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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 334 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 334 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters today into Monday. Periods of gales are likely during this time. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night.

FXUS61 KPHI 101000 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A potent cold front sweeps across our region Sunday and Monday. High pressure begins to build in by Monday night and then remains in place across the region to the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Summary and changes: A strong synoptic system will impact the region beginning today through Monday. There have been no significant changes regarding impacts from this system to our area. However, there are a few notable items to mention. Confidence has increased that accumulating snow will impact the Monday morning commute across the Pocono Plateau, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to highlight this threat. Confidence has increased in sustained winds near 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph along the coast of New Jersey, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for late this afternoon and evening for this area. Details follow below.

A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis will cross through the region this evening. This will bring a number of weather impacts to the region beginning today into Monday, including strong winds, heavy rain, and freshwater and tidal flooding concerns.
Following frontal passage, high pressure behind the front will build in Monday as precipitation tapers off, but WNW winds will remain gusty through the afternoon.

A warm front is lifting north through the area early this morning.
This is evident in temperatures warming several degrees across the coastal plain as well as low stratus caused by the warm advection.
The cold front will cross the Appalachian range later this morning and continuing to progress eastward throughout the day. The amplified upper level trough at this point will still be positively tilted, and therefore the baroclinic forcing will not be at its strongest at this point. Nonetheless, periods of rain will likely arrive in our western areas by mid-morning as heights begin falling coincident with some meager elevated instability. The rain will increase in coverage and intensity while spreading eastward with time.

By the afternoon, areas of moderate to heavy rain are expected across the region. Some elevated instability, in the 250-500 J/kg range, should result in some embedded convection by this afternoon and evening. This should result in some heavier bursts of rain with rainfall rates briefly around 1-2" per hour. The convection may also help mix down some stronger winds within the low level jet just above the surface, perhaps locally near 40-50 mph. This activity should be confined mainly to areas near and southeast of I-95. The latest hi-res guidance continues to support the greatest rainfall amounts near the coast, though this could end up being anywhere within the coastal plain. Winds will be 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 30-40 mph possible across the coastal plain. Northwest of I- 95, cooler air should limit stronger winds to near 10-15 mph in the southerly flow through this evening. The strongest winds through this evening will occur near the coast. Sustained winds near 20-30 mph are forecast with gusts of 40-50 mph along the immediate coastline in New Jersey, where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 PM through 1 AM tonight. Strong WAA from the warm front will help raise afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 60s near and southeast of I-95 despite rainfall. Farther northwest, highs will likely remain in the 50s.

The cold front is expected to pass through the region late this evening and should be moving offshore by around midnight or so. At this point, the amplified upper level trough is shifting more neutrally tilted and slightly negatively tilted, which suggests better baroclinic forcing for greater frontogenesis at this time.
Additionally, latest guidance suggests a secondary coastal low developing along the front as the trough digs. As a result, we can expect precip along and behind the frontal boundary to further intensify. We should see a broad area of moderate to heavy stratiform rain develop along near and behind the front as a result.
This will continue to bring additional widespread rainfall overnight after the more convectively enhanced activity from the daytime and evening hours.

Generally speaking, we are still forecasting a widespread 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts near 4 inches possible. With this said, much of where the heaviest rainfall will occur depends heavily on the timing of the frontal boundary. With a slower frontal passage, higher rainfall amounts could stretch west of the I-95 corridor. A quicker frontal passage means west of the I-95 could see less rainfall totals with the greatest chance for the heaviest rainfall remaining east of the I-95 corridor. Regardless, the entire region remains under a Flood Watch for both urban and small stream flooding.

Expect a sharp drop in temperatures into the 40s this evening behind the cold front with temperatures in the 30s by daybreak Monday.
Northwest winds will become quite breezy overnight with gusts remaining near 25-35 mph as the surface low strengthens rapidly offshore.

Last, but not least, is the expected rain to snow transition on the back side of the departing system Monday morning for areas near and especially northwest of I-95. Guidance has come to a rather good consensus that some precipitation will linger across the area around daybreak to perhaps a few hours after daybreak as colder WNW flow takes over the region. Areas northwest of the I-95 urban corridor (primarily Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northwest NJ) are expected to see a transition to a period of snow before the precipitation exits the area. This transition may occur as far south as the urban corridor Monday morning. Accumulating snow is forecast primarily for higher elevations near and above 1,000 feet in eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey. Across the Pocono Plateau, temperatures will drop low enough to support snow accumulations of 2-3 inches with potential for amounts near 5 inches possible above 1,800 feet.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from midnight through noon Monday. The snowfall will likely impact the Monday morning commute in these areas.

Farther southeast and at lower elevations, temperatures will likely be too warm to support snowfall accumulation even where a transition to snow does occur. A dusting is possible into the I-78 corridor, Berks County, and western Chester County, however significant travel impacts are currently unlikely aside from a few slippery spots on the roads.

Aside from the snow potential, Monday will be a cold and blustery day with temperatures struggling to climb into the 40s. Winds will peak by late morning and early afternoon near 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph possible throughout the day. Some clearing may occur immediately following the end of the precipitation in the morning, however stratocumulus will likely develop in its wake during the afternoon. Some light snow showers may linger in the southern Poconos.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will gain a stronger foothold across the region beginning Monday night, allowing clouds to break overnight and winds to relax to around 10-15 mph with a few gusts still reaching 20 mph, mainly before midnight. Temperatures will be much colder with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s.

