Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:50 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 051723 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 123 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region into the middle part of next week, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Slightly cooler and drier air will return by the end of the week, although rain chances may persist at times into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Subtle adjustments were made to the ongoing fcst this morning, mainly to sky cover/temps as an axis of clearing has worked its way into the Miami Valley and Tri-State regions, allowing for temps to jump a bit quicker than the cloudier surroundings.
Nevertheless, the main expectations for today remain unchanged as a few ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop by mid afternoon, particularly near/E of I-71 into central OH, as a weak front moves through the area. There is some hint of stronger deep layer shear and instability overlapping near the Columbus metro in the afternoon, as represented by SPC marginal risk, so an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out.
Forecast highs are generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s (especially in N KY).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An area of high pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday night while zonal upper level flow persists. South of the high, a cold front is expected to be sinking southward into the Ohio Valley. The frontal boundary is forecast to reach near the Ohio River before stalling late overnight into the early morning hours.
Rain chances should remain fairly low overnight and confined to the warm sector south of the cold front. Winds shift to the north behind the front. Lows drop into the 50s north of the front while remaining the the lower 60s south of the front.

The surface high remains to the north of the Ohio Valley on Monday which helps keep the stalled front near or just north of the Ohio River through the day. A fairly strong dew point gradient and small temperature gradient should be observed by the afternoon. Areas south of the front should have dew points rising into the 60s while areas north of the boundary have forecast dew points remaining in the 50s. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain mostly confined to areas in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky in the afternoon where some instability may develop overlapping the best moisture. Very isolated locally heavy downpours in slowly moving shower/storms could develop.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Broad upper level troughing over the western two thirds of the CONUS will shift slowly east through mid week, keeping the Ohio Valley in persistent west to southwest flow aloft. This will allow for a series of embedded mid level short waves to move through the region Tuesday through Thursday. At the surface, a frontal boundary along the Ohio River will lift north across the area through the day on Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will combine with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to produce surface based capes into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. This will result in fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday into Tuesday evening and with strong deep layer shear develop through the day, some severe storms can be expected.

A trailing cold front will push southeast across our area Tuesday night before stalling out heading into Wednesday morning. There is then some uncertainty as to how far back to the north the front will lift through the day on Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Along and south of the boundary, good instability will develop with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms possible once again. With strong deep layer shear persisting and the approach of a surface low, severe storms will again be possible.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A cold front will then push off to our southeast later Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to lower pcpn chances and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Additional short wave energy dropping down across the Great Lakes will help deepen the trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday through Sunday. This will keep us in a cooler airmass with daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s. This will also keep some lingering lower end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mix of MVFR/VFR diurnally-enhanced Cu has expanded with daytime heating, but expect that CIGs should gradually transition to more VFR within the first hour or so of the TAF period (if they haven't already done so).

For early in the TAF period, still expecting a few SHRA/TSRA to develop near KCMH/KLCK through about 22z or so before the activity pushes further to the E. Confidence is somewhat low regarding coverage, but there seems to be enough of a signal for a few SHRA/TSRA around central OH to add a TEMPO. Elsewhere, a stray SHRA/TSRA cannot be completely ruled out at KILN, but would expect that activity should focus a bit further E of the site.

Conditions will trend dry area-wide by/past 00z before more widespread SHRA/TSRA moves in from the SW past 09z, impacting KCVG/KLUK by daybreak. But until we get to that, some BR/FG will be possible once again tonight, especially as mainly skies (except for some cirrus) should evolve from 00z through about 09z. With ample rainfall in recent days and mostly clear skies and relatively light/variable/calm winds, the potential for some patchy fog/VSBY reductions exists, especially for KILN/KCVG/KLUK.

MVFR CIGs and VSBYs coincident with pcpn are expected to spread in from the SW past daybreak. A few uncertainties in just how far N the activity spreads, with a sharp cutoff likely near KCMH/KLCK by the end of the period. Fairly widespread pcpn is expected further S toward KILN/KCVG/KLUK between 12z-18z.

Light WNW winds will become more northerly (at ~3-5kts) around 00z before going easterly by daybreak and eventually out of the ESE by Monday afternoon. Winds should remain 10kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day through Thursday. MVFR conditions are possible Tuesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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