Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bel Air South, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:42PM Saturday December 7, 2019 2:51 PM EST (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
This afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain or drizzle.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over ohio will build across pennsylvania and northern maryland tonight, then shift offshore of new jersey on Sunday. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes Sunday into Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic on Monday. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday night into Monday, then become increasingly likely Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bel Air South, MD
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location: 39.53, -76.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 071930 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 230 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over Ohio will build across Pennsylvania and northern Maryland tonight, then shift offshore of New Jersey on Sunday. Low pressure will develop over the central United States and lift into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the Carolinas is expected to lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure will build from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Friday, then shift offshore of New England through Saturday as low pressure develops over the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface high pressure that was centered between Cleveland Ohio and Pittsburgh Pennsylvania around midday today will build eastward across Pennsylvania, ridging down into northern/central Maryland and northern Virginia tonight. The narrow surface ridge axis should place itself between the I-95 and I-81 corridors tonight. With the high overhead, winds will be light to calm under a clear sky. This is an ideal setup for radiational cooling. As such, sided with or even went a touch below the lowest available temperature guidance for lows tonight, which yields around 30 F in the downtown areas and immediately adjacent to larger bodies of water, with 20s elsewhere (teens likely in some of the sheltered higher elevation valleys of the Allegheny Highlands).

High pressure will push offshore of New Jersey and southern New England Sunday as low pressure takes shape over the central Great Plains. This low will develop ahead of a sharpening mid/upper trough digging into the central CONUS Sunday, with high clouds increasing well ahead of this system through the day over the Mid-Atlantic. After a mainly sunny start, sunshine will become increasingly obscured through the day, with a broken mid/high overcast expected by nightfall. Despite the increasing clouds, ensuing warm air advection on south/southeast flow should result in Sunday's high temperatures being very similar to Saturday's.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Deep, long-fetch warm/moist advection strengthens Sunday night ahead of low pressure expected to trek across the Mid- Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. This will cause clouds to lower and thicken, with light rain or drizzle likely by daybreak Monday for much of the area (both approaching from the west closer to the parent low and aided by orographic forcing, and approaching/developing from the southeast north of a developing warm front over the Carolinas). A few members of the 12Z HREF as well as the RGEM paint a few isolated patches of freezing rain near the highlands early Monday morning, but overall this threat appears marginal (<25% probability) given strong WAA pattern and lack of a persistent cold high to the north. Overall, low temperatures are likely achieved Sunday evening, before increasing clouds and low level winds force temperatures to slowly rise after midnight.

Periods of rain are expected over much of the area Monday as the warm front lifts slowly north. The steadiest and most widespread rain is expected during the first half of the day, likely becoming more showery in nature after the warm front passes. Although the strongest lift will move northward by Monday evening, continued isentropic lift and mid/upper jet dynamics ahead of the approaching low and its associated surface cold front should keep at least a chance of showers through much of Monday night. Temperatures will be much warmer Monday and Monday night, topping out in the 60s for highs and likely holding in the 50s for lows with warm southwest winds and lots of clouds.

BUFKIT soundings indicate 40-50 kts of wind 2-5 kft AGL, but low- level temp inversion/saturated column should keep winds in check at the surface, except perhaps at some of the higher elevation summits.

Shower coverage should increase again by late Monday night into Tuesday as the surface cold front approaches from the west.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overall, the long term period appears as though it will be quite active, but confidence is very low with respect to the forecast details within that time period.

Starting off on Tuesday morning, persistent southerly flow and warm advection will have transported an anomalously warm air mass into the region. We'll have a warm start to the day, with temperatures in the upper 50s around daybreak. Temperatures should climb into the 60s by late morning in most spots. Skies will be cloudy with showers possible through much of the day. A surface cold front will pass through the region during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, causing temperatures to drop in its wake. With the main mid/upper wave lagging well behind the surface front, there could potentially be a prolonged period of anafrontal precipitation somewhere within the Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning time frame. It appears as though most of this precipitation should be rain, but a changeover to snow can't be ruled out (especially NW of I-95) as colder air continues to work in at low levels. In fact, several EPS members, as well as some deterministic models show a light accumulation of snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, though the trend has been for a little less snowfall over the last couple runs. Confidence remains low as to whether the snow will fall, and if so, exactly where (or how much, albeit likely on the lighter side). We will continue to monitor this as we move closer to the event.

Behind this system, an impressive area of high pressure will build in just to our north, bringing well below normal temperatures and sunny skies on Thursday. Highs likely only reach the 30s.

