Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bel Air South, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:36 AM EDT (14:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:19PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 737 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Today..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers this morning, then numerous showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will slowly pass through the waters this afternoon and tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. High pressure will build to the south for Wednesday before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. A small craft advisory may be needed for the waters tonight and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bel Air South, MD
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location: 39.53, -76.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290808 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 408 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move very slowly through the area today through tonight. Weak high pressure to our south will control the weather for Wednesday before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of early this morning, cloud cover has overspread the area, but most of the area has remained precipitation free overnight. As we move toward daybreak, showers may begin to work their way into far western portions of the forecast area, with some additional showers also possible over southern Maryland. Throughout the day today, a deep trough and its associated surface cold front will slowly approach from the west. Ahead of the front, warm, moist air will continue to stream northward in southerly flow. During the morning to early afternoon hours, most of the precipitation is expected to stay to the west of the Blue Ridge. A few showers will also be possible across southern Maryland. In between those two areas, a lull is expected, with cloudy skies. By mid afternoon the area of showers to the west of the Blue Ridge will start to progress toward the east, along with the system's cold front. Some surface destabilization is expected to occur to the east of the Blue Ridge, so the potential is there for any pre-existing convective line along the front to intensify as it reaches more unstable air along and east of the Blue Ridge. Such a solution is hinted at by the HRRR. Other CAMs also hint that a few individual showers or storms may try to develop ahead of the surface cold front. Flow in the lower troposphere isn't that impressive, but there will be around 50 knots of flow at mid-levels and around 100 knots at jet level. With the relative lack of instability today, the expectation is that most storms won't grow tall, but if any storm were to grow taller and tap into the deep layer shear, some stronger storms could occur, with a splitting supercell or two even possible given the long, straight hodographs. The expectation is that severe thunderstorms shouldn't be a major issue today, but there is a non-zero threat for some damaging winds if stronger storms are able to form. As mentioned before, the best chance for this to occur would be from the Blue Ridge eastward, with odds increasing with southward extent. The threat for flooding is also expected to remain minimal, given high flash flood guidance values. However, an isolated instance of flooding can't be ruled out.

As the front gradually works its way through from west to east, we'll be left with a period of anafrontal light rain through much of the night. This rain should clear the area by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. By daybreak Wednesday, the main shortwave will be working its way to our east, and we'll be left within the zone of subsidence in its wake. Rain will have cleared the area, and cloud cover will also be in the process of breaking up. From mid-morning onward, ample sunshine is expected across the area. We'll have a westerly breeze throughout the course of the day, and highs will top out in the upper 60s to near 70. Clear skies are in the forecast for Wednesday night, but westerly winds will keep temperatures up, with lows ranging from the mid-upper 40s in the mountains, to the upper 50s in DC and Baltimore.

By Thursday, a shortwave embedded within the larger scale trough over the eastern half of the CONUS will start to dig southward into the Ohio Valley. As this shortwave approaches from the west, large scale forcing for ascent will gradually increase across the area ahead of the shortwave/within the right entrance of a developing jet streak. As a result, clouds will be on the increase Thursday, and we may even see a few showers around by late afternoon. Chances for showers will increase Thursday night, as the aforementioned shortwave and a reinforcing cold front reach our area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A broad upper-level trough will remain over the central and eastern CONUS throughout the period of Friday through Tuesday.

A cold front will move off to our east Friday, but the shortwave energy will lag behind, therefore a couple showers cannot be ruled out. However, subsidence behind the cold front and ahead of a building Canadian high will allow for much of the day to be dry and cool for this time of year. Max temps will be in the 60s for most locations.

Canadian high pressure will impact the area Friday night through Saturday night, bringing dry and cool conditions for this time of year with highs in the 60s for most areas and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some frost or freeze conditions are possible in the sheltered valleys and rural areas during the overnight and early morning Friday night/Saturday and again Saturday night/Sunday.

A potent shortwave in the northern stream of the jet will drop into the Plains and Midwest for Sunday, before building east early next week. For Sunday, it appears that the system will remain far enough west for more dry and cool conditions for this time of year. However, as this system digs, it will cause the broad upper-level trough to become higher in amplitude while switching from a positive tilt to a negative tilt. This means that coastal low pressure may develop. However, there is still high uncertainty as to exactly how long it will take for the trough to swing negatively tilted, and consequently how quickly the coastal low can develop before it ends up to our north and east.

Will allow for the chance for showers Sunday night and Monday, with high pressure most likely returning for Tuesday behind this system.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Ceilings are on the decrease early this morning. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by daybreak, with IFR conditions possible at times. MVFR ceilings are expected through the day, with chances for showers increasing through the afternoon hours. Even a stray afternoon thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Ceilings are expected to drop again tonight, and may reach IFR, but confidence was still to low to introduce IFR at most terminals. Light rain is expected through much of the night, before conditions clear out just prior to daybreak on Wednesday. VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Canadian high pressure will likely bring VFR conditions Friday through Saturday.

MARINE. As of early this morning, winds have dipped below SCA levels, but continue to gust 10 to 15 knots out of the south. Similar winds are expected through the morning. Winds will begin to creep back up again late this afternoon and evening, and may reach low-end SCA levels overnight in southerly flow. However, confidence was still to low to issue a SCA. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, and a Special Marine Warning or two could be needed. SCA level winds appear possible through much of the day Wednesday in westerly flow behind the system's cold front. Winds will subside back to sub-SCA level values by Wednesday night into Thursday.

A cold front will move off to the east Friday and Canadian high pressure will approach before settling overhead Friday night through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly breezes have ushered in rising anomalies, which will bring several of our tidal sites to action stage into tonight.

The higher of the two astronomical high tides will be this morning, so water levels will be around minor flooding thresholds for sensitive areas. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Anne Arundel, and it will be close for Baltimore and Washington DC with the high tide cycle this morning.

Anomalies should fall later tonight as a northwest flow develops.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on September 20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service until on or about October 16, 2020.

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center (ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed on or about October 16, 2020.

During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include: Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

For a radar mosaic loop for the region:

https:/radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php

Further updates about the situation will be issued as information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this extended outage.

Point of Contact:

Christopher Strong email: Christopher.Strong@noaa.gov office: 703-996-2223

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJL NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KJP MARINE . BJL/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL EQUIPMENT . LWX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi49 min SSW 7 G 11 73°F 71°F1011.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 23 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 7 72°F 74°F1010.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi49 min S 11 G 13 72°F 1010.9 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi49 min S 9.9 G 13 72°F 1010.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 71°F
CPVM2 37 mi49 min 72°F 70°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi49 min S 6 G 9.9 71°F 62°F1011.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi49 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 74°F 72°F1010.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi49 min 71°F 70°F1011 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 44 mi37 min SE 15 G 17 71°F 72°F1011.9 hPa (+0.3)71°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD8 mi99 minSSE 57.00 miOvercast70°F68°F94%1011.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi43 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW4--5S6SW7SW8S7S7S5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4SE4S5S6
1 day agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4CalmSW3Calm--CalmS6SW9
2 days agoE6E4E4NE3NW4CalmNE4CalmNE3E5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmE5E3CalmCalmNE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:58 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.71.41.10.90.91.31.92.63.23.33.232.62.21.71.31.11.11.422.52.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:12 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.70.91.31.722.22.22.11.81.51.20.90.70.711.31.61.81.81.71.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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