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FXUS66 KSTO 012157 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 157 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Synopsis
Precipitation chances remain in forecast through the weekend; latest rainfall/snowfall totals have trended up. Drying and warming trend expected early next week before shower chances return Wednesday through Friday.

Discussion
Current radar analysis is showing some light returns over Shasta and Tehama counties this afternoon, however most precipitation is not reaching the ground. There has been 0.01" inches of rainfall reported at the Redding Airport. Most precipitation is forecasted to remain over far northern Sac Valley counties and the Cascades and Sierra for the remainder of the day. Could see some very light snowfall accumulations (dusting up to an inch) at pass levels as we progress into the evening.

For this weekend, recent model runs of the National Blend of Models (NBM) rainfall totals and snowfall totals have trended upwards, especially for the far northern counties of the area (Shasta and Tehama) and the Sierra. Short range models such as the NAM and HRRR have suggested a stronger trough digging further south into the aforementioned areas and bring higher water vapor content with them, so forecasted rainfall and snowfall totals for the weekend have been adjusted higher. The NBM currently has a 60-80% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 0.50' inches from Redding northwards and a general 30-70% chance for the Sierra.
Snowfall totals for the Sierra and higher elevations have also increased. For the Northern Sierra at Pass levels, there is a general 2-6" inches of snowfall currently forecasted, slightly below any advisory criteria, however hazardous driving conditions may occur and chain controls may be necessary. The NBM has about a 50% chance for Lassen National Park to receive 8' inches or more of snowfall and a 35% chance of exceeding 10" inches or more snowfall. This system moves out of the area on Sunday afternoon and the troughing pattern will exit off to the east, and will be replaced by upper level ridging for Monday and Tuesday.

With the ridging pattern taking over the airmass for our area, high temperatures will slightly warm and will help keep us relatively dry. The ridge will keep precipitation chances mainly to the north of our area in Oregon and Washington. High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 60s for Valley locations and mid 50s for higher terrain.

Wood

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Dry and mild weather under ridging will give way early next week, with clusters showing the ridge shifting east of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A shortwave with a cold front is currently expected to approach Tuesday/Tuesday night. Some light precipitation is possible ahead of this system over the northern Coastal Range and Shasta County as early as Tuesday, but confidence in specific timing of the onset of precipitation remains low. Precipitation coverage and potential amounts will likely be increasing across the region Wednesday through late next week, though current projections suggest much of the precipitation will be over the mountains and north of Interstate 80. There is the potential for some late week snow, but clusters indicate quite a bit of uncertainty on the strength and timing of the incoming trough, so confidence is low on any details at this point. Stay tuned for more details as this system approaches. //EK

AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours except for local MVFR BR/HZ in the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys and over the northern Sierra in snow showers, both through around 18Z Saturday. Light rain is possible near KRDD and KRBL through 03Z this evening. Surface wind gusts generally below 12 kts. //EK

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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