Surface high pressure continues to build across much of the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday, favoring much lighter winds and mostly clear skies. Expect a clear and chilly start on Tuesday, with early morning temps in the 20s. That may result in some morning fog, though dry air and a lingering breeze most of Monday night should limit the threat, so perhaps more of a patchy fog for rural/sheltered areas type of situation. Otherwise look for a sunny day with highs mainly in the 40s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with a light SWrly breeze.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Overall a quiet long term period. Temperatures will remain slightly below mid- December seasonal averages through most of the week, with an upper-level trough extending southward from eastern Canada across the Northeast, that will only begin to lift out by Friday.

On Wednesday into Wednesday night, a reinforcing shortwave trough and associated push of cold air will drop southwest from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic. That may bring some scattered to broken clouds in, particularly farther northwest toward northern NJ, the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos, with perhaps some flurries possible. Otherwise the rest of the area will only notice an increased west to northwest breeze.

By Thursday, the cold air will remain, with possibly the coldest morning of the week, but as stronger surface high pressure shifts east from the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic, skies should turn out sunny and be accompanied by fairly light winds.

High pressure will then slowly lift out across New England through Saturday, accompanied by a building upper-level ridge along the East Coast, that will portend a moderating trend along with more dry weather. A portion of the ensemble guidance along with the NBM suggest the next system may begin to spread some precipitation into our area as early as Sunday, so have stayed close to the 20-30 percent chance POPs from NBM blend, but probabilities for precipitation are higher for next Monday.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Early this morning (through 12Z)...Mix of VFR/MVFR over the next few hours, but clouds will increase and lower to MVFR/IFR at most terminals by daybreak. Some local fog around, however the increasing clouds overnight should keep the fog from becoming as thick as Saturday morning. Low- level wind shear (LLWS) this morning with 35-45 knots expected near 2000 feet AGL. Light and variable winds becoming locally south or southeast near 5 knots early this morning. Low confidence regarding the timing/extent of the MVFR/IFR conditions including the fog coverage.

Sunday...Sub-VFR, with IFR likely, as rain arrives late morning into the early afternoon. Rainfall will becoming heavy at times with the possibility for TSRA during the afternoon. Light and variable winds in the morning becoming southerly 5-15 knots with gusts to 25-35 knots in the afternoon, especially at KMIV and KACY. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night...Sub-VFR. RA/+RA with TSRA possible early in the evening, mainly at KMIV/KACY. S winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots will veer westerly after strong cold frontal passage. ABE/RDG may see a rain/snow mix early Monday morning, contributing to reduced visibilities. Moderate confidence in sub-VFR conditions, low confidence in timing and impacts from rain/snow mix.

Outlook...

Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in the morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. Some vis restrictions may linger as well with rain/snow mix possible for a few hours along I-95 terminals and RDG/ABE. W/NW winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots, diminishing to a W wind around 5-10 kts at night. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Would not rule out some patchy morning fog, but should be mainly in rural/outlying areas. Possibly affecting RDG or MIV. W/SW winds 5-10 kt.

Wednesday...VFR, but some broken CIGs around 030-050 may develop northwest of I-95. WNW winds 10-15 kt, G 20 kt.

Thursday...VFR. WNW winds around 5-10 kt.

MARINE

Southerly winds will continue to increase to gale force this afternoon across the Atlantic waters and into this evening across Delaware Bay. Southerly winds will peak this evening near 20-30 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts. The winds will shift abruptly to the northwest as a cold front passes offshore around midnight. Winds will then increase to gale force again by Monday morning, when gusts up to 45 kts are possible across the Atlantic waters. Winds then diminish Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Some guidance indicates some sea fog may develop near the Atlantic coast this morning, however confidence is too low to issue a Dense Fog Advisory. Widespread moderate to heavy rain and perhaps some thunder will develop as the day progresses, especially by this evening with visibility 1-3 NM. The rain will end by Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday night...Small craft likely. WNW winds diminish to 20 kts at night. Seas diminish with time to 6-8 feet at night, warranting a Small Craft Advisory to succeed the Gale Warning earlier in the day.

Tuesday...Small craft possible. WNW winds backing to WSW, around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kts, while some lingering seas from the Monday's departing storm system and stronger winds may still be above 5 ft, especially early in the day. That may keep a Small Craft Advisory in effect through a portion of Tuesday.

Wednesday...Small craft possible. While fair weather is expected, another surge of cold will result in WNW winds picking back up, sustained over 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt may occur especially over the ocean. That may result in another SCA. Seas mainly 3 to 4 ft.

Thursday...WNW winds around 10-15 kt. Seas mainly 2 to 3 ft, with sub- advisory conditions likely.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch continues for the forecast area from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Low pressure and a potent cold front will bring 2 to 3 inches of rain to the region. Excessive runoff may result in some flooding of creeks, streams, and other low- lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Most mainstem rivers are currently not forecast to go into flood, however minor flooding is forecast at Pine Brook on the Passaic River and Blackwells Mills on the Millstone River. If higher rainfall rates occur, some of the fast responding creeks may go into flood especially in southeastern Pennsylvania, and isolated flash flooding would be possible especially in urban areas.

COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding is forecasted for the back bays of coastal Ocean County during the Monday morning high tide. Strong southerly winds during the day Sunday will help build up tidewater in Barnegat Bay before a surge of west- northwest winds Monday morning will push elevated water levels into the back bays along coastal Ocean County, resulting in the potential for minor inundation on the most vulnerable roads. Additionally, spotty minor flooding cannot be ruled out for other back bay coastal communities in NJ and DE.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for NJZ014-024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ026.
DE...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ450>455.

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Charlestown, Northeast River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Sun -- 12:44 AM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:26 AM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:24 AM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:11 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     2.13 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:41 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:59 PM EST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots

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