Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amanda, OH

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:27AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amanda, OH
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location: 39.6, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 251433
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1033 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will drift away from the region today with
moisture increasing from the south by late tonight. Widespread
showers are expected Monday with precipitation chances lingering
through Tuesday. Drier and cooler conditions are expected past
midweek.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface high pressure centered over new england will drift
away from the region today. Upper level moisture will be on the
increase during the afternoon ahead of an h5 S w.

Adjusted highs down a degree or two due to the increasing
clouds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Although the near term period will be a quiet one, the same
cannot be said about the short term period. Past midnight
tonight, the nosing of a seasonably modest LLJ (courtesy of
850mb-925mb winds of about 30kts) will allow for a tremendous
moisture transport to evolve into initially the southern and
western third or so of the iln fa through the heart of the
overnight period. During this time period, pwats will go from
about 1" to nearly 2" in only an 8-10 hour period (especially
for the tri-state area). This will initially manifest itself in
an increase in cloud cover, with progressively lower and lower
cigs to move in from the southwest in the predawn hours on
Monday. The rapid saturation of the profile, in conjunction with
midlevel energy progressing northeast from the tennessee valley
to the ohio valley, will allow for widespread showers to
overspread the iln fa Monday morning into the afternoon. While
an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out,
the poor lapse rates and nearly saturated profile will likely
keep thunder limited -- even during the typical diurnally-
favored time period in the afternoon. Have seen an uptick trend
in precipitation coverage and amounts in several deterministic
and ensemble solutions for the Monday time period (with the
operational GFS on the lower end of the GEFS qpf envelope) --
so have increased pops and QPF accordingly to trend toward a
more widespread rain event.

The onset of precipitation will likely be occurring before
daybreak across parts of northern kentucky and perhaps extreme
southeastern indiana into southwestern ohio. There are some
subtle timing differences in the various solutions regarding
exactly how quickly the precipitation moves in and how fast the
initially drier profile is able to be overcome. Nevertheless,
will see widespread showers overspreading the local area through
Monday morning and afternoon -- with indications of amounts
between 0.50"-1.0" very likely near and west of the i-75
corridor into parts of north-central ky by Monday evening. The
heaviest and most widespread activity will initially be focused
across the tri-state area before progressing north east through
the day. Rainfall amounts are likely to taper somewhat from sw
to NE -- with parts of central oh more likely to see around
0.25-0.50" through the day (specifically afternoon evening for
these locations).

With the overspreading of thicker cirrus and cloud cover by late
tonight, will see generally warmer temperatures than has been
the case the past several overnight periods as lows only bottom
out in the low to mid 60s from NE to sw. Highs on Monday will be
held considerably below seasonal norms with the expectation for
thick cloud cover and widespread showers throughout nearly the
entire daytime period for some spots. Temps will top out in the
lows 70s (sw w) to the mid upper 70s (ne e).

Although a gradual tapering off of the precipitation is expected
toward Monday evening, will likely see some scattered showers
linger in parts of the iln fa even through Monday night before a
cold front approaches with renewed precipitation chances Tuesday
afternoon evening.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
A broad upper level trough will remain across the great lakes region
through much of the week. Mid level short wave energy will rotate
through the base of the trough Monday night into Tuesday, helping to
push an associated cold front east across the ohio valley. This will
lead to an increasing chance of showers through the day on Tuesday.

Instability will be fairly marginal, but with increasing wind fields
through the day, will allow for at least a chance for some embedded
thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Drier air will try to move in behind the front Tuesday night but
some additional mid level short wave energy will pivot across the
region through the day on Wednesday. This may be enough to produce a
few showers through the day but think the wetter GFS may be
overdone. Will therefore maintain a dry forecast for Wednesday at
this time. Highs on Wednesday will again be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Surface high pressure will build east across the ohio valley
Thursday into Friday. This will result in dry conditions. A
weakening frontal boundary will push south into the region Friday
night into Saturday, leading to a slight chance of showers.

Temperatures through the remainder of the long term period will
remain slightly below normal with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
for Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
Other than a few passing cirrus, mainly clear skies are expected
through the morning hours. A fewVFR CU may again
develop expand this afternoon as thicker cirrus gradually
overspreads the region from the southwest through the day.

Between 06z-12z, a tremendous increase in deep layer moisture
will allow for rapid saturation of the profile progressively
from southwest to northeast early Monday morning. This will
occur coincident with a shield of shra fcst to move north into
the southern ohio valley by daybreak. As of right now, this is
only included in the kcvg and kluk fcsts late in the period.

Expect ifr CIGS and potentially MVFR vsbys to overspread the
southern terminals through Monday morning before these
restrictions spread further north east through the afternoon
hours. With a nearly saturated profile developing in the low
levels, do think that CIGS between 800-1200ft will evolve for at
least brief stretches Monday morning (in a several hour period
after 12z) -- especially for kcvg, kluk, and potentially even
kday.

Light northeasterly winds will go more easterly later today but
remain generally 10kts or less. A shift to more east-
southeasterly will evolve tonight before relaxing somewhat and
going more southeasterly Monday morning.

Outlook... Ifr CIGS possible Monday. Thunderstorms are possible
on Monday and Tuesday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Kc
near term... Sites
short term... Kc
long term... Jgl
aviation... Kc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Fairfield County Airport, OH10 mi25 minSSE 1010.00 miFair74°F55°F52%1021.2 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH21 mi78 minSSE 910.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHQ

Wind History from LHQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE8NE9NE10E8E7NE5NE8NE6NE4NE6----N3----CalmCalm--CalmE4--E4E7
1 day agoN7NE8N8N7NE6N8N6N4N6N3N3--------W3CalmW3W3CalmCalmN3NE5NE8
2 days agoS5SW5SW55W8W4W7N5NE3Calm------NE6--E3--E7NE4E4NE4--NE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.