Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charles, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:16PM Monday January 25, 2021 4:11 PM EST (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 342 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Rest of this afternoon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A slight chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow, rain and freezing rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain with a chance of freezing rain.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow and rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 342 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach today before passing through Tuesday. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday, but low pressure may impact the waters Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will return late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday, and again Thursday into Friday. Gale force winds will be possible on Thursday, possibly into Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charles, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 252050 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 350 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley tonight toward the Mid- Atlantic region on Tuesday then weaken as it moves offshore. This system will bring an extended period of unsettled and wintry weather through Tuesday night. High pressure will return across the eastern US into the end of the week and last through much of the weekend. Strong low pressure will race off the Carolina coast on Thursday yielding breezy conditions for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Another system looks to impact the region late Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern two- thirds of the country. A surface low in the central Plains is ejecting eastward, attendant to a midlevel vort max shearing out in the downstream confluent flow across the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, a strong vort max is digging southeast through the prairies of southern Canada, which will force the eastward acceleration of the southern-stream system. A zonally- oriented baroclinic zone extends to the southern Mid-Atlantic, with precipitation spreading into Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. As the baroclinic zone lifts northward somewhat this evening, a predecessor perturbation will race through the Mid-Atlantic region. With ambient boundary-layer dry air (sufficiently cool given the overcast spreading northward into the southern/central CWA today), a thump of precipitation will spread into Delmarva this evening. Model soundings suggest a few hours of strong omega in the dendritic growth zone, so if the low levels can saturate, some decent snow rates (up to a half inch per hour) may occur. Combined with wet-bulbing effects, a quick one to two inches of snow may accumulate, as advertised via much of the hi-res guidance. Have issued a winter weather advisory for Delmarva for this threat from 7 pm to 4 am.

After this initial round of precipitation, lift will be more modest and generally below the dendritic growth layer. This will likely result in considerably lighter precipitation of a variety of types. In fact, there may be little precipitation of note through the overnight hours, as the low levels farther to the north will require considerable moistening. With the appearance of model soundings and the projected larger-scale pattern, think a mixture of (very) light snow, sleet, and freezing rain will become dominant near and northwest of the I-95/I-295 corridors with transition to mainly rain in central Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Have hoisted a winter weather advisory beginning at 1 am for Carbon County PA to Middlesex County NJ southward (excluding the coastal counties of New Jersey) to convey this threat (mainly for potential of light glazing).

Forecast temperatures were kept generally colder than guidance, likely near to below freezing all night north of I-95 and the Atlantic City Expressway. They should creep upward late to the south, however.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The main vort max moves through the Northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening and will continue to weaken via shearing processes from downstream confluence. One or more surface lows will lift northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic, but given the weakening nature of the large-scale system, lift will likely remain fairly weak across the region. As a result, a long-duration period of precipitation (drizzle, freezing drizzle, light sleet, light snow, etc.) will occur across the area. Temperatures will be cold enough for sleet and freezing rain/drizzle in the morning in the urban corridor, but we are expecting temperatures to warm gradually during the day so that a transition to plain rain/drizzle and minimized impacts to travel should occur. The advisory ends for Delaware and the NJ portions of the Philadelphia metro area at 10 am and for the rest of the Philly metro by 1 pm in an attempt to time these improvements and transitions. Meanwhile, as the threat of precipitation reaches the northern CWA, the advisory expands to this region at 7 am.

The main area of concern on Tuesday and Tuesday evening is generally northwest of the Fall Line, where a potentially lengthy period of (light) icing may occur (in addition to a mix of sleet and light snow, as well). In this area, a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch of (flat) icing is expected. Temperatures will be marginal near the Fall Line and in the Lehigh Valley, so anticipated impacts here are not particularly high. However, near/north of I-80, colder temperatures will persist, which may allow for more substantial impacts to traffic.

The steadiest precipitation will likely occur just downstream of the approaching vort max, which for our area looks to be late morning to early evening. Thereafter, model soundings again are strongly reminiscent of shallow saturation. As such, a lengthy period of drizzle or freezing drizzle is expected Tuesday evening and early overnight (the freezing part generally northwest of the Fall Line). In these areas, the winter weather advisory continues through 4 am Wednesday to cover this threat. Drier air will advect into the region late in the night, which should gradually shunt the precipitation to our northeast.

Temperatures will be quite steady for this 24-hour period. A slow rise will occur on Friday, with slightly above freezing temperatures making it to the Fall Line. Little change is expected for Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Wednesday through Thursday . The weather system from the near and short term parts of the forecast will have moved away from the area with high pressure ridging across the area. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop across the lower Mississippi Valley and move towards the Carolinas by Thursday morning. This system will bring some clouds toe the area Wednesday through Thursday and we will also keep some small chance for snow across Delmarva for (mostly) Wednesday night. Right now, it appears that a trace to perhaps up to a half inch is possible. The system have been trending mostly away from the area the past few model runs, so it's possible that no impacts may occur when it finally arrives.

