Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Havre de Grace, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:35PM Friday July 10, 2020 8:38 PM EDT (00:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 738 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Tropical storm fay is expected to move northward into the new york city/new jersey/long island area and then into new england through tonight. A cold front will approach from the ohio river valley tonight into Saturday, then stall between interstate 95 and the coast through the weekend. High pressure is expected to build over the southeastern united states early next week. Please consult the latest national hurricane center advisory for information on tropical storm fay.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havre de Grace city, MD
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 39.54, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 101848 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Faye will shift northeastward out of our region this evening. Multiple disturbances will pass through our region this weekend. High pressure builds over our area next week bringing an extend stretch of hot weather.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. The center of Tropical Storm Faye is located 25 miles ESE of CAPE MAY New Jersey as of 2 pm with max sustained wind of 60 mph. Our region continues to receive light to moderate showers in Harford and eastern Baltimore Counties. The system continues to shift northward away from our area and I expect that most our of region should be shower free over by 22Z if not earlier. After the rain has moved out of our region as the system shifts further away from our area, we should start to see clearing in skies as we experience subsistence on the outer edge of the tropical system. As skies continue to clear along the I-95 corridor, temps will have a chance to surge up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a chance the the 90 degree day streak in DC could be extended as DCA has recorded an in between temp of 89 and that was with a broken deck with a few hours of heating to go.

The main hazard for today will be an upper level shortwave dropping down through the western half of our region. The western half our area has been mostly clear which has allowed temps to rise up into the upper 80s with dew points in the 70s. This means there is decent instability and combined with the shortwave will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly west of the Blue Ridge mountains. The main hazard with these storms will be an isolated threat for flooding due to a slow storm motion but I can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm either. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening but should start to taper of as the sun sets. Overnight lows should hover in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As Tropical Storm Faye exits our region early on Saturday, a weak cold front will approach from the west and move through our region Saturday morning. Compared to prior model runs from the past few days, this boundary is forecast to be much weaker as the strong upper forcing support remains to our north near the PA and MD border. Wind shifts in model solutions indicate a passage during middle to late morning periods to early afternoon. I don't see a lot of showers and thunderstorms with the front mainly due to the early day passage. The upper level trough to our north could provide enough forcing in a warm and humid environment to kick off showers and a few thunderstorms mainly near the Maryland PA border during the Saturday afternoon. Overall the strong thunderstorm threat has really decreased for Saturday but I still have included chance pops for most of our region with the highest near the MD/PA border and decreasing toward central Virginia. The threat for showers and thunderstorms should decrease after sunset as daytime heating drops off and the upper level trough lifts off to our northeast. Daytime temperatures on Saturday should easily reach back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday as winds become more west southwest during the afternoon periods with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will end overnight and into early Sunday. A mainly westerly flow will lead to drier weather moving into our region Sunday morning and dry conditions should continue through Sunday morning. A weak southerly flow will form late Sunday morning leading to advection of warm and moist air into our region. Another stronger upper level shortwave trough will drop down into our region from the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon and into early Monday. Increasing moisture and daytime temps will lead to modest instability with CAPE values upwards of 1500. The increased lift provided by the upper level trough and focused upper level jet coupled with fair instability will to an increased threat for the formation of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. The one limiting factor will be that they may form after the sun sets. Sunday looks like the best chance for stronger thunderstorms to form especially during the late afternoon and early evening periods. The best area for strong storms will likely be west of the Blue Ridge at this time but there remains a lot of uncertainty on the strength and location of the upper level trough. Daytime temps will hover in the 90s once again with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

A surface cold front will likely be near or east of I-95 on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Where rainfall does not occur, temperatures should easily reach 90 degrees or warmer.

The front should push through the region Monday night to allow an area of high pressure to develop overhead Tuesday through Wednesday. Drier air will keep convection down and temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower as well with highs reaching the middle 80s both days.

A light southerly flow develops Wednesday night and Thursday. The humidity will increase and so will the temperatures as we may look at temperatures reaching 100 degrees in places on Thursday.

By late in the day Thursday into Thursday evening, a weakness in high pressure and an approaching surface cold front could spark thunderstorms. A pre-frontal trough at the surface could be the trigger in igniting these storms that would be fueled by the heat and humidity.

On Friday, the actual surface cold front could set up across our region and ignite additional showers and thunderstorms. Storms that could produce heavy rainfall or damaging winds.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Tropical Storm Faye continues to move north to northeastward out of our area. The thick broken clouds that we had earlier in the day are a starting to break up and all ceilings have risen above VFR thresholds. I expect ceilings to continue to improve and become scattered by 22Z. Winds will weakened later this afternoon and become more southerly in nature.

Multiple disturbance and weak fronts will pass through our region this weekend. The main wind shift front will pass through early Saturday morning and winds will go from southerly to westerly by the middle parts of Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected this weekend but there remains a threat for showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. The storm threat Saturday is mainly for our northern terminals near the MD/PA border while Sunday will see a more widespread terminal threat for thunderstorms.

VFR conditions expected both days. Any showers and thunderstorms on Monday could briefly reduce to MVFR Monday afternoon. Winds southwest 5 knots Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

MARINE. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots will continue through this afternoon but should taper off this evening as the Tropical Storm Faye shifts further away from our region. A weak boundary will pass through our waters Saturday morning with another disturbance moving through late Sunday and into Monday. Sub Small Craft Advisories are expected at this time but there remains a chance for thunderstorms to move over our marine areas this weekend.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds southwest then light and variable Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming northwest around 10 knots Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Winds have become northerly which has start to force water down toward the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. No coastal flooding expected over the next few cycles but as the winds become southerly this weekend, the return of the water that has pooled to our south will return northward and we could see some coastal flood issues later this weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . KLW/JMG MARINE . KLW/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi50 min NW 12 G 14 83°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi50 min NW 12 G 15
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 27 mi50 min WNW 8 G 14 74°F 77°F1004.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi50 min 82°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi50 min N 7 G 8.9 83°F 85°F1006.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi50 min NNW 9.9 G 12 83°F 1006.6 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi62 min NW 9.9 G 12
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 40 mi50 min 81°F
CPVM2 41 mi50 min 83°F 71°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi56 min 77°F 1005.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi50 min W 5.1 G 7 84°F 83°F1006.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi38 min W 6 G 7 84°F 82°F1007.9 hPa (-0.3)70°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD6 mi40 minWNW 74.00 miFair with Haze78°F69°F75%1006 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi44 minW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds81°F71°F74%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmE3E5NE6NE6N6NE7N5N7N8N5N7N6N6N8N6--N10NW12
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1 day ago--CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--NE5SE6CalmNE7E4E7E5S4SE7SE7SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE3S3S6S7S6S7SW8S4SE7SE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Fri -- 02:19 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:16 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.9221.81.51.10.80.60.60.81.31.82.22.32.321.71.30.90.50.40.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:37 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:04 AM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.05 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:50 AM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.90.71.522.11.91.30.4-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.70.81.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.