Forecast confidence decreases significantly moving toward Friday and into next weekend. Most indicators point toward a continued active pattern, with one or more disturbances developing in the southern stream and tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic. However, there is still considerable spread in both the timing, intensity and track of these systems (both from model to model and from run to run). Each of these factors contribute to elevated forecast uncertainty, and stem largely from uncertainty regarding phasing uncertainties with the northern stream and the magnitude of residual low level cold. With the cold air mass initially in place ahead of these systems, there may be a chance for some wintry precipitation, but it is far too early to pin down what the sensible weather will be at a given point this far out.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Calm winds are likely at the surface tonight for most terminals, with very little if any cloud cover. Some high/mid level clouds will begin to encroach on the terminals Sunday, but any precipitation should hold off until very late Sunday night. Rain showers and subsequent restrictions become increasingly likely Monday into Monday night as a warm front over the Carolinas crosses the region from south to north. This warm from will be associated with low pressure developing over the Midwest, which will subsequently move across the Great Lakes through Monday night. Its trailing cold front will force a prolonging of rain chances/possible restrictions through Monday night. LLWS is possible as well as winds increase out of the SW at a few thousand feet Sunday night into Monday, with 30+ kts progged at 2 kft AGL.

Sub-VFR conditions will be possible at the terminals during the day Tuesday in association with low clouds and showers. Gusty winds will be possible both in advance of the system's cold front Tuesday morning in southerly flow, as well as behind the cold front in northwesterly flow Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

MARINE. Light to calm winds are expected through tonight as surface high pressure ridges overhead. The high will move offshore Sunday as a warm front develops over the Carolinas well in advance of low pressure developing over the Midwest. The gradient will gradually tighten between these systems Sunday night into Monday, and may approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Latest BUFKIT soundings continue to show about 18-22 kts at the top of the mixed-layer in S/SE flow Sunday afternoon, about 3000 feet above the surface. The anticipated increasing cloud cover may preclude optimal mixing for gusts of this magnetite to reach the surface, though channeling could accelerate the flow slightly, compensating for this. Given the lower confidence, no headline has been issued at this time.

More widespread gusts are possible Monday and especially Monday night, but a strong low-level temperature inversion casts doubt on the magnitude of gusts reaching the surface, despite winds in excess of 40 kts a few thousand feet above the surface. Using the Stas Stabilizer technique, the depth and strength of the inversion should still allow for 20-25 kt gusts to reach the surface during this time.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Tuesday both in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, as well as in northwesterly flow behind the cold front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Anamolies over the lower (Virginia) portion of the Chesapeake Bay are running about 0.5 to 0.75 feet above astronomical predictions today, and with light to calm winds tonight, these anomalies should spread northward. ETSS/CBOFS seem to have the best handle on this in the near term, though even so flooding thresholds are unlikely to be approached through tonight.

Increasing onshore flow would suggest an increase in water levels through Tuesday before a cold front crosses the region, though a more west-of-south component could keep water levels in check. Current forecast sides on higher ESTOFS/CBOFS and upper third of Snap-ex guidance, resulting in near minor flooding for Straits Point and Annapolis at times early next week, though this may need to be adjusted based on fine-tuning of wind direction and subsequent water level reactions over the next 36 to 48 hours.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . DHOF/KJP MARINE . DHOF/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi57 min NNW 5.1 G 7 39°F 45°F1029.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 23 mi57 min N 6 G 8 41°F 49°F1029 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi57 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 1029.5 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi63 min 40°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi57 min NNW 6 G 9.9 40°F 42°F1029.4 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi57 min 40°F 29°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi57 min NNW 7 G 11 40°F 47°F1029 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi57 min 42°F 1028.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi57 min 39°F 44°F1028.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi39 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 46°F1030 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 44 mi51 min NNE 11 G 12 40°F 46°F1030 hPa (-1.0)23°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi53 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F23°F46%1029.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD23 mi57 minno data mi41°F19°F43%1029.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmW4S9SW10SW8SW10--SW7SW8
1 day ago------------------------W5W4W8W9NW10
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2 days ago------------------------SW3W3SW3W4--W7SW7SW8SW6SW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Sat -- 01:49 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.71.11.61.81.81.71.410.60.30-00.10.61.21.7221.91.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:00 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:37 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.711.21.21.210.70.40.20-00.10.40.711.31.41.31.10.90.70.50.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.