Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elkton, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure has shifted offshore and remain well off the coast tonight through Friday. The high will still have enough of an effect on the region to keep the area dry tonight through the daytime hours Friday. With the high being offshore, return flow will be in place across the area, which will keep temperatures above normal, and begin to lead to an increase in moisture across the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure will be over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday evening. A warm front will extend out from that low and will lift north through the region Friday night. As the low passes north of the region and into eastern Canada on Saturday, it will drag a cold front through the region during the day, and the front will clear the area Saturday evening. Showers will develop Friday night, and then showers continue throughout the day Saturday, tapering off late and ending in the evening. The surface low looks to strengthen somewhat Friday night as it lifts north of Lake Ontario, and this may result in some locally heavy rain across the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from time to time, but not looking at a severe threat. Overall, between 3/4 inches and 1 inch of rain is expected for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, otherwise, between 1/3 and 1/2 inch of rain for most of the area, and 1/4 inch or so for Delmarva. Flash flooding is also not expected.
This will be a beneficial rain.

Canadian high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Sunny, dry and seasonable conditions with a breezy northwest wind.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds east and will be centered over the Mid- Atlantic on Monday, then slides offshore and becomes a Bermuda high through at least Wednesday. Mid-level ridging builds over the East Coast as well. Unseasonably warm air builds into the region with highs in the 70s on Monday, and then in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A cold front approaches late next week. There is uncertainty among the models as to timing and strength. Based on NBM PoPs, chances for showers arrive sometime Wednesday, but it may not clear until Wednesday night or Thursday. Will carry slight chance-chance PoPs during this time. Cooling off for the end of the week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, with occasional gusts 15-20 knots; gusts drop of by sunset. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. South-southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable most places overnight. High confidence.

Friday... VFR.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Saturday.. MVFR/IFR in SHRA and scattered TSRA.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. NSW. Gusty NW winds likely on Sunday.

MARINE
Rest of today-Friday...Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, although winds will gust around 20 knots this afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions expected, although seas may build close to 5 feet late Saturday.
VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Saturday night through Sunday...SCA conditions possible, mainly for seas building to 5 feet. A period of 25 to 30 kt gusts possible Saturday night and SUnday morning.

Monday through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions.

FIRE WEATHER
RH values on Thursday dropped into the low to mid 20s, while winds increased and gusted to around 20 mph at times. Friday will see similar wind gusts, however, RH values are not expected to be as low. The lowest RH values are expected across eastern Pennsylvania and inland portions of New Jersey where RH values could drop into the mid to upper 20s. RH values for Delaware, Maryland, as well as coastal portions of New Jersey will likely see RH values in the 35-45% or greater range. Depending on how much fuels have dried in the last couple of days, we may need to issue a Special Weather Statement for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Rain will impact the area Friday night through Saturday evening. Overall, between 1/3 and 1/2 inch of rain will fall across most of the area, though up to an inch of rain is possible in the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, and 1/4 inch or so is possible in Delmarva.

On Sunday, northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with 30 to 35 mph gusts possible. In addition, Min RH values on Sunday will be 30 to 35 percent.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ012-015.
MARINE...None.