Thursday night thru Saturday will feature dry weather with colder than normal temperatures for much of the period. A ridge of high pressure across the Great Lakes extending south thru the Ohio Valley will move east early Friday and Saturday. Breezy conditions will be across the area Thursday night and Friday with gusts 20 to 30 mph at times. This combined with the winter-like temperatures (in the teens and 20s) will produce wind chills below zero for the southern Poconos and 0 to 10 degrees elsewhere for Thu night and Fri morning. Temperatures will moderate a little by Saturday, but with highs only in the 30 to 35 degree range, readings will still be below normal.

Saturday night and Sunday will show another weather disturbance arriving to the Middle Atlantic region. Low pressure will move up into the western Great Lakes while its associated fronts reach into our area. Another wave may form near our area, enhancing the precipitation. This is rather speculative at this time, so we will just align with our nearby office and mention (mostly) chance pops for Sat night and Sunday. P-type favors rain for Delmarva with snow or rain possible across the Delaware Valley.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR with CIGs generally 5-10 kft. Light and variable winds. High confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR this evening north of PHL, but expecting snow to move into Delmarva and southern New Jersey between 00z and 06z. Restrictions may affect ILG/MIV and perhaps even RDG/PHL/ACY depending on how north the precipitation shield makes it. However, better chances are south of the terminals, with more of a general deterioration of conditions to MVFR after 06z from southwest to northeast as light precipitation begins to move in. Precipitation type will mainly be snow initially, though some sleet and freezing rain/drizzle may mix in at PHL/ILG/ACY/MIV by 12z. ABE/TTN may remain VFR all night. Light/variable winds in the evening becoming east or east- northeast up to 10 kt after 06z. Low confidence.

Tuesday . Restrictions likely, with IFR expected at most terminals by afternoon. Precipitation types will be a challenge to forecast. Expecting mostly RA at ACY/MIV by 15z. A mix will likely dominate at ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN during the morning before transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. RDG/ABE will likely see mostly freezing rain or sleet during the day. Precipitation rates/amounts will be light. Winds mainly easterly up to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . Continued IFR conditions with drizzle (possibly freezing drizzle at RDG/ABE/TTN). Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Improvement expected, with any lingering sub-VFR likely to become VFR by midday. Northwest winds 5 to 15 kt, with potential for higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night . Still a low chance for snow, mainly south of PHL, with sub-VFR conditions possible. North to northwest winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming stronger near daybreak with gusts to 20+ kt. Low confidence.

Thursday through Friday . Mainly VFR with strong northwest winds of 10 to 20 kt with gusts 30+ kt on Thursday, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt with gusts to 20+ kt Thursday night, increasing again to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25+ kt on Friday. Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday . VFR with northwest winds up to 10 kt Friday night, increasing to 7 to 15 kt on Saturday, with perhaps higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue through tonight. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 2 to 3 feet. Winds will become easterly by Tuesday, with seas gradually building to around 4 feet. Speeds/gusts may approach advisory levels off the New Jersey coast, but currently think sub- advisory conditions will dominate. Winds will abruptly shift to west or northwest by late Tuesday night.

A burst of snow or a wintry mix is expected tonight, which may result in visibility restrictions, especially on Delaware Bay and the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters. Lingering visibility issues with light rain or drizzle are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Outlook .

Wednesday . Mainly sub-advisory conditions expected.

Wednesday night . North to northwest winds increasing rapidly, approaching gale force by night's end. A slight chance of snow, with possible visibility restrictions (primarily for Delaware Bay and the Atlantic Delaware waters).

Thursday and Thursday night . North to northwest gales likely. Seas peaking around 5 to 8 feet. Freezing spray possible Thursday night.

Friday and Friday night . At least advisory-level northwest winds continuing, with low-end gales possible on Friday. Freezing spray possible, especially Friday night.

Saturday . Sub-advisory conditions expected. Freezing spray possible early.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ055. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ054-060>062-101-103-105. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ001-007-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ009-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ016-021. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ012-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ017>019. DE . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for DEZ002>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ015-019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ012. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . CMS/Staarmann Short Term . CMS/Staarmann Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS Marine . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 9 mi54 min 37°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 20 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 36°F 30°F1019 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 21 mi54 min 35°F 38°F1018.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 29 mi60 min NNE 5.1 G 7 35°F 38°F1019.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi54 min 36°F 39°F1018.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi54 min 34°F 38°F1019.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi54 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 42°F1018.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi54 min E 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 1019.1 hPa
FSNM2 38 mi54 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 1018.2 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi54 min 36°F 20°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 7 36°F 39°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi74 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F16°F46%1019.7 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi21 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F14°F40%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmNE3E4E3--NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago----------------------------------------NW6----N3
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland
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Charlestown
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:54 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:53 PM EST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.20.10.20.40.60.70.70.60.30-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.40.91.41.71.81.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:00 AM EST     1.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:48 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:20 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:59 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:38 PM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.71.21.61.81.60.8-1.1-1.7-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.7-1.20.11.41.92.11.91.50.8-0.8-1.3-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.