Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charles, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:12PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 7:17 PM EST (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 3:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 639 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 639 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain overhead, then slowly drift offshore by Friday. A low pressure system will approach on Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charles, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 222105 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 405 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build eastward across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states through Thursday. This high will weaken and retreat to the northeast Friday before a storm system moves across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Friday night into Saturday. This low will strengthen as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our southwest, then across the east coast by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. High pressure remains firmly in control tonight, centered almost directly overhead. It will be a quiet night, with the main question being how cold the overnight lows will get. The overall air mass is gradually warming, but with clear skies and calm winds it should be another excellent night for radiational cooling. Went with a low temperature forecast about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than last nights' lows for most areas, but there is quite a bit of spread in the guidance and it is possible some of the usual cold spots will drop below the forecast values. The forecast lows still bring most places into the upper 10s to low 20s, near to below average for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. High pressure remains overhead during the day on Thursday before gradually starting to shift off to the northeast overnight. With mid- level heights rising a little and the overall air mass continuing to warm slowly, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Expecting highs mostly in the mid 40s. We should start the day with mainly clear skies, but high clouds will likely increase towards afternoon and evening. Lows Thursday night should be several degrees warmer than prior nights due to increased cloud cover, mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the night on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Friday through Sunday .

Quiet weather continues for Friday but as high pressure retreats to the east and low pressure advances north towards the region clouds will be on the increase through the day. Highs will be mainly in the 40s.

The main story for the weekend continues to be low pressure system that will affect the area with rain and some wintry precip in our northern zones. Heading into Friday night, primary low pressure advances north through the midwestern states with a secondary low eventually taking shape over eastern Virginia by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue retreating east through the Canadian Maritimes. Expect precip in association with this system to arrive across the area west to east mainly after midnight. Due to the low's track and there being no real cold air in place as the system moves in, this will be mainly just a rain event south of the I-78 corridor over SE PA, southern NJ, and Delmarva. However to the north for areas near and north of the I-78 and especially the I-80 corridor a wintry mix is likely as the precip moves in overnight Friday night. However the warm air advection pattern through the boundary layer looks to be quite strong so it appears even in these areas in the north the wintry mix may lean more towards sleet and freezing rain with less in the way of snow. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s over these northern areas and in the mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere with temps even tending to rise overnight.

Stormy weather continues across the area Saturday as double barreled system continues to impact the region with primary low tracking toward the eastern Great Lakes while developing secondary low moves north right across the CWA. Of note, the system will have a lot of dynamic support as there will be a deep 500 mb low moving through Ohio with diffluent flow aloft over the mid Atlantic and NE aiding in development of the coastal low. East winds will strengthen just ahead of the system as it moves through so there will be good moisture transport (PWATS .75 to 1 inch or so) and these strong onshore winds will also likely lead to some coastal flooding issues (see section below). Expect rain, heavy at times, to continue for most areas except in the far northern areas mentioned above (I-78 / I-80 corridor) where a wintry mix may persist. However even there a change to all rain is likely for a time in the afternoon except possibly over the higher terrain of the southern Poconos. Still uncertainty with exact timing, precip types, and snow/ice amounts before the changeover but snow amounts look to mostly likely be an inch or two or less with ice amounts of several hundredths of an inch possible mainly north of I-80. Elsewhere, rain continues most of the day and it could even fall hard enough to result in some urban, poor drainage flooding in spots.

The heaviest/steadiest precip finally winds down through Saturday night with the passage of the low and it could even end as a brief period of wet snow or rain/snow mix as far south as the I-95 corridor as cooler air wraps back in behind the low but don't expect this to really amount too much.

By Sunday, the low will be slowly drifting through New England with the system's upper level low continuing to circulate over the mid Atlantic and NE with the system's center to our north. This will result in continuing mainly cloudy skies with a few rain/snow showers possible, mainly north. This won't amount to much though. Highs look to be in the 30s over northern areas through the southern Poconos and NW NJ with 40s farther south.

Sunday night through Wednesday .

Quiet weather returns for the early part of next week as the low continues to move away and high pressure gradually builds back in with time. This will result in generally fair and dry weather for the period Monday through Wednesday with temperatures near if not a bit above average for this time of year.


AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. Winds nearly calm. High confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . VFR. Winds light and variable. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will be fairly light through the period. -High confidence.

Friday night . Conditions begin to lower to MVFR then IFR overnight as precipitation moves into the area. Rain is expected across southeast Pennsylvania, central/southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland. A wintry mix is possible across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Light winds become easterly overnight -Moderate confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night . Precipitation continues across the area with IFR conditions likely predominating through much of the day. KABE may still a wintry mix in the morning remaining TAF sites will see just rain. Winds shift front easterly, to north, to northwest very late day and become gusty 15-25 knots at times.-Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR during the day. Wind remain northwest 20-30 knots. -Moderate confidence.

Sunday night - Monday . Mainly VFR with NW winds around 10 knots.

MARINE.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. Light winds, mainly out of the northeast at around 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft.

OUTLOOK .

Friday-Friday night . Winds/seas build to advisory levels through Friday night ahead of approaching system.

Saturday-Sunday . Winds/seas remain at least at Advisory levels with a period of Gales possible Saturday.

Sunday night - Monday . Conditions likely to remain at Advisory levels Sunday night before diminishing below advisory levels Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a new moon on Friday, along with an onshore flow may lead to areas of coastal flooding with the high tide Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons/Robertson Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien Marine . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 9 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 32°F 39°F1031 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 20 mi53 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 43°F1030.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 21 mi53 min 33°F 39°F1030.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 29 mi53 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 39°F1031.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi53 min 36°F 40°F1030.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi47 min N 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 41°F1031.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi47 min SSW 1 G 1.9 43°F1030.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi47 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 34°F 1031.1 hPa
FSNM2 38 mi59 min S 1 G 1.9 34°F 1030.5 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi47 min 36°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi47 min 32°F 1030.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi79 minN 08.00 miFair27°F18°F70%1031.2 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi26 minNW 310.00 miFair33°F21°F61%1031.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NW3S3W5SW3SW3CalmS5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5CalmNW3W3NW4N3NW8N9N9
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N9NW6CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland
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Charlestown
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:23 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:27 PM EST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:31 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.50.1-0.1-00.20.40.70.80.70.50.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.500.71.31.7221.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:36 AM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:30 AM EST     1.94 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:45 AM EST     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:48 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:08 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:28 PM EST     2.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:27 PM EST     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.80.71.51.91.91.50.5-1.3-1.9-2.2-2.3-2.1-1.9-1.30.71.82.22.21.91.50.8-1-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.