Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halfway, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:32PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 436 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters this evening as low pressure intensifies to the northeast. High pressure will approach for Thursday before settling overhead Friday. High pressure will move offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halfway, MD
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location: 39.62, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161904
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
304 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will intensify today as it moves off the mid-
atlantic coast. A strong cold front will pass through late this
afternoon into this evening while the rapidly intensifies off to
our northeast. The low will move toward new england later
tonight and Thursday before high pressure returns for Friday and
into Saturday. Low pressure may impact the area Sunday before a
cold front approaches next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Cold occluded front crossing the area at this time. Southern stream
low pressure across southeast virginia; this will be the feature
that will eject into the atlantic and deepen rapidly. The back edge
of the rain also crossing the area. While its possible for a few
additional showers in the dry slot, the bulk of the rain has
fallen. Due to shear, some interesting structures present, but
air mass is stable. Will be adjusting late afternoon precip
grids shortly.

Wind forecasts aloft increasing mostly as projected, but the 12z
cycle suggesting the core of winds closer to 40-50 kt. The concern
remains how much will mix, as momentum transfer typically less than
ideal coincident with a nocturnal inversion. Keeping a forecast
near mean layer mixed, which is still 25-30 kt almost areawide
and up to 40kt across the ridge tops. No changes to wind
advisories, but admittedly it will be close in spots.

Temperatures will drop behind the front tonight as cold advection
increases. However, am skeptical as to how quickly the boundary
layer cools; NAM may be too cold. Ingredients for upslope
precipitation still in place, and it will be cold enough for some
wet snow to mix, especially after midnight. However, have scaled
back how much accumulating snow this might be... Especially since
the ground should remain warm.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
Deep cyclogenesis will be the primary weather factor Thursday. The
pressure gradient will be favorable for rather deep mixing. How
deep, and how strong the winds will be, depends upon the computer
model. Have increased wind forecasts for Thursday, producing gusts
barely below advisory threshold for metro baltimore (and for that
matter, most of maryland). The gradient will have less of an
influence south and west... But still a windy day. Upslope
precipitation will continue, but temperatures will be too warm for
anything other than light rain.

High pressure will build for Friday. Both Thursday night-Friday
morning and Friday night will be chilly, especially Friday
night when winds will be light and radiational cooling will be
more favorable.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure sitting over our region Saturday will start to shift
northeastward out of our region. Winds will slowly become southerly
to southeasterly ahead of an approaching coastal system.

Temperatures during the day will be near normal in the mid to upper
60s with overnight temps in the 40s to low 50s.

The Sunday to Monday period remains very uncertain at this time. The
models have a tropical low forming over the gulf of mexico and
moving northward through the southeastern us and up along the
eastern seaboard. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on how
far this coastal system reaches into our region. At this time there
remains a threat for another system late Sunday into Monday. This
system has the potential to bring significant rain to our area.

Models indicate the potential for pw's as high as 1.5 to 1.7 which
in october is pretty high. We will need to continue to monitor the
model trends to determine the exact track of this system. At this
time the main threat area for the coastal storm will be central
virginia and southern maryland.

A strong cold front is forecast to move through our region Tuesday
into Wednesday. Depending on the timing and track of the coastal low
the day before, these two systems could merge to bring significant
amount of precipitation to our region again on Wednesday. This
system looks to move fully through our area by Wednesday morning.

Behind the frontal passage temperatures are expected to be near or
slightly below normal on Wednesday.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Flight conditions fluctuating at this time, but ample ifr abounds.

Conditions will be improving for the rest of the afternoon into
tonight.VFR should prevail for the remainder of the week.

Northwest winds will increase before dark, with widespread 25-30 kt
gusts expected through Thursday afternoon. Some gusts of 35 kt (or
perhaps a pinch more) possible. Winds will crease Thursday night and
Friday.

The majority of our region should experience mainlyVFR conditions
Saturday and Sunday. The main threat for restrictions will be in
central virginia and the cho terminal.VFR conditions expected at
this time.

Marine
A cold front crossing the waters at this time, with sporadic gusty
winds. Have a small craft advisory in place. Any higher gusts (or
waterspouts) will trigger special marine warnings. This threat
should be ending by dark.

Synoptic winds will increase this evening, and be strong gusty
through Thursday. Already had a gale warning for the waters
tonight. Have expanded it to all waters for Thursday... 40 kt
northern bay, 35 kt drum point-smith point tangier sound potomac
river (further away from rapidly strengthening nor'easter).

Small craft conditions likely will linger into Thursday night
and perhaps Friday.

Winds will remain light on Saturday. Winds above the 18 knot
threshold will be possible on Sunday. Small craft advisories may be
needed on Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have increased substantially today. Have expanded
coastal flood advisory for most areas baltimore south as well as
dahlgren gauge and SW dc on the potomac for the pm tide cycle.

Strong northwest winds tonight will then lead to blow-out
conditions; threat should last for only one cycle.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Thursday for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
mdz501.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for mdz016.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mdz017-
018.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for mdz011.

Va... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
vaz503-504-507-508.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for vaz057.

Wv... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
wvz501-503-505-506.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz530>534-536>543.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis...

near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts jmg
tides coastal flooding... Hts klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi61 min NW 8 G 13 60°F 68°F999.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi61 min NNW 8 G 14 60°F 69°F997.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 72 mi61 min WNW 20 G 23 60°F 997.6 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD7 mi62 minNW 910.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1002.1 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi62 minWNW 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1001.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE6SE6SE8S8W3S6S12S12S6SE6SE6SE6SE3SE5SE12SE11
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1 day agoW8NW6CalmN3N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5NW5CalmNW3NW3NW3CalmCalmS6CalmS6CalmSE4S7
2 days agoCalmSE3S3CalmE3E5NE5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSE3S5S6SE4SE5S6SW9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:50 AM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:07 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.21.610.60.40.40.91.62.42.932.72.21.50.90.50.30.40.81.72.63.23.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.