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FXUS66 KSTO 082050 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1250 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

Synopsis
Breezy northerly winds for much of the Valley this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions and increasingly cold temperatures are expected into the weekend, with areas of frost in the Valley. Dry and warming temperatures the remainder of the week.

Satellite images show skies have been clearing since this morning, and the early morning fog has fully dissipated. This is owed to the eastward movement of the low pressure system that brought rain and snow to the area over the last few days. A ridging pattern is in the process of replacing it, bringing about the drier and sunnier conditions this afternoon. This particular pattern, with high pressure to the northwest and a low to the southeast, is also bringing breezy northerly winds to the Valley today. Gusts may get up to 30 mph, primarily along the western edge of the Valley. Gusty winds will continue into tomorrow morning.

As the ridge begins to dominate the area, conditions will continue to dry out and temperatures will warm slightly. Valley highs will rise to the low to mid 60s by Monday. However, Valley lows will still be quite cold this weekend, remaining in the low to mid 30s overnight tonight through Sunday. Areas of frost are likely in the Valley overnight during this time as well, and there is a 40-90% probability of temperatures at or below freezing on Saturday, and a 20-50% chance on Sunday. Be sure to take any necessary precautions to protect pets, plants, and people from the cold. Elsewhere, highs in the foothills and mountains will be in the high 40s to mid 60s, and the lows will be in the mid 30s to high 40s.

Late on Monday, a weak shortwave trough will develop over the area.
While this will briefly cool daytime temperatures across the region, the system is only bringing limited precipitation potential. Any precipitation that does occur will likely be light and primarily limited to the northwestern portion of Shasta County. Winds will also remain relatively light, with speeds and gusts generally below 15 mph. //SP

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
New upper level ridging in the Pacific Northwest will move inland over interior NorCal Tuesday, and bring dry weather and some gusty winds from the north and east. Right now, the best chances of wind gusts greater than 25 mph according the National Blend of Models resides in the western Sacramento Valley and the Northern Sierra. The NBM gives about a 10-20% chance for the western Sacramento Valley and a 30-70% chance for the higher elevations.
Weak short waves are projected to move over NorCal mid-week, however moisture content within the short waves is very limited.
Currently the NBM suggests no accumulation expected with the systems and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecast rainfall totals agree.

Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge amplifies and will remove any precipitation chances. Ensembles and Cluster Analysis are in relatively good agreement of upper level ridging dominating the weather pattern into the weekend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for the Valley, and upper 40s to 50s for higher elevations. Ensembles and Clusters are also hinting at a potential for a pattern change into next weekend, so stay tuned to the forecast for updates.

Wood

AVIATION
VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours except isolated MVFR/IFR/LIFR in fog development Saturday 05z through 16z. Confidence in fog development not as high as this morning. Winds will be from the north, generally 20 knots or lower with gusts up to 25 knots.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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