for areas above 7000 ft in the Sierra, higher confidence exists in accumulations in the 1-3 foot range with even greater amounts for elevations above 8500 ft by Sunday afternoon. Travel over any of the Sierra passes will be hazardous from Friday night through Sunday morning, so plan accordingly. Most of the precipitation will likely fall Saturday night into early Sunday morning for western Nevada along the front and placement of the polar jet allowing spillover to occur. Anywhere from 0.10" (Fallon/Lovelock) to up to an inch of rain (Reno-Sparks-Carson City) is forecast with localized flooding possible due to blocked storm drains.
* Winds: Expect Sierra ridge winds to increase during the day on Friday with peak gusts Friday night into Saturday of 50-75 mph forecast. For lower elevations, south-southwest winds of 25-35 mph are possible with higher gusts for wind prone areas including the Hwy 395 corridors in Lassen and Mono counties, portion of US-95 near Walker Lake, and Hwy 395 through Washoe Valley during Saturday. Hazardous lake conditions are likely on Tahoe and Pyramid Lake Friday night through Saturday due to the strong winds. Overall conditions improve on Sunday as the low pressure trough dives southward leaving behind some leftover snow/rain showers across the region. More stable weather is anticipated as a ridge begins to build in from the west by late Sunday night. -LaGuardia
Monday Onward .
* Heavily favoring a less exciting weather week. ECMWF ensemble mean showing high pressure aloft reasserting itself over the region much of next week. A few minor topics to touch on however:
* This pattern in winter normally yields decent valley inversions especially if there is snow cover. Unsure about that last point, but overall we do expect limited ventilation much of next week with light winds. Especially late week when ridge is more persistent and stronger versus a more transient ridge early week. Could see buildups in pollutants in lower valleys including around Reno. Also this will limit temperature warm-ups day to day in valleys while mountains could warm more each day. Fog could return too early in the week with anticipated moisture left behind from weekend storm.
* While ensembles show limited chances for precip next week, the means do show a weak wave passing through Wednesday that could produce some light rain or snow showers for the N Sierra up into NE California. Can't rule out some travel impacts even with a light accumulation. Not seeing any major precip chances even into following week (Dec 15-19) but more ensembles do show light precip into the area then with cooler temps.
The primary concern with the aviation forecast will continue to be the fog/freezing fog and low cloud extent. If you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning, I would plan for another round of it tonight through Friday morning.
* KRNO: Low confidence for FZFG to return tonight-FRI AM * KCXP/KMEV/KRTS: Medium confidence for FZFG to return tonight- FRI AM. * KTRK: High confidence for FZFG through Friday AM * KMMH/KTVL: Low-Medium confidence for FZFG to return FRI AM.
More on KRNO: Multiple diversions, delays, and cancellations have occurred due to the less than 1/4 mile visibility at KRNO this morning. The big question mark is whether or not KRNO will experience some clearing by this afternoon. High resolution simulations are showing the potential for the visibility to decline and FZFG to return later tonight into Friday morning.
Mixing increases ahead of the next storm for Friday. This should lift all ceilings for a time . but then the system begins to impact northeast California and the northern Sierra Friday evening and through the weekend. The storm will bring valley rain and mountain snow along with increased winds and turbulence aloft through Sunday. -Edan
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to noon PST Sunday above 5500 feet in NVZ002.
Freezing Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday NVZ001-003-004.
CA . Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to noon PST Sunday above 5500 feet in CAZ071>073.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno
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|Fallon, Naval Air Station, NV||16 mi||97 min||Var 5||0.25 mi||Fog||34°F||34°F||100%||1018.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KNFL
Wind History from NFL (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S||SW||SE||SW||Calm||Calm||NW||N||N||N||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||N||N||N||N||NE||NE||NE |
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